Charley Advisories

[Guest]

I don't know where to find these things, but they are supposed to have a 7am intermediate advisory. Anyone seen it?
...Jennifer...

[southerngale]

Here it is Jenn...

Hurricane Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 16a


Statement as of 7:00 am EDT on August 13, 2004



...Hurricane Charley on track...wind gusts to 124 mph in Cuba...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for the Florida West
Coast from East Cape Sable northward to the Steinhatchee river. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is issued for the Florida and Georgia
coasts from Cocoa Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia. A
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South Florida
Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including Florida Bay
and Lake Okeechobee.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southeastern U. S.
Coast from Ocean Reef northward to south of Cocoa Beach and from
north of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Cape Fear North Carolina.
At 7 am EDT...1100z...the Hurricane Warning for Cuba has been
discontinued.
At 7 am EDT...1100z...the eye of Hurricane Charley was located near
latitude 24.3 north...longitude 82.9 west or about 75 miles...120
km...west-southwest of Key West Florida.

Charley is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr.
A gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible and Charley is forecast to
be a major hurricane as it approaches the Florida West Coast.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...205 km. Preliminary reports from Cuba indicate that
peak winds of near 124 mph...200 km/hr were measured just west of
Havana near the eye of the hurricane.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane
reconnaissance plane was 969 mb...28.61 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet...along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected in the Florida Keys. Storm surge
flooding of 10 to 13 feet is also possible near and south of the
where the center crosses the Florida West Coast.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods.

Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys today.

Repeating the 7 am EDT position...24.3 N... 82.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 969 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 9 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
EDT.

Forecaster Avila


http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ublic.html

[Thunder44]

Not suprising.

[Brent]

124 mph wind gust in Cuba?

Yep, just west of Havana. Watch out Florida!!!

[dougjp]

Along with posters who have mentioned this in other threads, I'm anxious to know anything about the effects on Cuba.

Would appreciate any information.

[wx247]

Doug... I have only passed along what is coming across the wires.

Mudslides have been prevalent and I believe that 1 fatality was reported in Jamaica. I will have to go back and check on that later.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 131124
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1124Z
B. 24 DEG 19 MIN N
82 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2822 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 132 DEG 91 KT
G. 029 DEG 8 NM
H. 970 MB
I. 6 C/ 3104 M
J. 12 C/ 3091 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 1 /1 NM
P. AF980 0803A CHARLEY OB 29
MAX FL WIND 99 KT E QUAD 1006Z.

Apparently not getting stronger YET.

[Derek Ortt]

URNT12 KNHC 131124
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1124Z
B. 24 DEG 19 MIN N
82 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2822 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 132 DEG 91 KT
G. 029 DEG 8 NM
H. 970 MB
I. 6 C/ 3104 M
J. 12 C/ 3091 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 1 /1 NM
P. AF980 0803A CHARLEY OB 29
MAX FL WIND 99 KT E QUAD 1006Z

[Jevo]

This is just the normal fluctuation of a storm this size... The only difference we have here is that we are getting hourly fixes now..

[Stormsfury]

I saw that Cuba has had a wind gust as high as 124 MPH last night ...

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, Hurricane Charley maintained a general north-northwest track:

August 12 11 pm: 22.2 N 82.4W
August 13 7 am: 24.3N 82.9W

Consequently, the idea that the greatest prospect of landfall lies just to the north of Tampa still looks reasonable at this time. If anything, perhaps it might make landfall somewhat farther to the north than I had anticipated yesterday. But that still bears watching.

Some strengthening also occurred overnight with Charley's central pressure having fallen to 969 mb by 7 am and its maximum wind speed having increased to 110 mph. It could become a major hurricane later today before landfall.

[Brent]

Probably just a fluctuation. It's just 1 mb.

[Derek Ortt]

But the IR is also not as impressive.

It is possible that this will not rapidly intensify. In fact, RI was never forecast by anyone. Maybe we will end up with a marginal cat 3 at landfall or a strong 2

[Brent]

But the IR is also not as impressive.

It is possible that this will not rapidly intensify. In fact, RI was never forecast by anyone. Maybe we will end up with a marginal cat 3 at landfall or a strong 2

If that happens, Florida will get lucky.

[Stormcenter]

But the IR is also not as impressive.

It is possible that this will not rapidly intensify. In fact, RI was never forecast by anyone. Maybe we will end up with a marginal cat 3 at landfall or a strong 2

That would be great news for Florida residents.

[dougjp]

According to this, it appears the slight delay in the turn from NNW to N spared a direct hit on the most heavily populated areas:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s ... charley_dc

Interesting they had the foresight to turn off electrical power just prior to arrival, smart.

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.geocities.com/weatherwizard88/charley.html

Between 9PM and 10PM from the looks of it right now.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. Got some new information this morning concerning Disney World. Typhoon Lagoon, Downtown Disney, and the Animal Kingdom are shut down today. Magic Kingdom, MGM, and Epcot will be open until 1 PM today. But the best advice is don't even do outdoors today as conditions will only go downhill throughout the day today.

LATEST ADVISORY: At 7 AM EDT, Hurricane Charley strengthens. Wind gusts were close to 124 mph in Cuba. Hurricane Charley is centered about 75 miles west of Key West, Florida. Movement is towards the north northwest at near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Charley is expected to strengthen into a category 3 hurricane before making landfall on the west coast of Florida near the Tampa/Clearwater area later this afternoon and evening. Minimum central pressure is 969 mb or 28.61 inches.

LATEST WATCHES/WARNINGS: A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S.
COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM
NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

[Thunder44]

this is from this morning's disscussion

...Special features...
Hurricane Charley centered near 24.3n 82.9w...or 75 miles WSW of
Key West...at 13/1100 UTC moving NNW 16 kt. Estimated
minimum pressure is 969 mb and maximum sustained wind speed is
95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. See latest NHC intermediate public
advisory under AWIPS/wmo headers miatcpat3/wtnt33 knhc and the
full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/wmo header miatcmat3/wtnt23
knhc for more details. Charley continues its steady growth with
an upper anticyclone just to the E of the center with cirrus
spreading northward over S Florida. Radar from Key West shows a
well-defined eye emerging into the se Gulf with radar indicating
mid-level winds above 115 kt. Satellite shows a more symmetric
storm than 12 hours ago with the eye becoming more distinct and
slightly colder cloud tops. Band of tstms is moving over S
Florida.

[cebers01]

Seems TWC isn't wanting to report what the radar is seeing, indicating winds above 110 on Charley's NNE eyewall now...