Frances Advisories

[KBBOCA]

Patrick wrote:

I played golf today down in S. Dade, and I swear, some guy who lives just off the 3rd hole had his windows boarded up, and his pool furniture secured. I kid you not.

It's quite possible that the home in question belongs to a snowbird. I know some snowbirds in my community who put up at least some of their shutters before they leave for parts north each year.

[stu]

GFS makes for a Sat landfall - but dont put too much faith in this - this far out

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnamavn1741.png

[Patrick99]

Patrick wrote:

I played golf today down in S. Dade, and I swear, some guy who lives just off the 3rd hole had his windows boarded up, and his pool furniture secured. I kid you not.

It's quite possible that the home in question belongs to a snowbird. I know some snowbirds in my community who put up at least some of their shutters before they leave for parts north each year.

I suppose that would make sense. Either that, or he's got bad Andrew memories.

[wxman57]

If this hurricane hits South Florida, we wouldn't be looking at the kind of devastation of Andrew or Charley. As of now, it should intensify, and the most favorable period for that currently is 2 days before reaching Florida. So assume winds of about 150mph. This storm would put hurricane winds from the keys to Melbourne easily. Massive destruction- probably at least 60 billion in damage. just what could happen.

If this hurricane hits Florida, it'll make Charley look like a tropical storm. Charley was even smaller than Andrew, with peak winds only about 5-10 miles across. Frances's peak winds are about 10 times larger than Charley and likely stronger.

[stormchazer]

There are a couple of things that I learned from Charley here in the Tampa Bay area.

1) Track and Intensity forecast are really just guides, with lage error margins. Follow the track closely, things can change at the last moment.

2) Even though you are inland or even on the other side of the state - winds can cause serious distruction.

Because I live several miles from the coast, I have always said that I would stay in my house in a Cat 3 or less storm. After talking to people in Orlando who went through Charley, I have certainly changed my plans.

If Frances does make landfall (I hope it does not), at least Charley is on everyone's mind and people may be more inclined to evacuate. Also since the track change was a surprise, perhaps everyone will be a little more prepared. I know I will.

I am a little concerned that too many people will evacuate. Lets face it, in Florida, where do you go? Charley sure has put the fear of God in us "inland" folks.

[Ixolib]

Come on up to the MS Gulf Coast - it's our slow season and the casinos (uh, sitting ducks) are looking for business!!

[Ixolib]

Does anyone know the links to where we can get these close-up views of the system?

Thy this:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

You can click anywhere in the Atlantic and get a closeup, plus set zoom, quality, and animated. The visibles are great, I don't like their IR representations as much as the ones linked from the NHC site, although they are larger.

MAN!! Looking at the infrared is amazing... I assume the darker reds are the strongest area, but what about the whiteish colored areas just outside the eye?

[weatherdude]

Just joining storm2k after viewing a bit of what you have written-I'm new to this so sorry if I don't catch on quickly.

What's up with Frances...SSD T-numbers at 6.0...models bringing cane close to the southeast/east coast around day 6-7. The A98E took a bit shift to the left of its prev forecast and now brings storm to 75W...25N. What are your feelings about what model has been doing the best and where she's headed...

[B-Bear]

Just joining storm2k after viewing a bit of what you have written-I'm new to this so sorry if I don't catch on quickly.

What's up with Frances...SSD T-numbers at 6.0...models bringing cane close to the southeast/east coast around day 6-7. The A98E took a bit shift to the left of its prev forecast and now brings storm to 75W...25N. What are your feelings about what model has been doing the best and where she's headed...

Although it is yet early to tell, the models are coming into more agreement with the passage of time. The NHC model seems to be an averaging of the other models, and it is bringing Frances close to southern Florida in 5 days.

I won't go into more detail than that, since there have already been a lot of threads started on this subject. But welcome to the board, have a look around, and peek through some of those other threads. They probably have the detailed information you're looking for.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Thanks guys!

[abajan]

That's beautiful, man...just awesome!

[James]

Wow!

[Hurrilurker]

I don't have a problem with any of these forecasts, whether they be wishcasts or just plain goofy. It's fun to make them and even read them. People need to be smart enough to listen first to official sources, no disclaimer should be required. On these boards I always first look to people with a solid track record and some real credentials, but everyone has the right to guess as to what's going to happen without being beaten up about it. In the case of ncweatherwizard of course I'm not going to start running towards or away from Home Depot just because of what he says, that's just common sense. But at least he didn't come in her shouting "MIAMI IS DOOMED!" or "MIAMI IS TOTALLY OFF THE HOOK NOW!", those are the ones that really make be laugh.

Of course when I start thinking how the average American should be intelligent and sensible enough to spot the truth and make the right decision, I start thinking about the 2000 election result. Hmm, better put those disclaimers in there after all! In large, bold, easy-to-read type. With pictures.

[weatherdude]

GFS 18z prog coming in right now (from NCEP) and has been fairly consistent in forecast the movment of Frances out to 120hr. After comparing the 126hr prog from the GFS 12z run...to the 120hr prog from the 18z run...the blocking high pressure system in Quebec seems to have moved slightly east due to a fropa over the east coast. I know any potential CONUS landfall 7-10 days out is impossible to forecast accurately...but I'm wondering about the potential for Frances to curve up the eastern seaboard or do somthig similar to Isabel last year. I actually don't think this system will enter the GOM at this point...it is a waiting game right now...

[daisy25]

Hurry up and wait as always Daisy

[LaBreeze]

Why then, are so many posters predicting a northward turn and up the east coast? Is there something that they see that the rest of us do not? Just wondering.

[perk]

Mike great forecast as usual. Thank you.

[snowflake]

Hopefully it will weaken before making a landfall. What we need is a front to come down just in time to push it out in the atlantic away from land.

[chris_fit]

Sure.. up until it reacher point 13 on that map and just continues wnw :-D

[Big_Steve]

:?:

I know we have several more days to go before hurricane forecasters have a better idea on just where Hurricane Frances might go if the storm does enter the GOM. This early in the forecast period should anyone who lives along the Mississippi Gulf Coast be very concerned? Comments from anyone.


Big Steve
Biloxi, MS


End Of Message
08/28/04