Charley Advisories

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hurricanemike
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Charley AFWA Update

#1841 Postby hurricanemike » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:32 pm

TPNT KGWC 121855
A. HURRICANE CHARLEY (THREE)
B. 12/1831Z (55)
C. 20.5N/7
D. 81.7W/6
E. ONE/GOES12
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/25HRS -12/1831Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07A/ PBO SML IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DVORAK CONS BRKN DUE TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. MG EYE SURR BY 45NM LG BAND. ADDED 0.5 FOR BF.
FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.7 (EMBEDDED CDO CLOUD REGION)

PIATT
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#1842 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:40 pm

This probably temporary.....
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#1843 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:43 pm

We will see tomorrow morning if Charley is 84 W or 82 W when he crosses 25 N.
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#1844 Postby Pebbles » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:50 pm

Usually I can figure it out..but not this time..layman language please?
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#1845 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:53 pm

If you know abvreviations and weather terminology, you should be all right....
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#1846 Postby Pebbles » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:57 pm

I am no where as strong with my abbriviations and terminology as I would like to be...thus why I asked if someone could give it in layman language *winks*
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#1847 Postby PamH » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:14 pm

My son is in Guantanamo Bay. I will have to call him.
Pam
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stormernie

Charley now moving north

#1848 Postby stormernie » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:18 pm

In reviewing the high resolution infared loop, it is now becoming clear that Charley is heading on a almost due north course.

Eye also becoming better defined and thunderstorms building around eye wall.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Cuba???

#1849 Postby hial2 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:18 pm

Mr Knight, Charly is still quite a ways away from the Cuban coastline...In fact, according to the link you supplied, the eye is in the reforming stage and not making much headway north at this time..
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Bad link!! n/t

#1850 Postby hial2 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:23 pm

BAd link
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#1851 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:24 pm

I disagree, its been moving almost precisely NW to NNW for 3 to 4 hours. Visible is much better to track with than IR... IR is useless for tracking canes unless there is a clearly defined eyewall/visible eye, which there is definitely not with charely currently. It undergoing lot of organizatoin phases right now and its hard to track without recon or visible...
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HKY

#1852 Postby hial2 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:26 pm

HKY, you are contradicting yourself..re-read your post
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#1853 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:27 pm

Reformation of the eyewall during what appears to be an eyewall replacement cycle isn't a very good indicator of movement on an IR Channel ...
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#1854 Postby tallywx » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:28 pm

The two radar sources, Key West and Cuban radar, still show a steady NNW track.
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#1855 Postby hial2 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:28 pm

HKY, you are contradicting yourself..re-read your post
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#1856 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:29 pm

Im not contradicting myself. look at visible not IR. its quite simple...
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#1857 Postby stormtrackerFDK1 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:33 pm

It is NOT moving north. HKY you are correct. One could even take a look at the radar of out cuba and still see a NNW movement
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#1858 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:36 pm

During the morning I talked with my grandparents who are in Charley's Path, they live around the area of Batabanó Bay. If you don't know where Batabanó Bay is the only you have to do is look in the loop the area of water between the Isle of Youth and Cuba, the water is not deep, muddy, and very warm, you can walk offshore for a long period of time and you would still be able to stand up without drowning problems. They said that although they knew a hurricane was coming the electricity was out because of 2 power plants failures. When I talk with them they didn't knew where the hurricane was located, so I informed them that they it will make landfall today during the afternoon and/or night. Sunday we will talk with them again because it's my uncle's birthday, and I will have more information about the damage and their experience.
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Re: Cuba???

#1859 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:39 pm

hial2 wrote:Mr Knight, Charly is still quite a ways away from the Cuban coastline...In fact, according to the link you supplied, the eye is in the reforming stage and not making much headway north at this time..


It's still moving at the same speed...same direction. It is only a 45 minute loop...so that means its only going to show a movement of 12 or so miles. Given that this is a 240 mile range...that's not much. The eye is well formed and structured.
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Re: Charley AFWA Update

#1860 Postby wlfpack81 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:40 pm

hurricanemike wrote:TPNT KGWC 121855
A. HURRICANE CHARLEY (THREE)
B. 12/1831Z (55)
C. 20.5N/7
D. 81.7W/6
E. ONE/GOES12
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/25HRS -12/1831Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI


A = Storm Name Obviously
B = Time of update 12th, 1831gmt (2:31p edt, 1:31cdt etc/)
C and D = lat/lon 20.5n81.7w
E = not totally sure but assume it's a satellite fix
F = Dvorak #'s
T5 current intesity from satellite derivations/actual intensity is a 5/T intensity went up 1.5/ over the last 25hrs

A Dvorak # of 5 is equal to 90kts (roughly 105mph)
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