Ivan Advisories

[MBismyPlayground]

Why am I getting this horrible feeling in my gut that this might out do any of the others??? Alot of unique characteristics in this one. I think Ivan has a bag of tricks in store for us that no one can really begin to predict.

[ilmc172pilot]

Holy crap....thats coming my way.......

[senorpepr]

Senor....How much stronger could it really get?? Being that is has not found the warmest SST's...

I'm not sure at this point. I'm amazed.

[hurricanemike]

Senor,

I see you beat me to it.

Kudos.

[mobilebay]

I just verified... Yup a degree and half in 6 hours. hardly slowing...

[mobilebay]

Right now, I'm leaning on this track, as well. It's obviously hard to tell much now, but, stepping back and looking at the big picture, I can easily see a panhandle Florida hit...but, we've still got plenty of time to watch. It'll be interesting to see which track verifies with this system.

also to note... The longer this thing keeps barreling westwerd, the more the eventual track will be. NO north turn yet.

[South Tampa]

Ivan is up there in the annals of history with Allen,Gilbert, Andrew, Mitch and dare it go there Camille and the Keys storm!!!

[MWatkins]

MIke the 2400 fix was near 68.1W, the 0100 fix is near 69.5. Not much slowing there to me. A degree and a half in 6 H. IMO>

Here are the last 5 advisory positions since 2pm this afternoon:

0908-18 13.1 67
0908-21 13.4 67.7
0909-00 13.4 68.4
0909-03 13.6 69.1
0909-06 13.7 69.5

The 3 hour movement is slower...but 1.5 degrees over 6 hours is 6 degrees of latitude per day...or 15 knots.

The 12 hour motion has been closer to 17 knots.

This slowdown over the last 3 hours is probably why they noted "with some decrease in forward speed" in the 2am advisory.

MW

[yoda]

Ivan is up there in the annals of history with Allen,Gilbert, Andrew, Mitch and dare it go there Camille and the Keys storm!!!

Don't forget Isabel... even though it was a CAT 5 over water...

[TSmith274]

This is my first post. This is a great board yall have here. Quick question though... Is this really the FSU Superensemble? I've always been told that this model was protected and not viewable by the public.

[tronbunny]

Definition of Monster=Ivan
This is an appropriate time to pray for all in it's path.
:-[

[Dmetal81]

A hurricane with hail? Ive never hear of this before... and frequent lightning in the EYEWALL? Wow.....

[bobbisboy]

I believe HUGO had a pressure of 918 east of the islands at one point during his track.

[yoda]

Welcome to the board TSmith274.

I really have no idea about the FSU SE... I will ask...

[senorpepr]

remember... 154kts at flight level. They have the sfc intensity at 140kts/160mph.

[FritzPaul]

You don't think if Ivan doesnt slow that he could make it to the GOM before the trough that is forecast to come across the CONUS, which could leave him stranded somewhere in the GOM waiting for some substinate steering currents?

[Stratosphere747]

Wow...Being the novice that I am....And I'm not even trying to imply any negative bias to the NHC...But looking at the 11pm disc...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 13.6N 69.1W 125 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 14.5N 71.0W 135 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 15.9N 73.4W 130 KT


And now 13.7 N... 69.5 W.

Would the unique strength of Ivan began to change not so much the models but the dynamics ahead of him??

[MWatkins]

Note that the only members of that ensemble track are:

The 18Z GFDL
The 00Z CMC
The 18Z MM5

Not too worried about it yet. The new GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS and UKMET aren't in there yet.

MW

[btsgmdad]

Mike, do you really think this is the superensemble?

[yoda]

Note that the only members of that ensemble track are:

The 18Z GFDL
The 00Z CMC
The 18Z MM5

Not too worried about it yet. The new GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS and UKMET aren't in there yet.

MW

Well... the GFDL is scary now.. it is eerily similar to what the ECMWF has been showing for the past couple of runs...