Frances Advisories

[vacanechaser]

Bastardi is saying this morning that he believes that the Carolinas is the target area for Frances... This could be likely due to the system off the east coast trying to crank up... This is a similar situation to last year with Isabel... Henri was in the same place.. Weakened the ridge and allowd Isabel to "short cut" to the coast.... The teleconnection he uses for Hatteras is Tokyo.. Chaba was expected to miss Japan and curve around the Island... Now the forecast calls for a hit on the southern coastline... Shifting further north the past few advisories... Frances is in the window of 6-10 days away for the pattern to be set up.... Just something o think about... Interesting few days ahead...

[alicia-w]

Give me a break, are you saying that hurricanes are a form of punishment?

[TLHR]

Yeah.
This looks like Floyd all over again.

Everyone thinks Florida, but the Carolinas have seen this all too often.

[boca]

Just a gut feeling, but I don't think Frances will be a Florida problem because of this new system off the SE coast, which would probably steer Frances into the North Carolina coast eventually.

[HurricaneGirl]

[Derek Ortt]

there should be some turn to the west


here are the forecast graphics http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

[cape_escape]

B-Bear, thanks for lifting my spirits...lol

[boca]

I'm in SE FL and I think Carolina too.

[boca]

thanks for reply.Do you think it will be a Carolina threat?

[RevDodd]

We'd appreciate it deeply if y'all would think someplace else...

[cape_escape]

I have my fingers crossed for everyone on the east coast! This is a very frightning situation for so many!

[Stormcenter]

I know many are already worried (with good reason)about
where Frances may make landfall, especially
those living along the US East coast. But
there is really no need to worry if you live along the
East coast just yet. Frances
is a long long way from the US East coast and
unlike Charley she is moving much slower. A lot
of things can happen and probably will before we
have a better idea where she is headed. I don't think that will be until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week unless
of course she picks up her forward speed.
In my opinion she is either going out to sea or
headed under the ridge into the GOM. I would put
my $ on the out sea scenario right now. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[TLHR]

We'd appreciate it deeply if y'all would think someplace else...

I know, Rev.
I rode out Floyd in Fayetteville. It wasn't fun.
But it's either going to be Florida (if the ridge of high pressure holds), or the Carolinas (if the ridge weakens).

It's like deja-vu all over again...

[Josephine96]

Good point SC.. but I know a lot of people on pins and needles right now watching her.. myself included

[Josephine96]

Isn't this the game we play every year lol.. Florida or the Carolina's..

[frankthetank]

stormcenter~

What are your reasons for her turning out to sea?

[Derek Ortt]

way way way too soon to tell


However, what may very well be a carolina threat is the thing that is forming there now

[rbaker]

amazing what 6 hrs discussions can do, or not predict from last night

[AussieMark]

North Carolina have seen so many hurricanes in recent years that they would be prepared if Frances came up there.

Bertha (July 12, 1996)
Fran (September 6, 1996)
Bonnie (August 27, 1998)
Floyd (September 16, 1999)
Isabel (September 18, 2003)

I doubt there would be any North Carolinans that would be complacent in reference to Frances.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Unfortunately practically all the models do not support the scenario that this system will be a fish storm as of yet...