Frances Advisories

[Aquawind]

With the Accuracy and confidence NHC has in the forecast and your in the cone tomorrow..OF Course..Thats what the NHC forecast and the beauty of the knowledge on this board is for...Don't wait till a Watch is issued..Things could become scarce early depending on location..I imagine the preparations and purchases will be even better for Frances..A Major Hurricane is forecasted...

[Stephanie]

Excellent discussion Mike!

Everyone in the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Domincan Republic/Haiti please heed the preparation advice now!!

[dhweather]

Please folks, you guys in the southern tip of Fl. and the keys prepare now. Don't wait for the rush when everything will be sparse. Stay tuned over the next 4 days, but please get the essentials. Batteries, gas, and canned goods. Do it now!
Amawea

AMEN!

I'd much rather be sitting on $200 of unused supplies than wondering why
I'm living worse than a caveman.

[goodlife]

once again..and i'm just going to keep repeating this over and over...
I hope this thing stays the hell out of the GOM...and AWAY from New Orleans!!

[Stormelf]

We were running errands today because we're supposed to move to Germany in 2 weeks (yikes) and I'd say more than 50% of the conversations were about Frances. Long line at the oil change shop- people getting cars tuned up, oil changed, gas tanks filled, all talking about Frances. Mechanics reminding everyone to keep their tanks topped off and buy supplies. At AAA, everyone talking about Frances and evac plans. Lots of water being sold already, but plenty of food and batteries on shelves. Don't know what Home Depot looked like. No one was very concerned here about Charley but this is different. Buy the stuff- we bought it for Charley and are now pretty well stocked up- not much left to do. Phew!

[dhweather]

We were running errands today because we're supposed to move to Germany in 2 weeks (yikes) and I'd say more than 50% of the conversations were about Frances. Long line at the oil change shop- people getting cars tuned up, oil changed, gas tanks filled, all talking about Frances. Mechanics reminding everyone to keep their tanks topped off and buy supplies. At AAA, everyone talking about Frances and evac plans. Lots of water being sold already, but plenty of food and batteries on shelves. Don't know what Home Depot looked like. No one was very concerned here about Charley but this is different. Buy the stuff- we bought it for Charley and are now pretty well stocked up- not much left to do. Phew!

Better to be safe than sorry! Glad you are planning ahead!!!!

[Brent]

Yes, it is a threat to all of Florida(particularly South Florida), BUT, no need for panic yet. It's 5-7 days away.

[RichG]

it looks like the bamd all the lot shifted south not north. I am missing something?

[hurricanefloyd5]

about 140 to 145 by the 11 p.m. adv.

[NOAA-NHC Saubers1]

150 mph winds are expected by tomorrow afternoon, continuing mre westerly than northwesterly, some models are showing slight turns starting to occur to the north, but these are unfounded, as a mojority of models show westerly tracks

[lp8391]

path....Please, please put the word out..... makes sure all pets have food, water, and NAME TAGS ON!! We currently have over 1600 pets that have not been reunited with their owners from when Charley went through.. Alot of them have been sent to rescues in the North FL area... We are trying very hard to reunite them with their owners, but very difficult when they do not have I.D. tags on.

Thanx... I know a little off topic, but all of Gods little creatures need protecting, and after seeing what Charley did I hope and pray for those that wind up in Frances path!

[Frank P]

Hey I think this is great information..... my two bassets will have their IDs on for sure....

[dhweather]

This isn't off topic!! It is great information that folks need to be reminded
of, me included!!!!

[WeatherEmperor]

That is true. I have a bird and I could not imagine how I would feel if he got lost somewhere during a hurricane.

<RICKY>

[Terry]

lp8391,

Thank you for that reminder. I worked nine straight days at the emergency pet shelter in Polk County caring for Charley's four-legged victims and have only taken off this weekend for some r and r.

Name tags and pictures for all pets are a MUST and ensuring their safety prior to a hurricane's landfall.

We need more pet-friendly hurricane shelters in FLA.

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 17

Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 28, 2004

...Frances turning toward the west-northwest...

a tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the northern
Leeward Islands on Sunday.

Interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances over
the next several days.

At 11 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 18.3 north... longitude 53.4 west or about 635
miles...1025 km... east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Frances has begun to turn more toward the west...as forecast...and
is now moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr and
this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Conditions appear favorable for some additional
strengthening...and Frances could reach near category five
intensity on Sunday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...27.99 inches.

Repeating the 11 PM AST position...18.3 N... 53.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am AST.

[Rainband]

I liked nw better

[Stormcenter]

Well nothing has changed.

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 17


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2004



intensity estimates for Frances are almost identical to the last
forecast cycle so the initial intensity will remain at 115 kt.

The initial motion is 300/08. Frances remains on track and continues
to turn back toward the west-northwest. There is little change to
the previous track forecasts or reasonings. Most of the NHC model
guidance agrees on gradually building the subtropical ridge
westward to the north of Frances throughout the forecast period.
With the continued slower motion in the early forecast
periods...minor adjustments are made to the 4 and 5 day forecast
positions.

Frances is embedded in a low-shear environment with excellent
outflow in all quadrants. The SSTs are near 29c...and additional
intensification should occur. It is possible that Frances could
reach category 5 intensity at any time during the forecast period.

Forecaster Jarvinen

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 17

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2004

intensity estimates for Frances are almost identical to the last
forecast cycle so the initial intensity will remain at 115 kt.

The initial motion is 300/08. Frances remains on track and continues
to turn back toward the west-northwest. There is little change to
the previous track forecasts or reasonings. Most of the NHC model
guidance agrees on gradually building the subtropical ridge
westward to the north of Frances throughout the forecast period.
With the continued slower motion in the early forecast
periods...minor adjustments are made to the 4 and 5 day forecast
positions.

Frances is embedded in a low-shear environment with excellent
outflow in all quadrants. The SSTs are near 29c...and additional
intensification should occur. It is possible that Frances could
reach category 5 intensity at any time during the forecast period.

Forecaster Jarvinen

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/0300z 18.3n 53.4w 115 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 18.8n 54.5w 120 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 19.4n 56.3w 125 kt
36hr VT 30/1200z 19.8n 58.6w 125 kt
48hr VT 31/0000z 20.1n 61.1w 125 kt
72hr VT 01/0000z 21.2n 66.3w 125 kt
96hr VT 02/0000z 22.4n 70.6w 125 kt
120hr VT 03/0000z 24.0n 74.0w 125 kt

[Ixolib]

That is true. I have a bird and I could not imagine how I would feel if he got lost somewhere during a hurricane.

<RICKY>

My wife's got three birds - a Macaw and two Quakers... I think I'd jump for joy if they got "lost" in a hurricane... JUST KIDDING, but those birds surely do hate me!!