Frances Advisories

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040829 0000 040829 1200 040830 0000 040830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 53.0W 18.8N 54.6W 19.1N 56.4W 19.3N 58.6W
BAMM 18.1N 53.0W 18.8N 54.6W 19.2N 56.5W 19.4N 59.0W
A98E 18.1N 53.0W 18.9N 54.6W 20.0N 56.3W 21.1N 58.2W
LBAR 18.1N 53.0W 19.0N 54.6W 19.6N 56.5W 19.9N 58.7W
SHIP 115KTS 118KTS 116KTS 115KTS
DSHP 115KTS 118KTS 116KTS 115KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040831 0000 040901 0000 040902 0000 040903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 61.0W 19.9N 66.0W 20.9N 69.8W 22.5N 72.2W
BAMM 19.6N 61.5W 20.3N 66.9W 21.1N 71.2W 22.2N 74.0W
A98E 22.1N 61.0W 25.1N 66.9W 27.5N 71.2W 28.4N 72.9W
LBAR 20.3N 61.2W 21.2N 66.4W 21.7N 70.7W 22.6N 73.2W
SHIP 113KTS 105KTS 97KTS 89KTS
DSHP 113KTS 105KTS 97KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 53.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 51.6W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 50.1W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 948MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE

115 kts it remains.But the BAMD model puts it more closer to PR.

[Guest]

yeah, the image isnt working.

[Patrick99]

I've heard all the rationale for a S. FL hit, but I still am having a hard time buying it. I still think it is gaining too much latitude. I want to see some solid west movement before I jump on the Florida scenario.

[Wthrman13]

Even so, how long can a storm maintain a strong Cat 4 or a Cat 5 status?

As long as environmental conditions remain favorable, the answer is, indefinitely. There is no real "self-destruct" mechanism for strong hurricanes other than temporary eyewall replacement cycles and the like, but even these aren't always present in strong hurricanes. Isabel last year was a fairly steady-state Category 5 for quite a while, with no eye-wall replacement cycles (that I recall) at all. The reason, of course, why hurricanes tend not to maintain Cat 4 or 5 intensity for very long is that environmental conditions are too prone to change for the worse.

[Guest]

I think its 120kt. It looks to be a strong cat 4! but just one question. Why has the SHIPS done such a bad job forecasting this ones intensity? and why does it always weaken it too?

[Vortex]

Last 3-4 images are now due west....

http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.p ... ba3e6d93ae

[OtherHD]

Not surprised given the latest sat estimates.

[cycloneye]

I think that Mike Watkins knows more than me about the ships model and he can explain more.

[Brent]

[Guest]

I agree with Derek that tomorrow we will probably have another eye wall cycle. But after that, with an even larger eye/hurricane, I wouldn't be surprised to see strong cat 4/ cat 5.

[southerngale]

Hey Vortex, switch back to storm2k. That link should be: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=39220

[lilbump3000]

The reason why i pick it will go south due to the present movement it is doing now. Basicly WNW to almost due W now. Now if it were moving on that NW track like it were this morning, then i would have picked north of it.

[wx247]

Still looks more like WNW to me.

[dixiebreeze]

And away we go! It this the much looked for turn to the west?

[Wthrman13]

We wont have a cat 5 tomorrow in all liklihood as this will likely go through another eye wall cycle

What makes you think that? The eye has been pretty steady-state today (if anything, it's gotten a little wider), and I see no signs of an outer concentric eyewall forming.

[Matthew5]

I think after every eye wall cycle the storm will grow in size with a larger eye. Then that new eye will bomb out like this one did.

[hial2]

For the last 2 hrs or so, Frances has been moving almost due west..

I hopethis info helps you out

[Guest]

No, I think it will still go wnw for a while. Remember how these thigns can create their own environments.

[chris_fit]

WNW

[NOAA-NHC Saubers1]

Precisely, Its going to change direction to the north, drawn in by low pressure from gaston.