Frances Advisories

[kittcat]

I too believe the Carolinas will be threatened. I've lived in S Florida for 20 years and have found that generally the storms look threatening to Florida in the beginning of the forecast, but as they get closer they turn north. A front usually turns them away. I just hope that it happens sooner than later because its such a disruption to have to prepare for a hit. And....you have to. You can't risk it, even though you know that it's not coming your way.

[Matthew5]

Derek what do you think of that thing off the southeastern United states!

[Josephine96]

True.. Carolinians are used to this kinda thing by now I'm sure...

[tallbunch]

It's funny how no one ever mentions the GA coast.

[huricanwatcher]

It's funny how no one ever mentions the GA coast.

just cause GA is kinda sucked back in there ..... and the bullseye is on NC

[Brent]

The fish storm scenario is looking less and less likely.

[Josephine96]

True Willie.. too soon to say.. but so true

[boca]

SE Florida seems to have a protective shield that makes hurricanes come close, but deflects them in another direction.

[AussieMark]

It's funny how no one ever mentions the GA coast.

Georgia was last hit by a fully fledged Hurricane in 1979 (David).


The last major to strike georgia was the Hurricane of 1893.

[DESTRUCTION5]

A CAT 3 now....I have no doubts that we will see Major Cane # 3 with in Hrs...Its Show time..

[boca]

I think Carolina is still beating Florida in this yearly game.

[RevDodd]

TLHR:

All I had to do was walk in the office this morning and ask my boss what he was planning to do on Labor Day weekend and he gave me that "Oh, Lord! Not again!" look

Between Fran and Floyd, we've had it with F'n storms.

Here's Fran's track
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif
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And Floyd's track
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif
--------------

ugh!

[Stormcenter]

stormcenter~

What are your reasons for her turning out to sea?

My reason for the "out to sea" scenario is purely based on the
storms currently location and movement plus historical paths of storms in that same area during this time of the year. Now if Frances were to start moving due west (unlikely at the moment) then I would be more concerned for the East Coast. As I said this just my opinion and I would not rule out a Andrew type path.

[Josephine96]

How do you know it's a Cat 3 already? The advisory doesn't come out for another 15-20 mins lol

[James]

Interesting to note that the last named system to make landfall in Georgia was Tropical Storm Chris in 1988. Obviously these days Georgia hits are quite rare, although I've heard that it was more common in the 1800's.

[cinlfla]

I remember Hurricane David I was 14 years old and had not been in Florida long I think that started my fascination with these storms.
Cindy

[DESTRUCTION5]

seen enought of these things on Satellite to know..

[mf_dolphin]

Unfortunately history does not influence a storm in progress. If the ridge builds and maintains as forecast it doesn't look good for the east coast right now.

[Josephine96]

ah ok

[James]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 11


Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 27, 2004


...Frances strengthens into a category two hurricane...

interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances over
the next several days.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 15.0 north...longitude 49.0 west or about 820 miles
...1320 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr.
A motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected to occur
for the next 24 hours or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Frances a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours...and Frances could become a
category three major hurricane later today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles...150 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...15.0 N... 49.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 970 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 PM AST.

Forecaster Stewart


$$