Frances Advisories

[Joseph]

Awesome is a good description.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Does anyone know the links to where we can get these close-up views of the system? It would be nice to be able to have personal analysis of the latest of one's leisure. BTW, that is one awesome shot!!

[SouthernWx]

While folks from Savannah southward should be alert....I'm becoming more and more convinced Frances will be a south/ central Florida hurricane, then into the eastern GOM toward some portion of the Gulf Coast (IMO between Morgan City, LA and Pensacola).

Even the 12z GFDL shows the large high pressure moving over and offshore New England by day-5 (THU), further serving to block Frances from recurving. If one closely examines the 126 hour GFDL large scale map....Frances may be as far north as Palm Beach...but would likely turn back west OR even WSW into the Florida coast under reinforcing high pressure to the north (just as the great September 1947 hurricane did into Broward/ Palm Beach counties...passing into the GOM near Naples).

One point....this isn't going to be a small, compact intense hurricane like Andrew or Charley. It is already growing in size, and with six more days over warm shear-free waters, could become huge before landfall.

The tremendous Sept 1947 hurricane made landfall near Fort Lauderdale, and spread 100+ mph winds from Carysfort reef (offshore the upper Keys) to Melbourne....and tropical storm force winds from the north Cuban coast northward to southeast Georgia. When it emerged into the GOM and roared toward New Orleans with 115 mph winds, the giant hurricane passed almost 200 miles SW of Apalachicola, Florida....but sustained winds there still reached 67 mph with gusts topping 80 mph

I'm not saying Frances will become that large in size....but it is a possibility.

[Ixolib]

Who can tell me what that little "blip" is at about 18.5N 51.5W? Higher storm(s)??

[LAwxrgal]

Dang! That is beautiful...

[B-Bear]

They are taking those systems into consideration in their track forecasts. They are expected to be out of the way early enough to allow the ridge to fill in behind them after they depart. Therefore, they are not currently predicted to affect the steering of Frances.

Wow.....guess I better make preliminary plans to deal with a potentially tough storm, then.

I played golf today down in S. Dade, and I swear, some guy who lives just off the 3rd hole had his windows boarded up, and his pool furniture secured. I kid you not.

Did I suggest you board up your windows?

Although it may be a little early for people to boarding up their windows and evacuating, there is good cause for Floridians to start thinking things through. First of all, if this storm maintains its intensity and forecast track, there are going to be MILLIONS of people evacuating. That means traffic jams from hell heading north. Additionally, building supplies necessary for boarding up windows and securing property have already been depleted by Charley, so it makes sense for people to start thinking about whether they can lay their hands on some of those things now--as well as other hurricane supplies. And finally, there are still piles of debris from Charley in areas, and that debris could become shrapnel if a storm like Frances rolls through.

So, although there is no point in panic, it does make sense for people in Florida to start thinking these things through and planning accordingly.

[seahawkjd]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

NRL site is good

[btsgmdad]

In the words of the Sith Lord......


IMPRESSIVE!

[wxman57]

It's much better to be the FIRST place that the NHC 5-day track points to than the LAST place. Odds are, the day 5 forecast is incorrect bu anywhere from 100-200 miles. The question is which way? I think Frances has a good chance of jogging NW by day 4, possibly moving ahead of that front near the east U.S. coast in the wake of Gaston. But it could miss that connection. It could turn NW then be shoved back west again, into FL or GA, or it could miss the front completely and head west thru the FL Straights or south Fl into the Gulf.

Hopefully, the G-IV recon data tomorrow night will give the models something to work with by 12Z Monday.

Until then, I'd certainly check my hurricane supplies if I lived anywhere from Key West to Cape Hatteras.

[msbee]

will move the boat tomorrow
MW, thanks so much for the information
please keep us informed if you see this thing deviating south

[Wthrman13]

The National Hurricane Center mentioned rapid intensification is possible
after the slow intensification process, that actually was moderate to rapid.

Sure they'll mention that rapid intensification is POSSIBLE, but you will never actually see them forecast that it will occur in their actual intensity predictions. What they will do is mention, when they think it is warranted, that such rapid intensification is possible, usually in the forecast discussions, but this is not the same thing as actually forecasting when it will take place. We simply do not have the capability to do that right now. We don't have the observations, the modeling capability (in most cases), or even the theory to fully understand, let alone predict, rapid intensification in hurricanes. It's an unsolved problem in meteorology that we are only beginning to tackle. Perhaps in 5-10 years we will have a better handle on it, but not now.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Probably some thunderstorms sticking up above the cirrus cloud layer there Ixolib!

[Patrick99]

They are taking those systems into consideration in their track forecasts. They are expected to be out of the way early enough to allow the ridge to fill in behind them after they depart. Therefore, they are not currently predicted to affect the steering of Frances.

Wow.....guess I better make preliminary plans to deal with a potentially tough storm, then.

I played golf today down in S. Dade, and I swear, some guy who lives just off the 3rd hole had his windows boarded up, and his pool furniture secured. I kid you not.

Did I suggest you board up your windows?

Although it may be a little early for people to boarding up their windows and evacuating, there is good cause for Floridians to start thinking things through..

No, I'm not saying that - I'm not boarding up ANYTHING until there's at least a hurricane watch. I'm just saying, I thought it strange that this guy had his windows boarded up, when the storm is that far out! To be honest, I think that's going more than a bit overboard. Pun intended!

[furmanbob]

Is Frances following a track along the line of Floyd back in 1999?

[Ixolib]

Probably some thunderstorms sticking up above the cirrus cloud layer there Ixolib!

Tks...

[southerngale]

Does anyone know the links to where we can get these close-up views of the system? It would be nice to be able to have personal analysis of the latest of one's leisure. BTW, that is one awesome shot!!

Here's the link for it:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc04/ATL/06L.FRANCES/ssmi/vis1km/20040828.2045.goes-12.vis2.x.06LFRANCES.115kts-948mb-177N-523W.jpg

[Guest]

If this hurricane hits South Florida, we wouldn't be looking at the kind of devastation of Andrew or Charley. As of now, it should intensify, and the most favorable period for that currently is 2 days before reaching Florida. So assume winds of about 150mph. This storm would put hurricane winds from the keys to Melbourne easily. Massive destruction- probably at least 60 billion in damage. just what could happen.

[slosh]

There are a couple of things that I learned from Charley here in the Tampa Bay area.

1) Track and Intensity forecast are really just guides, with lage error margins. Follow the track closely, things can change at the last moment.

2) Even though you are inland or even on the other side of the state - winds can cause serious distruction.

Because I live several miles from the coast, I have always said that I would stay in my house in a Cat 3 or less storm. After talking to people in Orlando who went through Charley, I have certainly changed my plans.

If Frances does make landfall (I hope it does not), at least Charley is on everyone's mind and people may be more inclined to evacuate. Also since the track change was a surprise, perhaps everyone will be a little more prepared. I know I will.

[Hurrilurker]

Does anyone know the links to where we can get these close-up views of the system?

Thy this:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

You can click anywhere in the Atlantic and get a closeup, plus set zoom, quality, and animated. The visibles are great, I don't like their IR representations as much as the ones linked from the NHC site, although they are larger.

[Ixolib]

While folks from Savannah southward should be alert....I'm becoming more and more convinced Frances will be a south/ central Florida hurricane, then into the eastern GOM toward some portion of the Gulf Coast (IMO between Morgan City, LA and Pensacola).

Even the 12z GFDL shows the large high pressure moving over and offshore New England by day-5 (THU), further serving to block Frances from recurving. If one closely examines the 126 hour GFDL large scale map....Frances may be as far north as Palm Beach...but would likely turn back west OR even WSW into the Florida coast under reinforcing high pressure to the north (just as the great September 1947 hurricane did into Broward/ Palm Beach counties...passing into the GOM near Naples).

One point....this isn't going to be a small, compact intense hurricane like Andrew or Charley. It is already growing in size, and with six more days over warm shear-free waters, could become huge before landfall.

The tremendous Sept 1947 hurricane made landfall near Fort Lauderdale, and spread 100+ mph winds from Carysfort reef (offshore the upper Keys) to Melbourne....and tropical storm force winds from the north Cuban coast northward to southeast Georgia. When it emerged into the GOM and roared toward New Orleans with 115 mph winds, the giant hurricane passed almost 200 miles SW of Apalachicola, Florida....but sustained winds there still reached 67 mph with gusts topping 80 mph

I'm not saying Frances will become that large in size....but it is a possibility.

And my grandparents told me the story of this stom significantly affecting them here on the coast for 2-3 days. Apparently a very slow mover once it reached the northern GOM.