Charley Advisories

[rtd2]

Jamaca to the South......this could help him develope quicker due to less interaction to land. looks like the slight west nudge will help jamaca AND cha rley


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[The Dark Knight]

Wow!!!.......

[Guest]

maybe even cuba as well, 4 new updated NHC models miss cuba also...

[HurricaneGirl]

Trrrrrrrropical!!!

[Matthew5]

This gives it a chance to slow down in stay over water! Can you say power house!

[Brent]

That will mean a landfall farther west in the Gulf(or north if it goes to the Peninsula), meaning LATER.

[Derecho]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_03.gif

BAMD even shows the system turning back to the NW into the central Gomex....although this is an outlier

That's the BAMM, not BAMD, and it's only valid for a weak, badly sheared storm.

[Derecho]

I don't think that the track will change any since the majority of the models have no change....

The "majority of the models" had started Charley in the wrong position. Slight changes in initial position can change the end position in a model by HUNDREDS of miles.

It's a HUGE deal that it's further S than earlier thought, and you WILL see the other models change.

The only model right now with a correct initialization that's also a remotely useful model is BAMD.

[rockyman]

thanks, derecho...I just read it wrong

I was concerned that BAMD was showing the central Gomex...since it's BAMM, not quite as concerned.

[Kennethb]

Gotta give those computers some time to decipher the latest info. They have to look at the calendar to remind them that it is August 11, Not September 11 or October 11.

[Dean4Storms]

Derecho is correct, you have to extrapolate the difference and it spreads as you go farther out in time like he said by hundreds of miles by the time you go this far out in time.

Everyone from Mobile, AL eastward to the Keys needs to stay abreast of Charley

[Stormchaser16]

Vortex shows 995MB and MX fl wind of 76 knots....

Also closed eyewall!

000
URNT12 KNHC 111223
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1223Z
B. 16 DEG 19 MIN N
75 DEG 24 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1368 M
D. 55 KT
E. 299 DEG 08 NM
F. 062 DEG 76 KT
G. 301 DEG 007 NM
H. 995 MB
I. 17 C/ 1521 M
J. 21 C/ 1525 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/3.0 NM
P. AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NW QUAD 1221Z.

[CaptinCrunch]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...CHARLEY APPROACHING JAMAICA...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SHOULD BE IN
THE CENTER SHORTLY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD
INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE.

TROPICAL STORM AND/OR HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF CUBA LATER TODAY.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES... 185 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH
...39 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...16.9 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

[rtd2]

true Brent but as we all know these tracks change each recon report some more than others I would expect charleys track to change several more times. I enjoy the forums though cause the landfall HYPE has already begun!

[CaptinCrunch]

[Derek Ortt]

However, the latest GFD mdoels as well as AVNI still go with recurvature into Florida. With the trough being there, those ar elikely the models to go, although there may be some chance that this misses the trough

[CaptinCrunch]

[Stormchaser16]

Unless Charley really slows down, then there is really no way that i can see it missing the trough

[CaptinCrunch]

Latest Radar Loop of both TS!!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[Guest]

FOLKS

some folks here have been pushign the idea that charley might turn sharper to the NW then N cut across cntral or eastern Cuba then Up the east FL coast ot JUST offshore then into the Carolinas and NJ CXape Cod etc...

This idea was pushed b/c oif the hurricane models fronm yesterday which DID show a sharper turn.

This is why wxrisk exists .... in the tropical model sense Hurricane models really have a BIG weakness -- when it comes to reading the synoptic pattern. You see once TC reach a certain latitude or a certaion opiint in the season the interaction with large scale synoptic featuers between the TC and Ridge / troughs is handle VERY badly by hurricane models -- especially past 48 hours.

This is one of the point I tried to make last night on the radio show and if I had the chance to talk with Dr landsea I would of brought it up.

Since 18z Tuesday GFS the GFS operational model -- which within 72 hrs has been VERY good over the last 3 years-- but past 72 hrs it is not -- began showing a WEST trend. This trend continued last night and this morning at 6z.

Here is why it makes sense..

FiRST THE SUPERTANKER effect.... Charley is still booking and it is fairly good size storm. Thus it will tajke a while to turn this system.... BONNIE yesterday was almost dead and of course has made a BIG comeback --- but yesterday she was NOT moving very fast in any direction. The Point is that Bonnie would be able to make a much sharper turn.

SECOND the Hurricane models are picking up on the massive HISTORIC trough coming into the Mississippi valley.... Deep south and East coast . BUT for every action there is a OPPOSITE and equal reaction -- the yin and the yang. In this case the development of this massive trough ALSO means a Massive RIDGE must develop. Not might ... but Has to. This ridge center over the Bahamas will force Charley to take the wider turn as the trough moves in and begins to pull him North on Friday.

A wider turn means More open water... less western Cuba... better chance to reach CAT 3-4 status and More of a threat to west central FL NW FL and possibly Mobile AL.

IMO the threat to S FL seeing a DIRECT hit -- key word here is DIRECT flks --- is reduced.

DT