Charley Advisories

[Skywatch_NC]

Glad to have something else to watch now...since TD2's death last week and Hurricane Alex!

Eric

[lilbump3000]

TD 2 might cool the waters off some but the waters are basicly 90 degrees. Once TD2 or what ever name storm it be by time its done the waters might still be 86-87 degrees.

[zoeyann]

I was wondering the same thing Cajunmama glad you brought that up

[Derek Ortt]

Isabel reached peak intensity voer Isidore's cold wake. TD wont even create that type of cold wake

[NorthGaWeather]

The water will cool maybe 2 degrees at most and this system isn't that strong and upwelling will not be significant. I'd still expect 88-90 degree temps in the Central and Eastern Gulf.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Could very well be an interesting couple of days

[CajunMama]

Thanks guys for the explanations. See ya'll in chat tonight, bet it'll be a busy one! Zoeyann...us women must think alike! lol

[lilbump3000]

Even though the GFS model stinks, on there 12Z run they have this system coming up the mouth of the river than just sitting there and then go inland somewere near alabama and the florida panhandle.

[vbhoutex]

Everyone enjoy your Crow

No crow for me.(FOR ONCE!!! ) I said earlier this one was the one to bet on.

It does have to slow down some but for right now it is definitely looking like it could be the biggest player so far this season.

Not about to turn my eyes away from the GOM though-NOT FOR ONE SECOND!!!!

[zoeyann]

Well it was a great question. Lili scared the daylights out of me. I live in southern Terrebonne Parish and I was afraid a monster had snuck up on me without enough time to get my kids out of here.

[SouthernWx]

I agree Derek...this storm just has "that look" to it. As I watched the latest satellite images this morning, this system reminded me somewhat of hurricane Gilbert during his formative stage in 1988. While I DON'T believe or forecast this storm will ever reach cat-5 intensity (because few hurricanes ever do), I do believe it will become a significant hurricane in a few days, possibly the second major hurricane of the 2004 season.

[Guest]

FOLKS

as most of you know I dont hype canes... (TD 2 Chtantal Chris Debby) BUT I am not afraid to bang the gong when it is necessary either ( Floyd Isabel Bonnie) . There are rules and guidelines we can use that have been published regarding synoptic patterns and Hurricane forecasting.

As I stated in my hurricane forecast the KEY aspect to Major Gulf canes is the development of TD ot TS in the caribberan. To be sure OCCASIONALLY there is the OPAL or BRET system that develops ONLY in the Gulf and reaches cat 3 or 4 ...

but for the most part infamous canes like BELUAH CARLA CAMILLE FRDERICK CARMEN ALLEN ELENA all developed as Tropical cyclones NOT IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT IN THE WESTERN/ CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. And not surprisingly Most of these infamous hurricanes were massive TC.

However over the last few years there have been NO major canes in the Gulf and many system in the caribbean either die or never develop. ... and as many here have Noticed there have been NO BIG Gulf of mexico canes either though Lilli came close.

TD 3 is HUGE system for a TD...

If this system survives the next 4-5 days this has a good chance to become a significant Gulf Hurricane.... right now based on the synoptic pattern Odds strongly favor the eastern Gulf of Mexico-- no further west then 90 LONG....

But again IF it survives. TD 3 will be another test to see if the relative shear problem has diminished. Right now TD 3 does NOT appear to be moving too fast... so the RELATIVE SHEAR -- IE the LLC racing east away from the convection -- does NOT appear to be a problem.

In addition.... I do NOT see any SIGNIFICANT intensification untill TD 3 pulls away from the coastline. TD 3 has GOT to keep a 280 or 290 course... IF TD 3 heads due WEST the close proximity to south America and dry air will inhibit development .

As for the landfall... by Day 5 a new very deep trough will be in place over the Midwest... BUT this time there will be RIDGE located over the western Atlantic intervening between the trough base and developing TC.

This trough will wear away the western Flank of the Ridge over the Bahamas and allow a NW then N turn AT SOME point. Thus it favors a central or eastern Gulf event... and as the new trough comes in to the Pacific NW... the ridge will build over TX and may esnure protection for that area.

[jlauderdal]

FOLKS

as most of you know I dont hype canes... (TD 2 Chtantal Chris Debby) BUT I am not afraid to bang the gong when it is necessary either ( Floyd Isabel Bonnie) . There are rules and guidelines we can use that have been published regarding synoptic patterns and Hurricane forecasting.

As I stated in my hurricane forecast the KEY aspect to Major Gulf canes is the development of TD ot TS in the caribberan. To be sure OCCASIONALLY there is the OPAL or BRET system that develops ONLY in the Gulf and reaches cat 3 or 4 ...

but for the most part infamous canes like BELUAH CARLA CAMILLE FRDERICK CARMEN ALLEN ELENA all developed as Tropical cyclones NOT IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT IN THE WESTERN/ CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. And not surprisingly Most of these infamous hurricanes were massive TC.

However over the last few years there have been NO major canes in the Gulf and many system in the caribbean either die or never develop. ... and as many here have Noticed there have been NO BIG Gulf of mexico canes either though Lilli came close.

TD 3 is HUGE system for a TD...

If this system survives the next 4-5 days this has a good chance to become a significant Gulf Hurricane.... right now based on the synoptic pattern Odds strongly favor the eastern Gulf of Mexico-- no further west then 90 LONG....

But again IF it survives. TD 3 will be another test to see if the relative shear problem has diminished. Right now TD 3 does NOT appear to be moving too fast... so the RELATIVE SHEAR -- IE the LLC racing east away from the convection -- does NOT appear to be a problem.

In addition.... TD has GOT to keep a 280 or 290 course... IF TD 3 heads due WEST the close proximity to south America and dry air will inhibit development .

As for the landfall... by Day 5 a new very deep trough will be in place over the Midwest... BUT this time there will be RIDGE located over the western Atlantic intervening between the trough base and developing TC.

This trough will wear away the western Flank of the Ridge over the Bahamas and allow a NW then N turn AT SOME point. Thus it favors a central or eastern Gulf event... and as the new trough comes in to the Pacific NW... the ridge will build over TX and may esnure protection for that area.

Thank DT. Your insight is always thoughful and usually correct.

[Typhoon_Willie]

You forget about the possibility of TD#2 developing as MWatkins has mentioned in another thread...If that happens then TD 3 may be forced northward a bit sooner than forecasted!

[Guest]

There is a better chance of ralph nader winning the presidency than NON thing that was once TD 2 developing into a TC

You forget about the possibility of TD#2 developing as MWatkins has mentioned in another thread...If that happens then TD 3 may be forced northward a bit sooner than forecasted!

[Dave C]

This is one to break the rules and strengthen as it passes through the east and central Carrabean, at least that's what the TPC forecast indicates. Nice anti-cyclonic flow noticeable in the high clouds ahead of the system.

[Stormcenter]

There is a better chance of ralph nader winning the presidency than NON thing that was once TD 2 developing into a TC

You forget about the possibility of TD#2 developing as MWatkins has mentioned in another thread...If that happens then TD 3 may be forced northward a bit sooner than forecasted!

Ralph Nader wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brent]

There is a better chance of ralph nader winning the presidency than NON thing that was once TD 2 developing into a TC

You forget about the possibility of TD#2 developing as MWatkins has mentioned in another thread...If that happens then TD 3 may be forced northward a bit sooner than forecasted!

ROFLMAO!!!!!!! That was hilarious.



So your saying it has no chance?

[Derek Ortt]

teh observations indicate about the carib is that the e and c carib is either very favorable or unfavorable and storms either rapidly intensify or dissipate. This one looks to rapidly intensify

[rainstorm]

good write-up. personally, i think of 3 areas to watch, the area east of florida has the most potential, and will head toward bermuda