Charley Advisories

Josephine96 · #961 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:39 am

South Florida, Central Florida, the whole state.. who knows lol.. We just have to wait and see

Website · #962 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:41 am

I think the NHC is too low on intensity and too far south with the track. I expect a sizable westward shift at 5pm. That gives it more time over water. Cat 2 seems likely with a good chance of being a Cat 3. :eek:

hurricanefreak1988 · #963 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:41 am

You just called Charley a girl, how could you :lol:

Josephine96 · #964 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:42 am

Still see it coming to Central or South Florida, Brent..?

wxcsi · #965 Postby **wxcsi** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:43 am

Air Force Met wrote:It doesn't really matter if it says 105 or 135...it shows that the conditions are ripe for strengthening. The only thing about the model intensity forecast people need to remember is that when they are right on...it was the luck of the draw. As my dad says...even a blind squirrel gets the acorn every once in a while.

Obviously. But if the model is taken literally, which my post says I do not, a storm of that intensity would bring winds down from 950mb to the surface. A reduction of whatever % as the poster described would not be valid.

M

Josephine96 · #966 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:43 am

corpusbreeze · #967 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:43 am

What if Bonnie strengthens more and doesn't move as fast as the NHC thinks thus blocking the effects of the trough and Charley slides underneath?

opera ghost · #968 Postby **opera ghost** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:45 am

I think it's the phreaky spelling that's throwing people off.

Charlie looks right to me.
I keep reading it as Charlene.

I keep hearing this bit about missing the trough- what are the actual chances of that?

Aimless · #969 Postby **Aimless** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:47 am

hadn't thought about it before
"Charlie" ... male
"Charley" .. female or a perfume :-)

frederic79 · #970 Postby **frederic79** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:48 am

up until now had Charley clipping Jamacia or hitting it head on. Clearly Charley is still moving due west and will miss Jamacia. Hmmm...

#971 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:49 am

lookout wrote:It sure looks to me like on latest visible loops charley is moving more west and will miss Jamaica entirely unless she takes a sharp turn northwest now. IF it is indeed the case, nhc will need to rethink their sharp hook. my personal view is the florida panhandle still but it all depends on the apparently west motion. unless of course my eyes are decieving me, does anyone else see this?

He sure does look like he's moving due west. Man what is it with there tropical systems? They never seem to follow directions.

Josephine96 · #972 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:50 am

Charley is being a bad boy lol..

c5Camille · #973 Postby **c5Camille** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:50 am

probably more like Apalachee area...

Josephine96 · #974 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:51 am

I don't think so Camille.. I think it'll be SW or Central Florida..

opera ghost · #975 Postby **opera ghost** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:51 am

Stormcenter wrote:
lookout wrote:It sure looks to me like on latest visible loops charley is moving more west and will miss Jamaica entirely unless she takes a sharp turn northwest now. IF it is indeed the case, nhc will need to rethink their sharp hook. my personal view is the florida panhandle still but it all depends on the apparently west motion. unless of course my eyes are decieving me, does anyone else see this?

He sure does look like he's moving due west. Man what is it with there tropical systems? They never seem to follow directions.

Just like a man not to stop and ask for directions....

*ducks the rotten fruit* Couldn't help it! Sorry! Sorry!

Stormchaser16 · #976 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:51 am

Yea Charley is only moving at 18MPH now, even if it were moving faster it would still develop......

I would check some information RTD.... think ya need a brush up here

c5Camille · #977 Postby **c5Camille** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:52 am

negative...
have you looked at a single model run that has
been done since the shift?

i have seen 3 and each has the storm passing well west of
tampa...

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

RevDodd · #978 Postby **RevDodd** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:53 am

"The GDFL has charley right over us with 80 winds here in Lumberton NC? whats with that?"

Saw that this morning. Remember that's a good 20 percent faster than ground level...though sustained winds in the 60 mph range are nsty enough.

Is the GFDL alone in showing this kind of strength after Charlie bumps out of Florida? I'm not sure about reading the other models.

Thanks and good luck! Doesn't look like a good weekend for golf at Puppy Creek.

Josephine96 · #979 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:55 am

Yes I have looked at the models.. but remember.. this apparent west movement that may be going on could only be a wobble..

Josephine96 · #980 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:55 am

and besides.. It's Charley's decision where he wants to go.. not a computer lol

Charley Advisories

all NHC forecast tracks

Re: Charley looks like shes moving west and will miss jamaic

Re: Charley looks like shes moving west and will miss jamaic

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