Ivan Advisories

[ilmc172pilot]

YIKES AND DOOUBLE YIKES.......AND SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE IT HEADING TOWARDS NC........

[MWatkins]

Mike, do you really think this is the superensemble?

It is...it is not the complete run though. The big 3 global models arent in there yet...so it is not a representative track.

NW

[yoda]

Hmmm... most interesting...

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php (If someone could post the image.. I can't and the red X comes up... Thanks! )

now UKMET is the western outlier there...

The GFDL takes Ivan up FL... then back out into the Atlantic...

and the BAMM, BAMD, and the LBAR show it missing FL BARELY to the est and entering the NW BAHAMAS...

and the A98E... well who cares and who knows?

[senorpepr]

Senor,

I see you beat me to it.

Kudos.

I think we hit send around the same time. Looks like we're both on recon like a hawk.

[tronbunny]

Ivan could be viewed as that living entity, now.

In the last UKMET that I could play with:
http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html
Ivan is making it's own local weather patterns.

The oft mentioned ridges and troughs seem to be no real influence!
There appears to be a much broader flow over the central Atlantic that will draw it clockwise.
Eerily, like the recently mentioned great red spot storm on Jupiter.
It is becoming a major part of the global pattern.

[mobilebay]

You don't think if Ivan doesnt slow that he could make it to the GOM before the trough that is forecast to come across the CONUS, which could leave him stranded somewhere in the GOM waiting for some substinate steering currents?

Absolutly. The GFS based models are out of their minds. They are running way to for south and east. See my post on the GFDL.

[yoda]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 090601
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040909 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040909 0600 040909 1800 040910 0600 040910 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 69.5W 15.2N 72.2W 16.6N 74.7W 17.7N 76.6W
BAMM 13.7N 69.5W 14.9N 72.1W 16.0N 74.3W 17.1N 76.1W
A98E 13.7N 69.5W 14.7N 71.9W 15.8N 74.2W 16.7N 76.4W
LBAR 13.7N 69.5W 14.9N 71.9W 16.6N 74.5W 17.7N 76.6W
SHIP 140KTS 137KTS 132KTS 130KTS
DSHP 140KTS 137KTS 132KTS 109KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040911 0600 040912 0600 040913 0600 040914 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 77.8W 19.6N 79.6W 21.4N 80.5W 24.7N 78.4W
BAMM 18.0N 77.2W 19.8N 79.1W 22.2N 80.3W 25.3N 78.9W
A98E 17.3N 78.2W 18.2N 80.9W 19.1N 82.0W 20.3N 79.5W
LBAR 18.4N 78.3W 20.1N 80.7W 23.0N 81.1W 26.6N 79.2W
SHIP 134KTS 129KTS 126KTS 107KTS
DSHP 83KTS 79KTS 45KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 69.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 67.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 64.1W
WNDCUR = 140KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 925MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 140NM

[mobilebay]

This is GFS Bullcrap... See my post on how bad the GFDL alone is verifying. These models are way to for north and east.

[yoda]

This is GFS Bullcrap... See my post on how bad the GFDL alone is verifying. These models are way to for north and east.

True Mobilebay... but the LBAR is not based on the GFS. Or is it?

[southerngale]

160mph - WOWZERS!!

[mobilebay]

This is GFS Bullcrap... See my post on how bad the GFDL alone is verifying. These models are way to for north and east.

True Mobilebay... but the LBAR is not based on the GFS. Or is it?

I don't really know.. but I did hear one time it was really accurate in the deep tropics. What I can't get over is the GFDL alone is verifying a hundred and fifty miles north and east.

[yoda]

This is GFS Bullcrap... See my post on how bad the GFDL alone is verifying. These models are way to for north and east.

True Mobilebay... but the LBAR is not based on the GFS. Or is it?

I don't really know.. but I did hear one time it was really accurate in the deep tropics. What I can't get over is the GFDL alone is verifying a hundred and fifty miles north and east.

Now I am VERY curious as to what the new ECMWF will say. Will it change or stay the same? Come back in 45 mins to find out!! (Sorry if it seems like we are on a show... )

[mobilebay]

This is GFS Bullcrap... See my post on how bad the GFDL alone is verifying. These models are way to for north and east.

True Mobilebay... but the LBAR is not based on the GFS. Or is it?

I don't really know.. but I did hear one time it was really accurate in the deep tropics. What I can't get over is the GFDL alone is verifying a hundred and fifty miles north and east.

Now I am VERY curious as to what the new ECMWF will say. Will it change or stay the same? Come back in 45 mins to find out!! (Sorry if it seems like we are on a show... )

It will more than likely stay just about the same. That and the NOGAPS have been very consistant.

[BUD]

Thats just HORRIBLE!!!!!

[Hurrilurker]

I'll probably get flamed for saying this but...looking at Ivan right now I think Granada may have gotten off easy! Yikes.

[yoda]

This is GFS Bullcrap... See my post on how bad the GFDL alone is verifying. These models are way to for north and east.

True Mobilebay... but the LBAR is not based on the GFS. Or is it?

I don't really know.. but I did hear one time it was really accurate in the deep tropics. What I can't get over is the GFDL alone is verifying a hundred and fifty miles north and east.

Now I am VERY curious as to what the new ECMWF will say. Will it change or stay the same? Come back in 45 mins to find out!! (Sorry if it seems like we are on a show... )

It will more than likely stay just about the same. That and the NOGAPS have been very consistant.

Hmm. Then that would mean that the UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF all show a complete different path... interesting.

(I don't know the NOGAPS and UKMET paths.. so if I am wrong say so.)

[DAVE440]

Not sure what models I put "faith" in....

i'm just glad humpback whales aren't extinct yet
so they can sing and chase the probe away before
it's too late....


btw...odd that i can't log in to this forum using AOL but no
problem in IE. (dont ask me why i still have aol and dsl)

[mobilebay]

MIke the 2400 fix was near 68.1W, the 0100 fix is near 69.5. Not much slowing there to me. A degree and a half in 6 H. IMO>

Here are the last 5 advisory positions since 2pm this afternoon:

0908-18 13.1 67
0908-21 13.4 67.7
0909-00 13.4 68.4
0909-03 13.6 69.1
0909-06 13.7 69.5

The 3 hour movement is slower...but 1.5 degrees over 6 hours is 6 degrees of latitude per day...or 15 knots.
Agreed. Thanks for the clarification Mike.

The 12 hour motion has been closer to 17 knots.

This slowdown over the last 3 hours is probably why they noted "with some decrease in forward speed" in the 2am advisory.

MW

[FritzPaul]

Also does anyone know what effect a cat 5 storm has on the enviroment around it? I mean by this:

Is a weaker TC more likely to be picked up by a trough than a stronger TC (Or visa versa)?

[tronbunny]

Not sure what models I put "faith" in....

i'm just glad humpback whales aren't extinct yet
so they can sing and chase the probe away before
it's too late....

Yes, quite humorous.
the current forecasts are almost absurd.
I cannot get my head around the potential ugliness.
It IS just like a sci-fi movie