Ivan Advisories

[Stormcenter]

Something tells me this is the beginning of a left trend
in the forecast track? It looks like they keep Ivan on a NNW track toward the Florida (yes again Florida!) panhandle or AL. coastline. I think the area of concern MAY be shifting somewhat to the NE and N.Central GOM away for S.Florida. IMO

read the disco...all he did was go down the middle of the models. dont beleive for a sexond that this track will ever hold up as more data comes in. furthermore he is following the ever reliable gfdl that we know is lousy that far out.

What's your early call jlauderdal?

[Jevo]

Get him outtttta here..... This is the best news Ive heard allll day. Being a small business owner in South Florida I am fascinated with Tropical Cyclones, but my wallet really enjoys it when they stay the heck away

[APRS-CW0262]

Port Saint Lucie is so beat up I don't think we would be able to sustain even a tropical storm at this time. Yes very scary,roofs leak,running on generator,20$ a day rashing of gas,.
Not easy seeing your children suffer,but there taking it very well.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!!

[andrew_the_beast]

and ends up strikes somewhere around Tampa Bay. that would be DEVASTATING! Last few images show ivan more WNW and even a bigger jog to the N. So all you floridians keep a close eye on this. gaining strength too and imo look for CAT 5 later today.

[Ixolib]

[quote="B-Bear"]For those that need a visual.

Thank You!!

[Rainband]

all depends on the trof.

[Stormcenter]

Beyond 72 hours the models are going to vary quite a bit, then they'll start to hone in. Have a feeling this is a central Gulf Coast storm, but I'm being cautiously optimistic since lots can change, particularly with a powerful storm that wants to go poleward, looking for a weakness in the ridge. Still too early!

Unfortunately I think you may be right about the central
GOM but I'm think as far east as the Florida (sorry) panhandle.

[Rainband]

and ends up strikes somewhere around Tampa Bay. that would be DEVASTATING! Last few images show ivan more WNW and even a bigger jog to the N. So all you floridians keep a close eye on this. gaining strength too and imo look for CAT 5 later today.

what scientific data do you have to back that up?? I see no proof of that in the official forecast.

[Stormsfury]

There are SEVERAL well-versed 18 and under crowd that posts on this board, and I, for one, am ecstatic that their passions like in something like weather, and NOT something like drugs ...

Some of the ones that come to mind immediately are, of course, NCWW, TropicalWxWatcher (Jason), and Stormchaser16 ... this group spends a LOT of time analyzing and putting together a prognostication to the best of their abilities ... and for that, I applaud ...

I saw in the stats forum NCWW is only 16yrs old.

So he's got to Know more than the rest of us. LOL

No offense, but for a sixteen year old, his grammer and manner of presenting himself online is much more advanced than that of yourself.

I am suprised to see such judgements over his age. So what, he is sixteen. If he had not posted his birthday in his user profile, I doubt you would have guessed.

Don't write him off just because you disagree with his forecast.

From this post, would you have guessed I am 'just another teenager'? I'm 18, and I like to think I present myself online more respectably than many adults.

[wx247]

What remarkable pictures!!!

And thank you Brent for changing the subject. That was very responsible of you. Those of us that know you know that you wouldn't ever wish destruction to come.

[BlizzardNole]

Every city has its "Worst Case Scenario", such as a Cat-4 or worse hitting New Orleans from the SE, or Tampa Bay getting hit from the SW.

What about Tallahassee? I read about this once -- the worse thing that could happen to that area is a powerful storm like this making landfall from the Appalachee Bay moving NNW. It's the thinnest strip of land between the Gulf and Tallahassee from that direction.

[Brent]

If Charley hadn't made that last-minute right turn, he would have done that.

[Brent]

WOW! Does the US usually assist in such circumstances? I hope so.

I'm sure they will. They sent aid to Iran after that massive earthquake around Christmas last year and offered help to North Korea after that train collision a few months ago. Those are 2 of the most hostile countries to us in the world. We'll certainly help Grenada if they ask for it.

[Bane]

I saw in the stats forum NCWW is only 16yrs old.

So he's got to Know more than the rest of us. LOL

He's shown a helluva lot more knowledge in his posts than you've contributed in your one week on the boards.

[Stormsfury]

Unfortunately, there is this possibility ... right now, Ivan still consistently is running SOUTH and LEFT of the model guidance runs ... however, in the next 3-4 days, lies within the possibility of a mid-level low developing in the WEST GOM ... and another trough progged to possibly dig into the Central US ... the trough in the C US is transient and would move quite rapidly in response to a developing W US trough, which afterwards would pump up an Eastern Ridge (MR) ...

Avila's NHC discussion outlines the two scenarios very well and basically speaking, any forecast past 4-5 days regarding Ivan will have a low confidence factor ...

EVERYONE along the GOM must from time to time keep track of Ivan's goings on ...

[arlwx]

Flood warnings are now out for the area of SW VA just south of southern WV. Watch out WV!

[MWatkins]

Please...back off. If you disagree with an idea that's one thing. If you have a personal beef that's another...and personal beefs have no place here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=42612

MW

[CFLCaneWatcher]

I really believe that this is our BIG Tampa Bay Huricane, unfortunately. I have already been through two hurricanes in the past 3 weeks and am not looking forward to a third. Any chance this will be picked up and thrown out into the ocean as a fish?

[WeatherNLU]

There they go with the WNW again. Last 12 hours .6N/2.9W. I'm still missing it.