Ivan Advisories

[TazzyD]

Thanks B-Bear. I'm one of those who find a visual very helpful. With that forecast I'm now starting to get worried for those I actually know, not just those I worry about and don't know. I have a step brother who lives in the Panhandle and friends who have 2 houses at the Gulf Shores (one oceanfront and one lagoon front).

[TexasStooge]

I have a feeling it'll turn to the North-west.

[Rainband]

I voted the last option for obvious reasons

[clueless newbie]

Not today. Possible after Jamaica or in GOM. Btw eye replacement seems to be complete, with bigger eye cleaning up. Not really a huge eye, but certainly much bigger then the miniscule one before.

[Innotech]

Louisiana hasnt had one in a while. perhaps its time.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Where's the WNW option??

[Hurricane Cheese]

Eye is getting better defined with each new Satellite pic....he could/should get to Cat 5 sometime before the weekend...

[Innotech]

now once it enters the gulf, Pensacola MIGHT see a cat 5 depending on conditions.

[canegrl04]

I vote WNW

[Brent]

Not today, but it's likely sometime, especially in the Western Caribbean or SE GOM.

[Innotech]

towards Pensacola as per NHC tracking. Of course, if it hits NO, there ay be a problem.

[CaptinCrunch]

Not right now "slightly cooler waters and some shear" will keep Ivan at Cat 4 maybe even fall to a Cat 3, but once it gets into the very warm waters off of Cuba Ivan will have a good chance of reaching Cat 5.

[TexasStooge]

It'll more than likely hit areas west of Florida.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Could happen....Avila has mentioned the possiblity in his NHC discussions...

[Anonymous]

And I remember so many in late July calling for a "bust hurricane season" because of a very quiet start. So many were wondering what the hype was all about just before Alex formed.

In August, the massive fury of this season was released. In less than a month, 2 strong hurricanes would hit the Florida Peninsula, and powerful hurricane Ivan is moving through the Caribbean.

Just as I feared, the season would balance out later during the main season in August/September. JB was correct about a very active landfalling hurricane season. Perhaps many hurricane enthusiasts will have learned that June and July means NOTHING. It all balances out, and this year was no exception.

Good Luck to Florida in their recovery efforts. Hopefully Hurricane Ivan will spare them.

[Innotech]

doubtful, but should it happen it will look amazing on radar.

[Vortex]

Looking at the 12z data coming in and analyzing 00z runs it's becoming more and more apparent that the trough over the eastern gulf will be sufficient enough to induce a northern component. At this time the main question is will Ivan move north across Cuba then S. Fl or will in bend nw then n across the west coast of Fl or Panhandale. Either way it's very likely that Florida will be dealing with a severe Hurricane late in the weekend/next week.

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

[chris_fit]

no.

I'm gonna assume that its way to early to say cause i dont need another one

[LaBreeze]

Why is he not showing the expected "right turn?"