Frances Advisories

[mobilebay]

Agreed. However I've heard it said by the NHC "The storm is pulling in dry air on the east side". Would this be dry air at different levels of the Atmosphere?This is a reply to Mathew5.

[Matthew5]

If it go's over Pr in Hati the east coast is going to be spared from something higher then a cat3!

[MWatkins]

Now I am starting to get worried! Mike, what do you think are the probabilities of Frances to miss us? I like to see hurricanes but from big distances away! That GFS make me think that we will have to start to think more seriously about Frances.

Cycloman

The GFS is on the south side of the guidance right now...so that's somewhat good. If the other models start trending to the west overnight...then that's bad.

If the threat continues to show up by...oh...Saturday night then I would be really concerned. So far...just something to watch more closely...

MW

[mobilebay]

Thanks Mwatkins. You explained what I needed to Know.

[Dmetal81]

You know, based on the rapid deepening of this evening, and the quick appearance of an eye... I wouldnt be surpised if it went all the way to 5 in the next 48 hours. Im not saying it will maintain that, but I think it might have a good shot.

[The_Cycloman_PR]

Thanks Mike! I will keep watching Frances very closely during the weekend.

[Air Force Met]

Yeah...that's a big shift west. I think it's a bit overdone...especially with the WSW movement after 72 hours. Doesn't look good for Florida.

[MWatkins]

Now that is something you don't see every day! How strong do you think it is Mw. I'm whiling to say with that eye that it is closing in at cat3!

I'm also going to say the next SSD is going to come in as 5.0/5.0 or maybe as high as 5.5/5.5!

Until the eye becomes more circular I'd give it a solid 4.5...but if we see a round eye pop then 5.0 is good based on the symetric position of the eye within the CDO.

MW

[PuertoRicoLibre]

The French request for the retirement of Frances as a name is understandable. "Frances" in French is the phonetic equivalent of the word "French" in French. Therefore I imagine weather forecasters in Haiti, Guadeloupe and Martinique must sound really strange when they say in their language the equivalent of "Hurricane French" is coming. Also, in Spanish the word "French" is written "Frances" so it would seem a weird name to the reader in Spanish unfamiliar with the way the word is used in English. Voilá!

NB The irony of it all may be that if this thing slams into any major metro area in the region, its name may not be forgotten for a long long time, even if retired.

[PurdueWx80]

Did anyone else notice that the GFS then takes Frances into the Gulf slowly and recurves it into FL, just north of Tampa Bay? It has to be hysterical to everyone watching how crazy the GFS is this far out. We have now basically had every major city on the coast hit from NC to TX. It is nearly impossible to predict weather at all near and after 14 days...plain and simple.

[MWatkins]

Did anyone else notice that the GFS then takes Frances into the Gulf slowly and recurves it into FL, just north of Tampa Bay? It has to be hysterical to everyone watching how crazy the GFS is this far out. We have now basically had every major city on the coast hit from NC to TX. It is nearly impossible to predict weather at all near and after 14 days...plain and simple.

Yep...however..my concern is how far to the south the GFS keeps Frances thought the more reliable 5 day forecast period...and what is done with the 500MB ridge during that time. I really think thi will be a close call for our friends in Puerto Rico.

MW

[PuertoRicoLibre]

Did that happen because I used the locally infamous G. word yesterday evening?

I'd better start saying trof, trof, trof then.

[TS Zack]

Looks like it moves somewhat inland around ft. myers... NOT GOOD

[ericinmia]

Here is a link to the 48 frame video of that run....

Still effects Fl... haha seems like its really gunning for it.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

-Eric

[PurdueWx80]

What really freaks me out is that now the 0Z GEM, which is notoriously quite good, even past 7 days, takes an eerily similar track to the GFS - over PR along the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba then curves it towards the Keys and into FL, out near Melbourne, then back into the coast near Wilmington. While the lowest pressure shown is only 983, this is incredible considering it is a global model with relatively high resolution. For instance, it now shows the storm at 1004 mb, when our best estimates show sub-980. If you scale the forecast 983 down - Bam, major hurricane. I wasn't taking the GFS too seriously until now. Still, it is well over a week away, and there will most certainly be significant changes to this. The ECMWF still takes it towards the mid-Atlantic coast. This is getting a little creepy now.

[Matthew5]

The CMC is just slightly north of the Gfs!
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

[Air Force Met]

Eye is really taking shape. -70C temps are pretty much totally encasing the eye...and the eywall is intact. So...it's probably approaching 5.0...which would be 90 kts.

[george_r_1961]

Well its 10 days from landfall in the US as of this writing; that leaves plenty of time to watch and track Frances in order to pinpoint the area most likely to take a hit. Remember errors can be VERY large in the long range models with the forecasts becoming more accurate up to 5 days out. So early next week we should have a better idea where the axe will fall.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Why do I get the feeling that Frances is going to be looking like Izzy (as in Isabel) very shortly??

Izzy got to 160 mph sustained last year with that big "fish-eye" look. Could very well see the same here. Only question is will Frances go further west and be a stronger storm at a potential US landfall?

[mobilebay]

from Meteo 7. thought this would help with our sattelite down.
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi