Frances Advisories

[donsutherland1]

Since 1950, there have been only four seasons in which two or more major hurricanes made landfall in the United States:

1950: 2
1954: 3
1955: 3
1985: 2

With the exception of 1954, which saw one Category 4 hurricane make landfall, all these years saw only Category 3 storms make landfall.

In addition, in none of the above years did the MEI average above zero during the hurricane season. 1985 came closest with a -0.32 average. So far, 2004 is comfortably above zero.

At this time, it remains to be seen whether Frances will be a major hurricane at landfall (should it make landfall as appears highly likely, particularly from central Florida to North Carolina). It could weaken prior to landfall especially if it takes a track similar to that of Gaston.

As for the seasons in which two or more major hurricanes made landfall in the U.S., all of those seasons had 11 or more named storms and the 2004 season remains on track for such an outcome. Moreover, all of these seasons saw a named storm develop October 14 or later and all saw 6 or more named storms develop September 1 or later.

[BUD]

Where did you get your data from??Local MET?????

[adelphi_sky]

Wow. You're right. I thnk they would need at least 48 hours. That would be a very tough call. Especially during a holiday weekend when you have so many people coming INTO the area. Sheesh. I'm glad I'm not in their shoes.

[Stormcenter]

Weakness in Ridge created by Gaston seems more and more likely for
Frances to make that all to familiar turn over Central Bahamas...Floyd?
SC/NC once again lookout.....I think S. Florida once again proves that this is not part of Hurricane Alley.....NC/SC, Panhandle of Fl and Gulf Coast are so much more susceptible. A busy pattern like the 40's and 50's was highly unusual.........We will not be getting Frances in S. FL

I guess if you keep on hoping (SC/NC and not FL coastline)then maybe it will happen.
I keep on hoping Frances will turn out sea and not bother anyone but the fishes.

[Matthew5]

I don't think Gastons weakness will be there by thursday into Friday. I'm going with a south Florida landfall.

[KBBOCA]

OK, there was something about incorrect intensity in the 11 a.m. discussion from FRIDAY by Stewart. Here's the link and an excerpt:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/di ... .011.shtml?

FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
INCREASING SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO AT LEAST SOME SLOW
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL SHARPLY BRINGS DOWN
THE INTENSITY TO 73 KT AFTER 72 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FICTITIOUS AND
'SELF-INFLICTED' BY THE GFS/SHIPS MODEL...DUE TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK BEING ABOUT 180 NMI NORTH OF THE GFS FORECAST
POSITIONS IN 72-120H. THIS PUTS FRANCES IN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A VERY INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT
ALL THE MODELS DEVELOP OVER FRANCES. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED
AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION.

[adelphi_sky]

Yeah. I think Frances is way too far off. Maybe if it were a bit closer there might be an issue.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Lots of time for other features to influence the track. Even stuff we can't see yet.

[HollynLA]

I'm just not seeing the NC/SC landfall. I'm thinking more around south or central Florida.

BTW: I'm new here but participate in other extreme weather boards.

[dhweather]

Lots of time for other features to influence the track. Even stuff we can't see yet.

BINGO!

We just get to watch and wait.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yup, I am no MET and certianly not as versed as some other folks here, and I'm a newbie too!! I HAVE been in over 20 TC's. The track on this one will be much clearer on Tues. and that comes from a local met who is pretty savvy.

[AussieMark]

Getting closer to Herberts box.

[img][/img]

[flyingphish]

Love Hebert's Square or Box..if you wish. A very good indicator historically. If a storm crosses the Square..then folks from S.Fl. to Texas may get washed. This is simply history and nothing more..but yes an indicator I think.

[MWatkins]

Here's a quick summary of the brand new model guidance so far:

CMC: Back to the west with a south FL landfall. The last 00Z run was suggesting an NC threat. - TREND: WEST

NOGAPS: Still a turn to the north...but a full 300 nautical miles to the west of the previous run. TREND: WEST

GFS: Continued threat to SFL but 1.5 days slower. Trend: NO CHANGE.

(EDITED 1:44AM): GFDL: No real change...the 18Z at 126 was at 27.0 73.1...the 00Z at 126 hours is now 27.4 73.9...a light westward trend but I will call it even...NO CHANGE

(EDITED 1:47AM) UKMET: More bad news. More or less right on the last track but a little faster...here are the last 3 way points for the model:

00UTC 03.09.2004 25.3N 79.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2004 26.4N 81.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2004 28.4N 83.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TREND: No change.

EURO(EDITED 1:57AM) Very bad solution if you live in southen Florida. But...NO CHANGE.

Doesn't matter to me if some obscure non-operational/seldom used/expermental models are trending north...the ones above are the big boys that have the most success with track forecasting.

The other ones are the same models that have been screaming fish all along...

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

Good job Mike. I cant wait to see the new runs for the more important models. What time do you think they will be finished with their respective runs?

<RICKY>

[MWatkins]

Good job Mike. I cant wait to see the new runs for the more important models. What time do you think they will be finished with their respective runs?

<RICKY>

GFDL: Anytime soon
UKMET: 1/2 hour
Euro: 3AM

Or so...just guesing based on when they are usually done.

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

Mike, dont tell me that you are gonna stay up until 3am yet again like you did last night. Dont you get mentally exhausted with all this overworking?

<RICKY>

[MSRobi911]

Mike

Here on the MS Coast local WLOX weather lady showed map with Hurricane Frances trac with Florida almost not even in the picture and said "Some good news, looks like Frances will head back off to the north". Never have they had the state of Florida so "off" the map that you couldn't tell what was what. Are the Professional Mets getting different info than the ones on this board?

Thanks for your input as it is greatly appreciated and looked for.

[Frank P]

GFS takes Frances over S FL and into the GOM heading towards Mobile on Day 8/9 ... check it out..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _fpc.shtml

[MWatkins]

Mike, dont tell me that you are gonna stay up until 3am yet again like you did last night. Dont you get mentally exhausted with all this overworking?

<RICKY>

Ah...I can sleep in tomorrow. Compared to being on the air this is a piece of cake....the audio stuff...for some reason really tires me out.

But...zero chance of me staying up till 3 tomorrow morning. Unless of course...cough cough...

MW