Ivan Advisories

[kevin]

Ivan IV.

[otowntiger]

It wouldn't mean that he would hit land at cat 5. As we've seen over the years, very, very few storms maintain that kind of strength for very long. Just look at Frances, she wore herself out before she hit Florida. Allen back in '80 was pretty strong for a long time, but even he weakened substantially before landfall. I believe even Gilbert weakened some before hitting the Yucatan. NOw of course there are the ones that rapidly intensify just as they make landfall (Hugo, Andrew, Charley, etc.) but more often it seems they weaken at least some before hitting land (Lily '02, Carmen '74, Isabel '03, Floyd '99, etc. The synoptics are always unique for each storm. Cat 5's are fun to watch as long as they don't hit land at that level.

[x-y-no]

No doubt from the IR image that this storm is intensifying right now.

[Guest]

Pressures have been falling in Bermuda..Also pressures are relatively low in the Bahamas,Cuba,Jamaica & South Fla.These are all indications that the high is not to strong & is even to expected to erode more.Ivan is already taking significant wobbles north through out the day & those jogs north will continue.

Current pressure readings from areas mentioned above;

Bermuda-30.06 (1017) & its been falling for the last 12 hours +

Nassau,Bahamas-29.91 in. (1013)

Guantanamo,Cuba-29.88 in. (1011)

Havana,Cuba-29.91 (1013)

Key West, Fla-29.92 in. (1013)

West Palm Beach,Fla-29.90 in. (1012)

Kingston,Jamaica-29.83 in. (1010)

High not strong enough to get a storm into the Central GOM or much into GOM at all as have mentioned here & with the high weakening even further & a low forecast to develop in the GOM I dont know what some of you are seeing.

NHC forecast shifts right/east @ 5 PM

[Josephine96]

I think the only reason Frances weakened was because of dry air and Nortern Bahamas.. Thank GOD she weakened though..

By the way.. does anyone have initial estimates on Frances damage yet? Some said it could be the costliest cane in history..

[cycloneye]

It will be very interesting to see the next message as the system looks much better now.

[wxwatcher2]

Me no likes FSU but me no likes miami more.
Noles by 7

[Terry]

I'll provide the name and address for several Abaco relief funds shortly. Sometimes it is something simple like sending books to schools which lost theirs. However, there may not be a school building left where Ivan is impacting and a financial contribution for basic food/water/shelter will be what is needed.

One problem with current Abaco situation --- although Frances was not as bad a the Floyd damage there, FL Power and Light sent workers in right away after Floyd. Not so with Frances since FPL is being kept too busy in FLA. Power is VERY slow to return to Abacos this time around.

[CFL]

I saw someone on MSNBC last hour from Accuweather (not J.B. - an older guy) who circled th northern Gulf Coast from eastern Louisiana to Panama City, Florida and said this is the area with the biggest threat.

[andrew_the_beast]

Im still sticking with my prediction and saying that it will be a CAT 5 be this evening. Notice where the clouds ahead of Ivan are heading? Looks to me like FLORIDA is the bullseye.

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNational ... e&pid=none

[drezee]

NE has been consistently 15 to 20 kts higher than NW quad during recons

[Josephine96]

All I can say is Accu Weather is interesting lol

[NorthGaWeather]

I quess we will see.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  HURRICANE IVAN       (AL092004) ON 20040908  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040908  1800   040909  0600   040909  1800   040910  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.1N  67.0W   14.3N  69.7W   15.7N  72.2W   16.8N  74.3W
  BAMM    13.1N  67.0W   13.9N  69.8W   15.0N  72.3W   15.8N  74.3W
  A98E    13.1N  67.0W   13.9N  69.9W   14.7N  72.6W   15.2N  75.2W
  LBAR    13.1N  67.0W   14.3N  69.8W   15.9N  72.7W   17.3N  75.5W
  SHIP       120KTS         120KTS         122KTS         124KTS
  DSHP       120KTS         120KTS         122KTS         124KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040910  1800   040911  1800   040912  1800   040913  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.6N  75.9W   18.0N  77.8W   19.3N  78.4W   22.3N  78.2W
  BAMM    16.7N  75.9W   17.7N  77.4W   19.7N  78.2W   23.1N  78.7W
  A98E    15.4N  77.6W   14.9N  80.7W   12.7N  82.2W   10.0N  83.3W
  LBAR    18.3N  77.8W   19.8N  80.6W   21.0N  81.7W   23.7N  81.3W
  SHIP       130KTS         133KTS         131KTS         117KTS
  DSHP        81KTS          88KTS          62KTS          48KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.1N LONCUR =  67.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
  LATM12 =  12.3N LONM12 =  64.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
  LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  61.1W
  WNDCUR =  120KT RMAXWD =   10NM WNDM12 =  120KT
  CENPRS =  950MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =  140NM RD34SE =  125NM RD34SW =   50NM RD34NW = 140NM

Oh boy look at 98 what it does.LBAR goes more west into Naples.

[dhweather]

Carolinas!!

[Lowpressure]

Man, that is starting to really look nasty.

[tallbunch]

where would it go then? East coast of FL?

[Fego]

ST. GEORGE'S, Grenada (AP) - The leader of the Caribbean island
of Grenada (greh-NAY'-duh) confirms that at least nine people have
been killed by Hurricane Ivan.

Oh my... I'm so sorry...

[Brent]

Uh oh...

Winds haven't come down any.

[Hurricane Cheese]

When will we see the next vortex message???