Frances Advisories

[MGC]

As long as a hurricane moves away from any given location in mid ocean upwelling in not an issue. I see nothing in the short term to hinder intensification save an eyewall replacement cycle.......MGC

[perk]

Weatherboy1 you might want to look at the latest model run that Cyclone just posted. I see no indication of a NW movement except for the nc98 which we all know is out to lunch.

[dhweather]

Mike, very nice work!

I would like to offer, while Frances is no immediate threat to
the US, many of us forget to check our hurricane plans annually.

Frances may or may not threaten anyone, but right now,
you won't have any trouble stocking up on some essentials:

Flashlights
Batteries for flashlights
Radios
Batteries for radios
Water, enough for at least three days for your household.
Canned food
Manual can opener
Other foods that do not require refrigeration
Any medications you may need
And so on.

Make sure you have your evacuation route planned out.



While I can't tell you where Frances will make landfall, if at all, I can
guarantee you this - if she approaches the US as a major hurricane,
particularly with Charley fresh on everyone's mind, you will not find
ANY of these supplies within 100 miles (or more) of the area expected for landfall.

[c5Camille]

south... cat 4-5

[cycloneye]

Those models globals and tropical are in consensus.

[Aquawind]

Precisely, Its going to change direction to the north, drawn in by low pressure from gaston.

Well I mentioned this possibility yesterday and everything I have read says otherwise..I hope it happens..Crazy how now it seems to be going west and some models even have it further south than Forecasted..NHC has nailed it so far..

[NOAA-NHC Saubers1]

Thats ridiculous upwelling wont affect this storm, Category 5 expected for tomorrow, with water temperatures being so high, and it moving at a consistent 9mph nothings gonna get in the way of this one....get ready

[chris_fit]

Certainly not looking good for FL

I should get my shopping done too here in Melbourne

[Weatherboy1]

Weatherboy1 you might want to look at the latest model run that Cyclone just posted. I see no indication of a NW movement except for the nc98 which we all know is out to lunch.

It's not much, but the last two BAMD plots show a SLIGHT turn to the NW (really -- between WNW and NW). This is only a very small change from previous runs. But it's worth pointing out because if future tropical model runs show more continuity with the GFDL (which is further to the NE and well E of FL), then that is encouraging.

Again, this is a VERY SMALL deviation, but it's there, so I posted a mention of it. To see a graphical view of this, go to the following link:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

[schmita]

BAMM 19.6N 61.5W
48 hours?
Not crazy about this one, Luis..........
irina

[Janie34]

Hrrmmm, I wasn't as clear as I should have been. Hypothetically speaking, assuming this storm reaches Cat 5 strengh tomorrow what would be the chances that it could maintain this intensity for 4 or 5 days? Even with the warm SSTs and weak shear? Its the rare Atlantic storm that can maintain that kind of intensty for over 24/48 hours. I'm more interested in the mechanisms responsible for that kind of situation rather than Frances in particular, at least on this thread. I suppose its more of a theoretical question than anything else. I knew I should have taken tropical met this semester. Gah.

[Hurricanegurl56]

should i buy my water and stuff for the hurricane? or do u think this one will move north to the carolinas or stay south of florida?

[abajan]

Buy the stuff.

[Stormcenter]

You can wait until tomorrow but it wouldn't be a bad idea if the NHC hasn't changed by then to do so..

[dhweather]

should i buy my water and stuff for the hurricane? or do u think this one will move north to the carolinas or stay south of florida?

You should ALWAYS be prepared during Hurricane season.
Mike has a great sticky to read on this. I offer this too:


I would like to offer, while Frances is no immediate threat to
the US, many of us forget to check our hurricane plans annually.

Frances may or may not threaten anyone, but right now,
you won't have any trouble stocking up on some essentials:

Flashlights
Batteries for flashlights
Radios
Batteries for radios
Water, enough for at least three days for your household.
Canned food
Manual can opener
Other foods that do not require refrigeration
Any medications you may need
And so on.

Make sure you have your evacuation route planned out.



While I can't tell you where Frances will make landfall, if at all, I can
guarantee you this - if she approaches the US as a major hurricane,
particularly with Charley fresh on everyone's mind, you will not find
ANY of these supplies within 100 miles (or more) of the area expected for landfall.

[NOAA-NHC Saubers1]

Too early to say, wait until tommorow, more accurate information will be available tomorrow, this system may turn north at the last second....this is a waiting game.

[WeatherEmperor]

I would wait until at least Monday morning. But you should always keep your hurricane plans at hand on June 1.

<RICKY>

[PTPatrick]

What may ask is the significance of the Hebert box...is it like the point where history says if it goes north of it, it is likely to recurve, and south of it likely to hit the US mainland?

[amawea]

Please folks, you guys in the southern tip of Fl. and the keys prepare now. Don't wait for the rush when everything will be sparse. Stay tuned over the next 4 days, but please get the essentials. Batteries, gas, and canned goods. Do it now!
Amawea

[Air Force Met]

North...by a whisker.