Ivan Advisories

[Anonymous]

Also does anyone know what effect a cat 5 storm has on the enviroment around it? I mean by this:

Is a weaker TC more likely to be picked up by a trough than a stronger TC (Or visa versa)?

Usually, the stronger the storm, the sharper the turn north as the upper atmosphere has more influence in steering...You go to a new/higher steering level the lower the pressure

[KBBOCA]

I'm very much praying for all in Ivan's path.

Question: what's the highest number of storm names that have been retired in any given year? Seems that we're going to have at least two, if not three, retired this year if Ivan doesn't weaken.

[ColdFront77]

Here are the number of miles the center of Hurricane Ivan moved in the 24 hour period between 11:00 PM ET, Tuesday through 11:00 PM Eastern, last night:

..8:00 pm, Tues. to 11:00 pm, Tues.: 55.7 miles
11:00 pm, Tues. to ..2:00 am, Wed.: 47.7 miles
..5:00 am, Wed. to ..8:00 am, Wed.: 47.4 miles
..8:00 am, Wed. to 11:00 am, Wed.: 49.2 miles
11:00 am, Wed. to ..2:00 pm, Wed.: 60.5 miles
..2:00 pm, Wed. to ..5:00 pm, Wed.: 51.5 miles
..5:00 pm, Wed. to ..8:00 pm, Wed.: 47.0 miles
..8:00 pm, Wed. to 11:00 pm, Wed.: 49.0 miles

[yoda]

Here are the number of miles it moved in the last 24 hours:

..8:00 pm, Tues. to 11:00 pm, Tues.: 55.7 miles
11:00 pm, Tues. to ..2:00 am, Wed.: 47.7 miles
..5:00 am, Wed. to ..8:00 am, Wed.: 47.4 miles
..8:00 am, Wed. to 11:00 am, Wed.: 49.2 miles
11:00 am, Wed. to ..2:00 pm, Wed.: 60.5 miles
..2:00 pm, Wed. to ..5:00 pm, Wed.: 51.5 miles
..5:00 pm, Wed. to ..8:00 pm, Wed.: 47.0 miles
..8:00 pm, Wed. to 11:00 pm, Wed.: 49.0 miles

Thanks for that info Tom!!

[senorpepr]

I'll probably get flamed for saying this but...looking at Ivan right now I think Granada may have gotten off easy! Yikes.

I agree. Imagine what would have happened...

[USAwx1]

Is really not that different from the previous 12z WED run. The new 0z THU run however does have some slight changes. Recall that the 12z WED GGEM run indicated a prolonged WNW motion w/ Ivan after it emerges from the western tip of Cuba, then, SHARP NE turn just before Ivan is able to cross 90 DEG west longitude.

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

The New 0z THU run however is somewhat different with respect to how long the WNW motion continues after Ivan Crosses the western tip of Cuba before he turns

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

Notice the duration of the WNW motion of Ivan is cut short in comparison to the 12z WED run, where Ivan Turns Northward before crossing 87 DEG west Longitude. At the same rate however there is LESS of a sharp Northwestward component in his track.

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 531_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 695_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 492_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 133_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 134_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 135_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 136_50.gif

There may also be another BIG severe weather issue over the Eastern US as the remnants of Ivan progress northward up along or just west of the Appalachians.



As far as the landfall solution is concerned, little has changed since the 12z run. Still a FL panhandle landfall unfortunately. On this track, Ivan would take a path between those of bonnie and Charley.




Ivan formed at a low latitude, as did Charley, and Frances--our other two Category four hurricanes this year. Both have been Florida landfalls. Ivan is similar in both respects to its point of origin and intensity, and the 0z GGEM would seem to support the overall track which the majority of other tropical cyclones have taken this year (into contact w/ the US mainland or close to it in some capacity, and parallel to the east coast).

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

Interestingly enough the 0z THU UKMET has also come around to this idea, where the Due northward movement begins once Ivan reaches 85 or 86W and is a slight westward adjustment in the track from the 12z run (shown below)

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

And here’s the current 0z RUN (as denoted by the blue line):



it also would suggest a FL panhandle landfall.

The 0z NOGAPS is similar to the 12z WED run---Charley like track or just slightly NW thereof after landfall.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... =ngp_namer

It will be interesting to see what the 0z ECMWF has to offer.

Although anything is possible, I am becoming more confident at this time that the threats to the central Gulf in an area say from The MS/AL boarder westward to Beaumont TX is decreasing, and especially diminished for the western Gulf along the TX coast From Beaumont to Brownsville. My concerns regarding a POTENTIAL landfall along the Eastern Gulf coast from the MS/AL boarder to the Keys are increasing.

ALSO as of the 2 am advisory from the TPC Ivan has become our first CAT 5 of the season officially. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 160 MPH.

Ahh the sleepless nights head.

[Javlin]

You know about 30mins. ago I was giving Ivan .4'N and 1.6'W for the next 9> 12hrs.Ivan is right on track Jamaica hopefully out of the woods would not lay my bottom dollar but feel confident about it.I gave extra latitude N as a gimme for poleward movement.I think this will fall in line with a further track W maybe as Ortt mention possible.The UKMET further W only time will tell.I believe it's time to call it a night.Have to wake up shortly.

[ColinD]

wow ... 3am here. woke up for the latest

[BUD]

If Ivan stayed a cat 5 where ever he hits does anyone know what his winds would be if he strengthens anymore

[yoda]

So just asking here.. curious... what about the EC of FLA? Any threat there?

[Huckster]

Unless I have made an error, according to the Best Track data, Ivan is the farthest south cat. 5 hurricane since 1851. Also, I am not aware of any data in the reanalysis project that would dispute that. This would make Ivan the southernmost Atlantic cat. 5 to date. If anyone has information which disputes or corrects this, please pass it along

[yoda]

Well... his winds could be anything.. we will just have to watch Ivan very closely...

[ColdFront77]

.....and.....

11:00 pm, Wed. to ..2:00 am, Thurs.: 27.7 miles

Significant slowdown indicated!

You're welcome, Matt.

[HurricaneBill]

I'm very much praying for all in Ivan's path.

Question: what's the highest number of storm names that have been retired in any given year? Seems that we're going to have at least two, if not three, retired this year if Ivan doesn't weaken.

1955 and 1995 both had 4 names retired.

1955
Hurricane Connie (Category 4) (Hit NC as a Cat 3)
Hurricane Diane (Category 3) (Hit NC as a Cat 2 only a week after Connie. Remnants caused deadly flooding in New England)
Hurricane Ione (Category 3) (Hit NC as a Cat 3)
Hurricane Janet (Category 5) (Hit the Yucatan as a Cat 5 and Mexico as a Cat 4)

1995
Hurricane Luis (Category 4) (Hit the Lesser Antilles as a Cat 4 and Newfoundland as an extratropical Cat 3)
Hurricane Marilyn (Category 3) (Hit Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands as a Cat 3)
Hurricane Opal (Category 4) (Hit the Florida panhandle as a Cat 3)
Hurricane Roxanne (Category 3) (Hit the Yucatan as a Cat 3)

[ericinmia]

Appears on same track as GFDL...


-Eric

[tronbunny]

So just asking here.. curious... what about the EC of FLA? Any threat there?

Yoda,
I think Frances demonstarted that even an EC landfall Cat2/3 will mess up the the west coast of FL and threaten anything on the GOM.
A mid west coast FL landfall has the same problem, with the same twist, but anywhere up the Atlantic seaboard.
I suggest that any major FL peninsular landfall is a double or triple whammy.

[ericinmia]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[yoda]

Appears on same track as GFDL...


-Eric

But if you go farther out... the GFDL turns right faster than the ECMWF by just a LITTLE BIT...

[wlfpack81]

Looks like in addition to being another FL event, the SE-ern U.S. could be in for more rain/tornado event. Amazing how a few weeks ago things seemed dead with the tropics.

[ilmc172pilot]

admiral....there be whales here...love that one......sadly.......This beast looks NC bound