Charley Advisories

[Air Force Met]

I don't see it going over Cuba either. Maybe the western tip. It will miss Jamaica. The TCHP over that area is high. The upper low to the west will vent it with a good outflow jet. The upper low to its east is also providing some good outflow. The southerly inflow is great...and the system will be recurving.

All of this leads to a very powerful storm at landfall.

[Stormchaser16]

OOOOO ok I got ya, yes you have it crossing Florida.... ok sorry

[Matthew5]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation

[Josephine96]

I don't know what you guys are like.. But here in Central Florida it appears that a Charlie Alert mode is underway.

I know a lot of people who actually are taking Charlie seriously. Mostly because it could strengthen to a hurricane.. {I actually think it could be a Cat 2 at landfall}.

I am going over to Mom's place today to see if the nursing home has a plan in the event Charlie strikes. Even though they're inland.. local mets say hurricane force winds are possible which basically means we're getting a DIRECT HIT even if it makes landfall in South Florida.

I myself am even more hyped up.. This is my 2nd hurricane {assuming it stays a hurricane and comes this way} My 1st was Erin in 1995.. but with the possibility of this being stronger is making me excited and nervous..

[HurricaneGirl]

Interesting and informative stuff!!

[Stormchaser16]

GFDL still has it as strong TS as it crosses into the NE

(Yes it is possible with the VERY fast acceleration)

Second landfall somewhere south of Myrtle Beach, SC as a pretty strong Cane

First landfall as a stronger cane in southern Florida Peninsula........

This is a QUITE SCARY forecast

[HurricaneGirl]

I know what you mean John!!!

[Josephine96]

Assuming Charley does make landfall here in Central or SouthWest Florida as forecast.. How strong do you think he'll be..?

I'm going strong Cat 1.. winds of 90-95 mph

[c5Camille]

to far in advance to say.... not even sure where
he's headed yet...

[jlauderdal]

I don't know what you guys are like.. But here in Central Florida it appears that a Charlie Alert mode is underway.

I know a lot of people who actually are taking Charlie seriously. Mostly because it could strengthen to a hurricane.. {I actually think it could be a Cat 2 at landfall}.

I am going over to Mom's place today to see if the nursing home has a plan in the event Charlie strikes. Even though they're inland.. local mets say hurricane force winds are possible which basically means we're getting a DIRECT HIT even if it makes landfall in South Florida.

I myself am even more hyped up.. This is my 2nd hurricane {assuming it stays a hurricane and comes this way} My 1st was Erin in 1995.. but with the possibility of this being stronger is making me excited and nervous..

South Florida direct hit highly unlikely especially with the system at 270 the last few hours. Direct hit Central to NW florida likely.

[CaptinCrunch]

New IR Loop of Charley


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

[Stormchaser16]

Wont throw my vote in yet...... WAY too early to be guessing.... focus on the immediate threats from the system right now

[chris_fit]

I dont't think so. That convection is growing and wrapping around that center VERY quickly. I expect a Hurricane within 24 hours.
Check out that outflow too. Something is going on down there!!!

LOL 24 hours is way too soon my friend....... it wont develop signifigantly until about 36 hours out, and/or until it slows down it will have a hard time keeping a good circulation fdrom being exposed...... sorry i just found the 24 hour comment on it being a hurricane quite amusing

[Josephine96]

Mary.. I'll be honest.. Yes I'm 45-50 miles inland.. and yes I am now in a lower area, not a 3rd floor apartment..

But I am with a group of people where out of 6.. only me and 1 other person are taking Charley seriously. Those are not good odds.

I'm even prepared to take a few goodies and go to an evac shelter if asked to go..

[Stormchaser16]

And how long has it been buddy since you made that comment yesterday?

[Stormchaser16]

OH DARN.... let me check my watch..... yup its been about ohhhhhhhhhh 24 hours

[CaptinCrunch]

New IR Loop of Bonnie

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[Josephine96]

True guys.. It does look like here in Central Florida we may see a direct hit or as close to it as they come..

I hope the 1's who voted major hurricane don't wish that upon us lol

[chris_fit]

If they upgrade him at 11am I'll be dead on... haha...

I'm no forecaster... gut feeling and luck. I'm usually ALWAYS wrong so I'm excited about this call

[CaptinCrunch]

SSD Tropical Satellite Imagery System Status


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml?text