Charley Advisories

[Rainband]

Not so good.. I want Charley to stay a storm and maybe even grow. I knew it had to slow down..

stupid storm! lol.. Forgive me if I sound nuts

You said it not me

[southerngale]

Not so good.. I want Charley to stay a storm and maybe even grow. I knew it had to slow down..

stupid storm! lol.. Forgive me if I sound nuts

Actually, your post likely reflects the sentiments of a lot of posters but good luck getting many to admit it.

[c5Camille]

i predict that Charlie will make a direct hit
on whomever is reading this post at this moment...

[MWatkins]

Charley looks to have kicked out an outflow boundary to the west of the circulation center. Convection near the center has decreased but banding still looks impressive. Also...it looks like the center may have jogged to the N just a little...or maybe more than just a little over the last few hours.

Recon will be in around 4PM to check...my estimate right now is somewhere around 14.5N 70W. I wouldn't write it off just yet.

MW

[Guest]

I STRONGLY Disagree with this...

are you seriously arguing that betwen the 2 Bonnie looks better than Charlely?

well,

what a difference 24 hours makes. Congrats to the global models for screwing up yet another shear forecast.

I would now not be surprised if recon finds that Charley is no longer a tropical cyclone. The circulation is not as evident as it was yesterday. The rapid movement, along with the unexpected westerly shear is preventing this from organizing

[Matthew5]

I can see the center as clear as day around 14.8 north/69.5 west moving west-northwest. It appears to be wraping tighter every hours while on the northwestern side of a well developed cdo future. Nice banding! I would say that this is looking good. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Agua]

LMAO. I just posted in the DT thread that I've never seen so many people conjuring Charley to their area. I'm not calling anyone a wave monger, wishcaster or anything of the sort. All major fan sites are affected by Charley Fever. But take my word for it - whether you're at TWC, CFHC or S2K, check out the locale of a specific poster in releation to their argument about where Charley is headed. It's a trip.

Steve

LOL!! That's always been the case though, with the exception of the professional mets and a few very well-informed amatuers. It is funny though to watch the analytical gyrations folks will go through to arrive at the conclusion that [fill in where poster is at] is going to get hit.

[Edited to include the following:] And that's okay; apparently a lot of folks get a bit of a thrill imagining themselves in harm's way. Anyone who has been through a 2 or above though REALLY doesn't want to see something like that come their way.

[lilbump3000]

I see it as well.

[Josephine96]

Well OK.. so maybe it's not dead yet.. lol

{starts singing Joy to the World} lol

[Rainband]

Not so good.. I want Charley to stay a storm and maybe even grow. I knew it had to slow down..

stupid storm! lol.. Forgive me if I sound nuts

Actually, your post likely reflects the sentiments of a lot of posters but good luck getting many to admit it.

Unfortunately, I am a weather enthusiast and would love to see a storm. But as I posted yesterday ..not now the timing is too bad for our area. We have had too much rain and if we did get a storm it would be really bad for our area. If we were in need of rain I would be more excited about the prospect of a storm. Sorry just being honest!!

[MWatkins]

Uh..sorry about that...closer to 14.5 69.5...

MW

[cycloneye]

...Charley continues moving rapidly west-northwestward over the
Caribbean...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica. This watch will
probably be changed to a warning later today. A tropical storm
watch will likely be issued for the Cayman Islands later today.

Interests in and around the central and northwest Caribbean Sea
should closely monitor the progress of this system.

At 2 PM AST...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Charley was
located near latitude 14.5 north...longitude 69.7 west or about
275 miles... 440 km...south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican
Republic.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 24 mph
...39 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track the center will be approaching
Jamaica Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

An Air Force reserve unit hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to
investigate Charley later this afternoon.

Repeating the 2 PM AST position...14.5 N... 69.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 24 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.

Forecaster Pasch

[Baytown Bug]

I'm not writing this one off at all. The visable satellite still shows a distinct LLC. It might not be quite as impressive as yesterday, but there's plenty of open sea ahead of Charley and this thing will slow down in a day or two.

[Derek Ortt]

No no,

Bonnie looks like whale dung. The fast movement of Charlie may have enabled the center to open into a wave at the surface with a vigorous MLC. This nearly happened with Claudette last year as well when it was expected to be a cat 2 at the Yucatan

[Derek Ortt]

If Charlie slows down, the relative shear will decrease significant and the storm will intensify steadily. But it needs to slow down or it will outrun its upper high

[TheWeatherZone]

Cape May, NJ

(Ok not really)

I say somewhere along the panhandle of FL, as a strong CAT 1.

Mike~

[Weatherboy1]

The latest GFDL run is just out and it shows a SW FL landfall. This is a big change from before. I'm not sure if I read the 12Z GFS runs right or not, but it also looked like they tracked a vorticity center over the W tip of Cuba and N over FL. Thoughts?

TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY 03L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.4 67.6 285./21.0
6 14.4 69.1 302./17.9
12 15.2 71.1 294./20.9
18 16.2 73.1 296./21.4
24 17.1 74.9 296./19.2
30 18.1 75.9 316./13.8
36 19.0 77.0 311./14.2
42 19.7 78.0 303./11.9
48 20.7 79.0 314./13.9
54 21.6 80.2 307./13.4
60 22.5 80.7 327./10.4
66 23.3 81.2 328./ 9.7
72 24.4 81.5 346./11.0
78 25.7 81.3 7./13.2
84 27.3 81.0 12./16.4
90 29.2 80.6 12./19.0
96 31.4 79.9 16./22.7
102 33.9 78.9 22./27.3
108 36.5 77.6 26./27.9
114 39.2 76.4 23./28.3
120 42.0 75.0 27./29.5
126 45.1 73.1 32./34.0

[Josephine96]

I will agree that Charley does need to slow down a bit..

[Steve]

That was awesome Mike, laugh of the day. You might be surprised, but check out the GFDL solution for down the road on Bonnie. If Bonnie stays inland and runs up the coast ahead of the front, there's a shot for some 30-40k winds blowing onshore in coastal NJ and NY. It's a potential early season appetizer for you.

Steve

[MWatkins]

No no,

Bonnie looks like whale dung. The fast movement of Charlie may have enabled the center to open into a wave at the surface with a vigorous MLC. This nearly happened with Claudette last year as well when it was expected to be a cat 2 at the Yucatan

So you're saying recon will find an open wave? How much do you want to bet? I'll even give you 2 to 1 odds.

MW