Ivan Advisories

yoda · #1501 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:22 pm

x-y-no wrote:Well, I'm going to sleep now, and if when I wake up I find he's been moving at 300 overnight, then I guess I'll have to eat some crow. :-/

Good night, and get some good rest!

Sanibel · #1502 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:22 pm

Yes, that's the turn. Looks like NHC is starting to look real...

Sean in New Orleans · #1503 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:24 pm

I don't see a turn in motion....It's wobbling along at just north of west. Keep in mind, when these storms get very powerful then tend to wobble.

x-y-no · #1504 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:24 pm

Well, I'm not worrying until I see him cross Jamaica or north of Jamaica.

Still think this is a GOM storm.

yoda · #1505 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:25 pm

We will see where Ivan is when we come back out of the eclipse. This will tell us if it is moving more north as a turn, or if it was just a wobble.

yoda · #1506 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:27 pm

And at 150 hours.. it SE of the Carolina Coast..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml

mobilebay · #1507 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:28 pm

The GFs is much further west with this run but is still to slow. The new GFDL, and BAMM, will more than likely slide alot further west to agree more with the new Canadian. We may have a trend starting here. Will be interesting to see the rest of the model runs. IMO.

yoda · #1508 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:28 pm

It won't go too far West. Probably about 50-100 miles West... see the thread about the 00z GFS.

mobilebay · #1509 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:31 pm

yoda wrote:It won't go too far West. Probably about 50-100 miles West... see the thread about the 00z GFS.

I think the GFDL will slide at least as for West as the GFS did. Maybe not the BAMM, but the GFDL will. The most interesting runs will be the UKMET, and the NOGAPS.

yoda · #1510 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:32 pm

mobilebay wrote:
yoda wrote:It won't go too far West. Probably about 50-100 miles West... see the thread about the 00z GFS.

I think the GFDL will slide at least as for West as the GFS did. Maybe not the BAMM, but the GFDL will. The most interesting runs will be the UKMET, and the NOGAPS.

Agreed. Also, add ECMWF to the mix as well. Its 12z run had it over S FL.. then into the Carolinas.

#1511 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:33 pm

air360 wrote:yes if you look at that link and slow it down so it goes real slow you can see the WNW movement
and i feel that very soon it wil change to more NW
but i could easily be wrong:)

Silly me, but you are right. I put a ruler on my puter screen just to make sure. And it is definitly moving little by little NW. I am sure there is an easier way to do this, but since I am not a forecaster, well .....

LaBreeze · #1512 Postby **LaBreeze** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:33 pm

Could someone explain to me why the slight push west?

mobilebay · #1513 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:34 pm

yoda wrote:
mobilebay wrote:
yoda wrote:It won't go too far West. Probably about 50-100 miles West... see the thread about the 00z GFS.

I think the GFDL will slide at least as for West as the GFS did. Maybe not the BAMM, but the GFDL will. The most interesting runs will be the UKMET, and the NOGAPS.

Agreed. Also, add ECMWF to the mix as well. Its 12z run had it over S FL.. then into the Carolinas.

The EURO has been very consistent. I think the GFDL will be along at least 84W though with the new run. We shall see.

yoda · #1514 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:35 pm

mobilebay wrote:
yoda wrote:
mobilebay wrote:
yoda wrote:It won't go too far West. Probably about 50-100 miles West... see the thread about the 00z GFS.

I think the GFDL will slide at least as for West as the GFS did. Maybe not the BAMM, but the GFDL will. The most interesting runs will be the UKMET, and the NOGAPS.

Agreed. Also, add ECMWF to the mix as well. Its 12z run had it over S FL.. then into the Carolinas.

The EURO has been very consistent. I think the GFDL will be along at least 84W though with the new run. We shall see.

Again agreed. Do you know at what times the new NOGAPS and UKMET come out?

mobilebay · #1515 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:36 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Could someone explain to me why the slight push west?

The GFS is INITIAL conditions. Everything else on that model run from, what I could see was exactly the same as the 18Z run. The Trough's position, the high position, Strength ect.

yoda · #1516 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:38 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml

Unless its gonna come back... the GFS says OTS (Out To Sea)

LakeToho · #1517 Postby **LakeToho** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:38 pm

NOGAPS OOZ is comming out as we speak. Seems to be say same track as previous runs.. UKMET is also similar to previous run.

mobilebay · #1518 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:40 pm

yoda wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp0_216.shtml

Unless its gonna come back... the GFS says OTS (Out To Sea)

The GFS is on crack and has been for a long time now. That model is way to slow, and to for North.

yoda · #1519 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:41 pm

mobilebay wrote:
yoda wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp0_216.shtml

Unless its gonna come back... the GFS says OTS (Out To Sea)

The GFS is on crack and has been for a long time now. That model is way to slow, and to for North.

I know.... but it is just fascinating why it keeps doing this.. even though you are right, the GFS is full of it and on crack.

yoda · #1520 Postby **yoda** » Wed Sep 08, 2004 11:42 pm

LakeToho wrote:NOGAPS OOZ is comming out as we speak. Seems to be say same track as previous runs.. UKMET is also similar to previous run.

Ok thanks... could you give me a link to either of them? If you could, that would be great! Thanks!

Ivan Advisories

BAMM and GFDL will slide more West

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