Ivan Advisories

[air360]

yes if you look at that link and slow it down so it goes real slow you can see the WNW movement
and i feel that very soon it wil change to more NW
but i could easily be wrong:)

[x-y-no]

Well, it passes JUST NORTH of Jamica here..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

Yeah ... I think that was implied by having passed Jamaica on the east and then crossing Cuba emerging at about 79 west, no?

[yoda]

Well, it passes JUST NORTH of Jamica here..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

Yeah ... I think that was implied by having passed Jamaica on the east and then crossing Cuba emerging at about 79 west, no?

Sorry, was just making sure that was what you meant.

[x-y-no]

So far, it is considerably further west than it's previous runs....now just north of central Cuba at 84 hours as opposed to the eastern tip at 18Z.

Yes, that's true. Still think it's too northerly too fast, though.

If he does go across Jamaica or even further north, then obviously I'm wrong. I'll also be a heck of a lot more nervous about a strike in my area than I am at the moment.

[logybogy]

You can see a visible northern trend in the last few frames. It's definitely not going due west anymore.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stratosphere747]

Derecho...Believe it or not...I think you know quite about about tropical weather and could add alot..Obviously 95% of us here are trying to learn by what people like yourself, Purdue, D Ortt , M Watkins etc...are explaining to us...And I know it may be very frustrating to you when some of the posts seem outlandish to you even if it is by another person with your knowledge....But educate us in a positive way...

..What are your thoughts on the future track of Ivan...Thx in advance...

[yoda]

Well, between 84 and 90 hrs.. The GFS is now turning IVAN NORTH.. or maybe NW still... cause its over NC CUBA...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

[x-y-no]

No prob, yoda. As I've remarked before, typing text at each other leaves something to be desired in terms of effective communication. I'm too lazy to type in all the details, so I may not get my message across as well as I think I am.

[recmod]

http://www.cdera.org/cunews/publish/article_468.shtml

This link has a news article with some photos of the devastation on Grenada

--Lou

[c5Camille]

ummmm.... no. it looks pretty wwwwnw to me...

[PurdueWx80]

It's WNW, and thankfully we've entered the eclipse period, so no more of these silly OMG it's going NNNNWW SSWWW NWNWNWNWN E posts for a few hours. I'm not judging you, they can just be pretty funny sometimes.

[x-y-no]

Looking like it's going to keep him offshore, but way too close for comfort as far as I'm concerned.

Good thing I don't believe it.

[debbiet]

I can certainly understand the anxiety and near panic...if I were in FL I would be doing the same thing...but maybe it will help to remember that we ALL thought that Frances was going to hit as a Cat 4 too...nothing predicted her rather dramatic weakening (that I was aware of) just a day or so before landfall...so let's all just hope and pray that a similar scenario occurs with Ivan. In fact...same thing happened with Isabel last year...from a Cat 5 to Cat 4 then a Cat 2 at landfall...so maybe it won't be the monster we THINK it will be if and when it does make landfall.

[x-y-no]

120 ... still offshore to the east but damn close

[gatorbabe79]

WMD= Weathermen with Much Disagreement!!

[yoda]

Looking like it's going to keep him offshore, but way too close for comfort as far as I'm concerned.

Good thing I don't believe it.

Me too... because look at the 132 hour map...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

[Stormcenter]

You can see a visible northern trend in the last few frames. It's definitely not going due west anymore.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Well it should be going north of due west based on the NHC 11pm advisory but is still looks primarily westward to me. IMO
Hey don't worry maybe it will get some dry air intrusion like Frances
did before making landfall. I guess that's wishfall thinking on my part huh?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[btsgmdad]

Right now the current motion would put it just S of Jamaica.

[c5Camille]

actually it's more like 282 degrees... a little
west of WNW... yeah... NHC says 290...
my protractor and straitedge says 282

[x-y-no]

Well, I'm going to sleep now, and if when I wake up I find he's been moving at 300 overnight, then I guess I'll have to eat some crow. :-/