Ivan Advisories

[MomH]

chicagopizza

Go out tomorrow and see if you can still get renter's insurance. My daughter got hers today. Its not that expensive and saves a lot of money and heartache later.

[rtd2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html



any thoughts on this and Ivans "turn" ?

[Javlin]

Swampdawg I think you might want to shoot that big eyed Frog he might be some good eat'in.

[tronbunny]

pos 8 is the last data for sept 8...
It looks right.
So the next composite of data for 9th is extrapolated from the model data, I think.

[flashflood1998]

found this website somebody posted of ivan's effect on aruba earlier today...

http://photobucket.com/albums/v417/hurricane_ivan/

i'd imagine tonight could prove to be more intense, at least for a location that gets hurricane type weather every 60 years or so...

[rtd2]

QUOTE"It's WNW, and thankfully we've entered the eclipse period, so no more of these silly OMG it's going NNNNWW SSWWW NWNWNWNWN E posts for a few hours. I'm not judging you, they can just be pretty funny sometimes."



Sad but true....

[chicagopizza]

Luckily, I always carry renters/homeowners insurance. I will double check to make sure I don't need a hurricane rider though. I'm just surprised that the homeowners didn't leave us any supplies to protect their investment in case a hurricane hit.

[SwampDawg]

Swampdawg I think you might want to shoot that big eyed Frog he might be some good eat'in.

MMMMMMM.....Frog Legs....Now that sounds good right about now

[mobilebay]

It is around 28.6 North, and 85.6 West at the end of the run. Almost in identical agreement with the Canadian. However, the 00Z GFDL is still showing landfall near Miami... Who knows...

[Tri-State_1925]

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040909/D84VRR501.html

Don't see it posted around, so I'll go for it...

[yoda]

It is around 28.6 North, and 85.6 West at the end of the run. Almost in identical agreement with the Canadian. However, the 00Z GFDL is still showing landfall near Miami... Who knows...

Yup.. just saw that as well.. It will be VERY interesting to see where the ECMWF places Ivan now... but the last 3 (is that many?) have shown it going for the Carolinas after clipping S FL...

BTW.. the ECMWF comes out in about 90 mins or so..

[KeyLargoDave]

thanks for the model coordinates.

[gpickett00]

what kind of steering possibilities are there with ivan? someone please tell me what is going to influence ivans track. i live in satellite beach florida and have been out of power for 4 days, so i havent been able to follow the message boards. so im still trying to figure out what ivans doing. .

[Sean in New Orleans]

Right now, I'm leaning on this track, as well. It's obviously hard to tell much now, but, stepping back and looking at the big picture, I can easily see a panhandle Florida hit...but, we've still got plenty of time to watch. It'll be interesting to see which track verifies with this system.

[DAVE440]

As of Sept 9 midnight run....

AVN and BAMM also further east now.

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

We got grazed by Frances here and had no power for a few days.
Several homes in the area lost some roof tiles but it could've been
much worse. Hope Ivan doesn't try to finish where Frances left off.

Still a couple days before we know better where he's going...

[yoda]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 27a


Statement as of 2:00 am AST on September 09, 2004



...Extremely dangerous Ivan strengthens into a category 5
hurricane over the south-central Caribbean Sea...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela...and for the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti
from the border of the Dominican Republic westward...including Port
au Prince.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Jamaica
later this morning.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern
coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales. Tropical storm warnings may be required for a portion
of this area later today.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 2 am AST...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 13.7 north...longitude 69.5 west or about 85 miles...135
km...northeast of Aruba in the Dutch Netherland Antilles. This is
also about 570 miles... 915 km...east-southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center
of Ivan should remain well to the north of Aruba and Bonaire during
the next several hours...and then continue on Route toward the area
near Jamaica.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 160 mph...255
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan a rare category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations
in strength are likely.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 925 mb...27.31 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 2 am AST position...13.7 N... 69.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 925 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 am AST.

Forecaster Stewart

[Matthew5]

Damn it sure has looked like it. My Preys go out to Florida. I hope people get out while they have the chance.

[James]

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, this certainly isn't surprising to see after viewing this evening's satellite loops...this is a now a total powerhouse of a hurricane. We all were saying it was a category 5, and it is one!

[DAVE440]

ACK!!!



I just looked at the models and posted.

Didn't get the 2am tho. NHC still shows 11pm advisory. Where did u find the update at 145 am?