Ivan Advisories

[Huckster]

CMC is not a very reliable model..

Since when??

Since it doesn't show it hitting Florida

[montrealboy]

144 hrs



168 hrs

[flyingphish]

Yes..I agree

[lencast]

Could anybody explain to me how a storm coming in so low can turn north west so radically in the next 48h? I see the models predicting it, but I can't understand where they find the data to support a big nudge needed to turn such a huge storm.

[Derecho]

Well this one would pretty much be a direct hit on me. Is this one any more accurate than the models that the NHC uses? I'm still learning here. . .

No, on the whole, it's less accurate than the models you see mentioned in NHC discussions.

It's also currently an extreme west "outlier." In fact, it's very close to being as much of an outlier to the model consensus to the west as everyone's favorite whipping boy, the GFS, is to to the east.

Outlier models are rarely correct.

[BUD]

In the 11pm discussion fron the NHS it said IVAN could maybe turn northwestward or northward how far up are they talking about and where??

[Derecho]

Since it doesn't show it hitting Florida

Slight problem with that is that it DOES hit Florida, but not like I expect accuracy to suddenly start showing up in S2K posts.

[x-y-no]

That, my friend, is the multi-billion dollar question. :-/

[PurdueWx80]

Since it doesn't show it hitting Florida

Slight problem with that is that it DOES hit Florida, but not like I expect accuracy to suddenly start showing up in S2K posts.

I don't seem to remember you being accurate about a supposed myth that tropical systems don't form below 5 degrees N because of a lack of Coriolis. Do you recall seeing my follow-up post with a link from NOAA??? If not, I'll be glad to find it again. Hypocrite.

[Stormcenter]

In the 11pm discussion fron the NHS it said IVAN could maybe turn northwestward or northward how far up are they talking about and where??

Well not anytime soon based on latest satellite loop.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[x-y-no]

It heads him past Jamaica to the east then across Cuba at about 79W.

I think a course just south of Jamaica is far more credible.

[King6]

I Live in a doublewide mobilehome here in Coconut Creek,so far I lost half my carport,a leaky roof,and pool full of debris.If Ivan hits here,It would shred my lot to pieces.

[Stormcenter]

Well this one would pretty much be a direct hit on me. Is this one any more accurate than the models that the NHC uses? I'm still learning here. . .

No, on the whole, it's less accurate than the models you see mentioned in NHC discussions.

It's also currently an extreme west "outlier." In fact, it's very close to being as much of an outlier to the model consensus to the west as everyone's favorite whipping boy, the GFS, is to to the east.

Outlier models are rarely correct.

Derecho why is it you only show up on this board to critique everyones post that doesn't agree with your thinking. If you're such a knowlegable forecaster then where do you think Ivan will make landfall in the US?

[yoda]

Well, it passes JUST NORTH of Jamica here..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[PurdueWx80]

So far, it is considerably further west than it's previous runs....now just north of central Cuba at 84 hours as opposed to the eastern tip at 18Z.

[LakeToho]

Think we are going to see the turn soon ... Seems to be getting more northerly component to it albeit by way of stair stepping..

[Sean in New Orleans]

This seems like the most likely scenario, IMO....

[Stormcenter]

We are royally screwed if Ivan comes up this way.This is another Andrew but bigger I hope by any miracle that it misses,I hope GOD is watching out for us now.PLEASE NOT FLORIDA

Anyone is "royally screwed" if the Ivan we are seeing "right now" makes landfall at their location. Right now it will not take "a miracle" to miss Florida.

[Huckster]

Since it doesn't show it hitting Florida

Slight problem with that is that it DOES hit Florida, but not like I expect accuracy to suddenly start showing up in S2K posts.

Well, for clarification (not that you care), I was only basing that off the 120 hr map, which is all I had seen at the time. You just don't seem capable of not being rude, but not like I expect anything else to suddenly start showing up in Derecho posts. You've got a consistent track record, nearly 100% predictable.

[boca]

I have car damage from Frances