Frances Advisories

[KWT]

I presume if(a big if as well!) it was already a cat-4 before it headed into the GOM then did,could this storm even match super typhoon Chuba in terms of power?????

I reckon it'll go into Florida and probably come out the other side.

[MWatkins]

The 06Z GFDL model is now starting to come to the left of previous runs and brings Frances into the southeast Bahamas by day 5:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGQLM.0408271129

The continued swing to the left by the UKMET is also disconcerting...all in all it looks like the forward speed may not ba as slow as was expected yesterday which should move time-tables up a day or so compared to this time yesterday.

MW

[Tip]

If you look at this loop, you see a clockwise flow around the periphery of Frances. Is this indictive of high pressure over the storm or just some light shear from the SW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

Mike in terms of the islands and Puerto Rico how this new run does in terms of distance that Frances will pass to our north?.

[jlauderdal]

yes tropicalweatherwatcher

another hurricane that didn't have a eye until it was a strong cat-2 was hurricane alex this year.

good example. bottom line..recon is the only way to really know when they are out in the sea.

[Matthew5]

Mw, the Globals are now catching up with the Hurricane models with a huge shift to the west. Cycloneye this might just do the unthinkable! In one last thing how strong do you think this is Mw?

[Derecho]

Per the 12Z NHC model init (note this may not be reflected in the 11AM advisory speed because NHC uses a long-term average for movement in advisories.

[Matthew5]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 271225
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040827 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040827 1200 040828 0000 040828 1200 040829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 48.6W 15.7N 50.5W 16.7N 52.2W 17.4N 53.7W
BAMM 14.7N 48.6W 15.7N 50.5W 16.7N 52.2W 17.4N 53.7W
A98E 14.7N 48.6W 15.4N 50.2W 16.4N 52.1W 17.6N 54.0W
LBAR 14.7N 48.6W 15.7N 50.3W 16.8N 51.8W 17.3N 53.3W
SHIP 90KTS 95KTS 96KTS 95KTS
DSHP 90KTS 95KTS 96KTS 95KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040829 1200 040830 1200 040831 1200 040901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 55.4W 17.3N 60.0W 17.8N 65.6W 19.2N 70.5W
BAMM 17.5N 55.3W 17.6N 59.8W 18.5N 65.5W 20.1N 70.8W
A98E 18.7N 56.2W 21.2N 61.2W 23.6N 66.3W 27.1N 71.0W
LBAR 17.3N 55.0W 17.1N 60.0W 17.1N 66.2W 18.7N 71.3W
SHIP 94KTS 88KTS 82KTS 73KTS
DSHP 94KTS 88KTS 82KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 48.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 46.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 44.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 65NM RD34SW = 65NM RD34NW = 80NM

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040827 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040827 1200 040828 0000 040828 1200 040829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 48.6W 15.7N 50.5W 16.7N 52.2W 17.4N 53.7W
BAMM 14.7N 48.6W 15.7N 50.5W 16.7N 52.2W 17.4N 53.7W
A98E 14.7N 48.6W 15.4N 50.2W 16.4N 52.1W 17.6N 54.0W
LBAR 14.7N 48.6W 15.7N 50.3W 16.8N 51.8W 17.3N 53.3W
SHIP 90KTS 95KTS 96KTS 95KTS
DSHP 90KTS 95KTS 96KTS 95KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040829 1200 040830 1200 040831 1200 040901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 55.4W 17.3N 60.0W 17.8N 65.6W 19.2N 70.5W
BAMM 17.5N 55.3W 17.6N 59.8W 18.5N 65.5W 20.1N 70.8W
A98E 18.7N 56.2W 21.2N 61.2W 23.6N 66.3W 27.1N 71.0W
LBAR 17.3N 55.0W 17.1N 60.0W 17.1N 66.2W 18.7N 71.3W
SHIP 94KTS 88KTS 82KTS 73KTS
DSHP 94KTS 88KTS 82KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 48.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 46.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 44.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 65NM RD34SW = 65NM RD34NW = 80NM


That slow speed now worries me in Puerto Rico because that may allow the ridge to get stronger and not allow to bend west more north than 18n.

[jlauderdal]

HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040827 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040827 1200 040828 0000 040828 1200 040829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 48.6W 15.7N 50.5W 16.7N 52.2W 17.4N 53.7W
BAMM 14.7N 48.6W 15.7N 50.5W 16.7N 52.2W 17.4N 53.7W
A98E 14.7N 48.6W 15.4N 50.2W 16.4N 52.1W 17.6N 54.0W
LBAR 14.7N 48.6W 15.7N 50.3W 16.8N 51.8W 17.3N 53.3W
SHIP 90KTS 95KTS 96KTS 95KTS
DSHP 90KTS 95KTS 96KTS 95KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040829 1200 040830 1200 040831 1200 040901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 55.4W 17.3N 60.0W 17.8N 65.6W 19.2N 70.5W
BAMM 17.5N 55.3W 17.6N 59.8W 18.5N 65.5W 20.1N 70.8W
A98E 18.7N 56.2W 21.2N 61.2W 23.6N 66.3W 27.1N 71.0W
LBAR 17.3N 55.0W 17.1N 60.0W 17.1N 66.2W 18.7N 71.3W
SHIP 94KTS 88KTS 82KTS 73KTS
DSHP 94KTS 88KTS 82KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 48.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 46.8W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 44.3W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 65NM RD34SW = 65NM RD34NW = 80NM


That slow speed now worries me in Puerto Rico because that may allow the ridge to get stronger and not allow to bend west more north than 18n.

anyone wanna bet that on the next run the A98 doesnt have that system at 27N

[Trader Ron]

JL,

You beat me too it. 27N..hmmmmmmm.

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 271215
A. HURRICANE FRANCIS (SIX)
B. 27/1131Z (65)
C. 14.6N/1
D. 48.4W/6
E. TWO/GOES-12
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS -27/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07A/PBO SMALL 10NM IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG BAND
YIELDS CF OF 4.5. NO EYE ADJ. ADDED 0.5 FOR BF. FINAL T BASED ON
PT, MET SUPPORTS. DT YIELDS 5.0.

AODT: T4.5 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

KAMINSKI

[Aquawind]

WOW..That seems soooo slow compared to many of these sytems the last couple years..Lotsa time for a fish dream to come true..

[jlauderdal]

JL,

You beat me too it. 27N..hmmmmmmm.

We can meet in the middle of the alley and have a drink to celebrate our great insight...LOL.

[Roxy]

I can't stop laughing because everytime you guys post this stuff, I think...where's the glossary!

Don't bother explaining it. I think I understand what I need to know.

[boca]

The cloud dip north of Puerto Rico connecting to the little low off the SE Coast,is that having an effect on slowing down or steering Frances in any way?

[Benlanka]

08-27-2004 1145z SAB T4.5/T4.5
08-27-2004 1145z TAFB T5.0/T5.0

[hurricanemike]

Where did u get the TAFB info from?

[Brent]

That's an anticyclone that has built over the system. It aids in the strengthening. It causes the system to vent and the convection to build.

[Benlanka]

From the NHC FTP server. Look in the ATCF folder, subfolder 'fix' and look for a file "fal062004.dat". However it is slightly coded, so for the convenience I have created a PHP script that decodes the file for Frances. It can be found here.

KGWC = AFWA btw.