Charley Advisories

[Pebbles]

Practically in tears and quezy in the stomach. This is HORRID

[Hyperstorm]

NOT at SARASOTA, NOT at TAMPA, BUT at FT. MYERS! SEEK HIGHER GROUND, IMMEDIATELY!

[ColdWaterConch]

....is toast. They are concerned that the causeways are going to be lost. Landfall predicted at Blind Pass (between Sanibel and Captiva). Many multi-million dollar houses on Captiva that are just WALLS of glass. No way they survive this.

[OtherHD]

It's reported that a couple hundred people are riding the storm out on Sanibel Island.........

[ColdWaterConch]

They are dead. The highest point on Sanibel is about 12 feet.

[KBBOCA]

All, I am part of an online prayer group. Here is a Lutheran prayer liturgy I found for those facing a hurricane. Perhaps some of you can gather with family & friends and pray for those in Charley's path. L stands for "leader" C for "congregation"

----------
L: Lord, have mercy.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: Christ, have mercy.
C: Christ, have mercy.

L: Lord, have mercy.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: In the face of peril and apprehension, let us pray to the Lord.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: In the face of mighty winds, thunderous sounds, strong rains, and surging waves, let us pray to the Lord.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: In the face of complete uncertainty, as well as concern for our loved ones, here or elsewhere, let us pray to the Lord.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: In the face of our own vulnerable mortality, let us pray to the Lord.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: For the strength that God alone can give us, let us pray to the Lord.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: For all that it takes to keep our children calm and safe, let us pray to the Lord.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: For faith that can move mountains and remove all fear, let us pray to the Lord.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: For trust in God's loving presence in our midst, even at this very hour, let us pray to the Lord.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: For trust that in life and in death, God will not abandon us, let us pray to the Lord.
C: Lord, have mercy.

L: Almighty God, we poor creatures place our lives into your hands that you might protect and guide us according to your will; Lord, in your mercy,

C: Hear, our prayer.

L: Do not hold our sins against us, but remember us in our faith and love for you; Lord, in your mercy,
C: Hear, our prayer.

L: Be our light in the darkness, our hope in the storm, our peace in the chaos, our trust in the unknown; Lord, in your mercy,
C: Hear, our prayer.

L: Mighty are your works, O Lord, and mighty is your saving hand. Turn your ear to our petitions and supplications; Lord, in your mercy,

C: Hear, our prayer.

L: God of heaven and earth, God who carries our lives and the lives of our whole community in your hands, be with is in the peril of this day/night. Help us to release our anxieties and fears into those same caring hands, knowing in faith that your will for us is life and everlasting good. Send your holy angels to watch over us and guard us. May they spread their holy wings to give us shelter against the storm. For you alone, O God, are all good, all life, all love, and that love is for us; through Jesus Christ our Lord.

C: Amen

[donsutherland1]

Hurricane Charley has taken somewhat of a more easterly track and should make landfall south of Tampa probably in the vicinity of Fort Myers or somewhat north of there.

At present, it has undergone explosive intensification (pressure down to 954 mb) and winds up to 145 mph.

Since 1900, the U.S. has seen 14 category 4 and 3 category 5 storms make landfall. At this time, Charley is a strong category 4 storm and should be the first major hurricane (category 3 or above) to make landfall since Bret in 1999.

Given property values in the Fort Myers area, it appears likely that Charley could become among the 10 costliest U.S. hurricanes on record. It could even come out in the top 5.

Current figures are below:

1. Andrew $26.5 billion
2. Hugo $7.0 billion
3. Floyd $4.5 billion
4. Fran $3.2 billion
5. Opal $3.0 billion
6. Georges $2.31 billion
7. Frederic $2.3 billion
8. Agnes $2.1 billion
9. Alicia $2.0 billion
10. Bob and Juan $1.5 billion

In addition, if it maintains its current strength, it could become among the top 50 most intense hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S.

Rank Hurricane Year Category
(at landfall) Minimum
Pressure (mb) Minimum
Pressure (in)
1 Unnamed (FL Keys) 1935 5 892 26.35
2 Camille (MS, SE LA, VA) 1969 5 909 26.84
3 Andrew (SE FL, SE LA) 1992 5a 922 27.23
4 Unnamed (FL Keys, S TX) 1919 4 927 27.37
5 Unnamed (Lake Okeechobee FL) 1928 4 929 27.43
6 Donna (FL, Eastern U.S.) 1960 4 930 27.46
7 Unnamed (Galveston TX) 1900 4 931 27.49
7 Unnamed (Grand Isle LA) 1909 4 931 27.49
7 Unnamed (New Orleans LA) 1915 4 931 27.49
7 Carla (N & Cent. TX) 1961 4 931 27.49
11 Hugo (SC) 1989 4 934 27.58
12 Unnamed (Miami FL, MS, AL, Pensacola FL) 1926 4 935 27.61
13 Hazel (SC, NC) 1954 4b 938 27.70
14 Unnamed (SE FL, SE LA, MS) 1947 4 940 27.76
15 Unnamed (N TX) 1932 4 941 27.79
16 Gloria (Eastern U.S.) 1985 3bc 942 27.82
16 Opal (NW FL, AL) 1995 3c 942 27.82
18 Audrey (SW LA, N TX) 1957 4d 945 27.91
18 Unnamed (Galveston TX) 1915 4d 945 27.91
18 Celia (S TX) 1970 3 945 27.91
18 Allen (S TX) 1980 3 945 27.91
22 Unnamed (New England) 1938 3b 946 27.94
22 Frederic (AL, MS) 1979 3 946 27.94
24 Unnamed (NE U.S.) 1944 3b 947 27.97
24 Unnamed (SC, NC) 1906 3 947 27.97
26 Betsy (SE FL, SE LA) 1965 3 948 27.99
26 Unnamed (SE FL, NW FL) 1929 3 948 27.99
26 Unnamed (SE FL) 1933 3 948 27.99
26 Unnamed (S TX) 1916 3 948 27.99
26 Unnamed (MS, AL) 1916 3 948 27.99
31 Diane (NC) 1955 3 e 949 28.02
31 Unnamed (S TX) 1933 3 949 28.02
33 Beulah (S TX) 1967 3 950 28.05
33 Hilda (Central LA) 1964 3 950 28.05
33 Gracie (SC) 1959 3 950 28.05
33 Unnamed (Central TX) 1942 3 950 28.05
37 Unnamed (SE FL) 1945 3 951 28.08
37 Bret (S TX) 1999 3 951 28.08
39 Unnamed (Tampa Bay FL) 1921 3 952 28.11
39 Carmen (Central LA) 1974 3 952 28.11
41 Edna (New England) 1954 3 b 954 28.17
41 Unnamed (SE FL) 1949 3 954 28.17
41 Fran (NC) 1996 3 954 28.17
44 Eloise (NW FL) 1975 3 955 28.20
44 King (SE FL) 1950 3 955 28.20
44 Unnamed (Central LA) 1926 3 955 28.20
44 Unnamed (SW LA) 1918 3 955 28.20
44 Unnamed (SW FL) 1910 3 955 28.20

Source: NWS Tropical Prediction Center

[ColdWaterConch]

Is Charley going to ride the coast?

[Hyperstorm]

It looks like the system doesn't want to come in to land yet! The system is making Northern wobble now, which will bring the eastern eyewall, all across Sanibel Island until it makes landfall further north.

It might be a little early, but it looks like the hurricane's eye will miss the downtown Ft. Myers area...

Tampa is NOT out of the woods YET........

[Aquawind]

Getting Blasted at the moment!!!

[Anonymous]

Man check this out.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/radar/index.html

The eastern eyewall is literally riding the barrier islands. If anyone is down there they will probably drown.

[donsutherland1]

Charley should come ashore somewhat to the north of Fort Myers.

Latest pressure: 946 mb.

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT12 KNHC 131833
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1833Z
B. 26 DEG 18 MIN N
82 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2669 M
D. 110 KT
E. 192 DEG 006 NM
F. 156 DEG 102 KT
G. 192 DEG 006 NM
H. 946 MB
I. 9 C/ 3044 M
J. 20 C/ 2888 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 19
MAX FL WIND 141 KT SE QUAD 1658Z.

[Wnghs2007]

URNT12 KNHC 131904
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1904Z
B. 26 DEG 29 MIN N
82 DEG 21 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2623 M
D. 100 KT
E. 310 DEG 002 NM
F. 227 DEG 123 KT
G. 134 DEG 007 M
H. 943 MB
I. 13 C/ 3032 M
J. 19 C/ 3003 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C6
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 24
MAX FL WIND 141 KT SE QUAD 1658Z.



OMG!!!!!!!!!! BOMBING. Check my other thread.

[Hyperstorm]

The eye is remaining MORE time over water with this jog northward. Thus, further deepening until about 1 hour...Pressure could drop to the 930's...

[wolffeeder]

They are dead. The highest point on Sanibel is about 12 feet.

Not actually all dead, not yet anyway. They were just talking with some guy on Sanibel just a few minutes ago on channel 4 Miami. He had several families in his house about a mile from the beach - on high ground - a new house built to the new codes. So far they were OK, no water in the yard even. Sounded pretty calm, but said the winds had really been picking up, wondering how much longer it would last, where the eye was and all. Had an ER doctor at the house too, that might be good. The eye was about 10 miles west of the west end of the island at the time. I think the guy was proud of his new home, he hung up when the weather guy got on him about how lucky he was.

[Wnghs2007]

At 2 pm winds were 145 mph and pressure was 956 mb. Now look at it.

H. 943 MB


I would not be suprised if this attains it within the next 30 minutes when it makes landfall. God, be with all the people in this Major Hurricanes Path.

[rtd2]

just slight burp! interaction with land....to be expected

[rtd2]

just slight burp! interaction with land....to be expected

[KBBOCA]

3 fatalities reported in Cuba so far...
1 reported death in Jamaica

---------
Hurricane Charley kills 3 and cause widespraed property damage in Cuba

ANITA SNOW
Canadian Press

Friday, August 13, 2004

HAVANA (AP) - Hurricane Charley claimed at least three lives and injured four other people as it roared across Cuba early Friday, battering the capital with heavy rains, ripping apart roofs, downing power lines and yanking up huge palm trees before taking aim at Florida.

The storm crossed the Caribbean's largest island shortly after midnight, with gusts of up to 200 kilometres per hour reported in some areas. Before reaching Cuba, Charley drenched Jamaica, where one man died.

Lt.-Col. Domingo Carretero reported the Cuban casualties in a live early afternoon report on state-run television, but offered no specifics except to say the three deaths occurred in Havana province, which rings the capital.

At least 41 buildings in Old Havana's dilapidated neighbourhoods collapsed overnight, civil defence authorities said.

Cuba appeared to suffer minor, but widespread, property damage from Charley, which was a Category 2 storm with winds of up to 177 km/h when it swept through here in less than two hours shortly after midnight.

An early tour of Havana found downed power lines and huge royal palms and other trees blocking major thoroughfares. Electricity was shut down for safety reasons as the storm neared and had not been restored in some areas more than eight hours later.

"We had to crawl under the bed," 39-year-old Marlen Perez said of the storm, which ripped chunks of corrugated roof off her modest home. "The wind was howling and I was screaming, 'Oh, my God! Oh, my God!' Pieces of the roof were falling everywhere. . . . I thought the walls were falling down."

Nearby, a woman in her 50s sat atop her own home, using a machete to hack at a tree that fell on her roof.

Sleepy residents dressed in shorts, T-shirts and sandals started emerging from their homes at dawn Friday to survey the damage.

"I spent the morning hours watching the trees swaying," hair stylist Grisel Delis, 41, said outside the older, two-storey stucco house she shares with several families.

Nearby, a three-metre-tall palm tree had been ripped out of the ground.

"It was incredible watching this tree go down," Delis said. "If it had fallen the other way, this building would have been gone."

Flanked by President Fidel Castro, a Cuban meteorologist said on live television that Charley made landfall shortly after midnight on Cuba's main island on the southern coast near Batabano.

The storm passed just west of downtown Havana, population 2.2 million, about two hours later.

Charley began pummelling Cuba's Isle of Youth off the main island's southwestern coast with heavy rains and high winds Thursday afternoon.

More than 149,000 people were evacuated in western and central Cuba as the storm approached, and Havana's international airport and major seaports were closed, Cuba's official National Information Agency reported.

Only minimal damage was reported in the Cayman Islands, where Charley hit earlier Thursday when it was a much weaker Category 1 storm, with winds at 145 km/h.

In Jamaica, 32-year-old farmer Byron Barret died Wednesday night trying to rescue six other people from rising flood waters in St. Elizabeth parish on the south coast, officials said.

Flooding in Jamaica left some roads impassable and submerged crops in the southern agricultural region.