Charley Advisories

[Stormchaser16]

Uhhhhhhh recon was finding 995 MB

[Brent]

Floridians, don't read the last line.

Tropical Storm Charley Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 11, 2004

Data from the hurricane hunters indicate that Charley has been
moving a little to the south of the previously estimated track so
the center has been relocated slightly. There has been some
slowing of the forward speed and initial motion is roughly 285/16.
The track forecast scenario remains about the same. Charley is
expected to gradually curve to the right around the western
periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticylone. This is indicated by
all of the dynamical guidance...with subtle differences in how
sharp the curve will be over the next couple of days. Only small
changes in this curve will have important implications on the
impact of Charley on South Florida. The current NHC forecast is a
little south of the previous one in the early going...but
essentially blends into the previous one after 24 hours. The
slightly southward location and slower forward speed results in the
same forecast point at 48 hours as in the previous advisory...so
watches for portions of the Florida peninsula have not yet been
issued. These will likely be required later today.
The aircraft data showed a closed eyewall and the central pressure
was down to 995 mb...although on a subsequent fix it was 996 mb.
Based on flight-level winds...the cyclone is nearing hurricane
intensity. Charley looks well organized on morning visible images.
There is well-established upper-level outflow pattern and vertical
shear is expected to remain low for for the next couple of days.
Therefore the main impediment to strengthening will be land.
However the land masses of Jamaica...and even western Cuba...are
not likely to have much impact. The official forecast generally
shows strengthening in reasonable agreement with the latest ships
output. As always...there is limited skill in predicting tropical
cyclone intensity. Charley has the potential to be a stronger
hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico than indicated here.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/1500z 16.5n 76.1w 60 kt
12hr VT 12/0000z 17.9n 78.4w 70 kt
24hr VT 12/1200z 20.0n 80.9w 75 kt
36hr VT 13/0000z 22.7n 82.0w 80 kt...on coast of Cuba
48hr VT 13/1200z 25.0n 82.5w 80 kt
72hr VT 14/1200z 34.0n 79.0w 50 kt...inland
96hr VT 15/1200z 44.0n 71.0w 35 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 16/1200z 51.0n 55.0w 35 kt...extratropical

[Weatherboy1]

I agree that here in Palm Beach County, FL, we will likely NOT see a direct hit. But I AM concerned that the models may be underplaying the trough and putting this thing further W than where it may end up. My basis for those assertions: Every single trough this season has been massive and unheard of in strength for this time of year. Why would this one be any different? As for the models, I remember Irene in 1999 very well -- storm in a similar area, similar in strength, forecast to move up the W coast of FL with most model runs, etc. But every run back then seemed to move further to the E, and then the storm moved even further E than the models.

I am NOT -removed-, only pointing out other non-model factors that MAY come into play, and perhaps should be factored in along with the models.

[tallbunch]

once is crosses FL, does anyone see this going to the Atlantic and striking east coast?

[rbaker]

and chris-fit if it goes on that track you' ll be on the right side, which is the worse side there in mlb.

[MWatkins]

WTNT43 KNHC 111450
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS BEEN
MOVING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK SO
THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 285/16.
THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. CHARLEY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE. THIS IS INDICATED BY
ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
SHARP THE CURVE WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONLY SMALL
CHANGES IN THIS CURVE WILL HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE
IMPACT OF CHARLEY ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE EARLY GOING...BUT
ESSENTIALLY BLENDS INTO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 24 HOURS. THE
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD LOCATION AND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED RESULTS IN THE
SAME FORECAST POINT AT 48 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE NOT YET BEEN
ISSUED. THESE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED A CLOSED EYEWALL AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
WAS DOWN TO 995 MB...ALTHOUGH ON A SUBSEQUENT FIX IT WAS 996 MB.
BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE CYCLONE IS NEARING HURRICANE
INTENSITY. CHARLEY LOOKS WELL ORGANIZED ON MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES.
THERE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING WILL BE LAND.
HOWEVER THE LAND MASSES OF JAMAICA...AND EVEN WESTERN CUBA...ARE
NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY
SHOWS STRENGTHENING IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS
OUTPUT. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY. CHARLEY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONGER
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAN INDICATED HERE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 16.5N 76.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.9N 78.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 20.0N 80.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 22.7N 82.0W 80 KT...ON COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 13/1200Z 25.0N 82.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1200Z 44.0N 71.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1200Z 51.0N 55.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[CaptinCrunch]

I say major, Strong C3 or mabye a C4. It will depends own what track it takes and how long it gets held up in the GOM.

[Trader Ron]

Local Met here in Naples says Landfall just NORTH of Charlotte Harbor.
I'm still thinking Apalachicola...

[chris_fit]

Channel 8 Says Charlie will be at CATERGORY 1 at landafall and made it VERY CLEAR. Also that Bonnie will NOT become a Hurricane... pretty Bold Statements!

~Chris

[Trader Ron]

Don't even want to think of 134 MPH winds....

[lookout]

It sure looks to me like on latest visible loops charley is moving more west and will miss Jamaica entirely unless she takes a sharp turn northwest now. IF it is indeed the case, nhc will need to rethink their sharp hook. my personal view is the florida panhandle still but it all depends on the apparently west motion. unless of course my eyes are decieving me, does anyone else see this?

[rtd2]

MOVING TOO FAST to reach that type of strength

[Josephine96]

Yes I'd say so.. Charlie could still explode since the waters are very warm.. The next 2 days will be very interesting..

[donsutherland1]

At this point in time, one of the hurricane analog tracks I've been looking at is Hurricane #5 (1856). It would not surprise me if one adjusts this track to landfall approximately 3°-4° South and up to 1° East that one could have a reasonable idea of Charley's track to initial landfall. In short, I'd be concerned about possible landfall from Tampa through the Panhandle.

<img src="http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1856/5/track.gif">

However, I'm not sure that the trough will be so strong nor will there be any strong frontal passages to send it back out to sea on an east-northeastward track following its landfall. I continue to believe that it has a reasonable chance at attaining Category 2 status and after it makes landfall, a more northeasterly than east-northeasterly track is likely.

[Guest]

I strongly disagree with TPC on both BONNIE and charley HERE..

TPC is way too weak on Bonnie... CLEARLY she is in here intesification phase right now .... they are going to be playing catch up here all day and night on Bonnie. The comeback has been stunning but not unprecedented....

However IMO they are making a mistake with Charley 11am track... Their 11 am Discussion says that

HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS BEEN
MOVING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK SO THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH.

Yet they end up with the same track into SW FL... I suppose one could argue that b/c he has slowed down some the turn might be a bit sharper.

[Guest]

Yes see my earlier thread...

It sure looks to me like on latest visible loops charley is moving more west and will miss Jamaica entirely unless she takes a sharp turn northwest now. IF it is indeed the case, nhc will need to rethink their sharp hook. my personal view is the florida panhandle still but it all depends on the apparently west motion. unless of course my eyes are decieving me, does anyone else see this?

[lilbump3000]

Well to me it looks like its moving due west as well.

[HURAKAN]

In don't know what it's your opinion but in every advisory South Florida looks to be more and more in trouble, maybe the full impact will be here but we will remember Charley for a few years to come.

[Josephine96]

It may indeed move a little west.. but that could mean nothing since it's still expected to take the Northward jog and move NE after that..

[Guest]

The GDFL has charley right over us with 80 winds here in Lumberton NC? whats with that?