Frances Advisories

Anonymous · #1401 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:49 pm

Stadium eyewall setting up, which is indicative of cat. 4 or even cat. 5 classification.

Matthew5 · #1402 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:49 pm

That starting to look like Isabel :eek:

#1403 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:50 pm

I really didn't mean to upset anyone by talking a little football. I just saw the Saints helmets as I was sitting here eating my wings and watching some football. I noticed quite a few Saints helmets. Like Pebbles said, Life is more than the tropics and we've still got lots of time before we know where Frances is going. It's good to see a little laugh on these boards.

And when I woke up, I checked nfl.com and The Saints still won, so I didn't dream it. :lol:

snowflake · #1404 Postby **snowflake** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:50 pm

The meteoroligist here says that once they get to 30N we do not have to worry about them.

#1405 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:51 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:All accumulate they do mean something.

You have a very good point..But if I watched every frame I'd be more loony then I am already when the storms finally do their thing :double:

cape_escape · #1406 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:51 pm

I have to admit..its one heck of a sight...I only hope it stays away from land! I know that's not likely, but it never hurts to hope!

#1407 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:52 pm

It's definitely a big storm! You are right Lil.... a monster indeed.

#1408 Postby **seahawkjd** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:52 pm

Wow....

That looks too much like Issabell did last year

Skywatch_NC · #1409 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:52 pm

Moved to Raleigh in late March to an apt. and now a townhouse in late June.
Lived in Roanoke Rapids, NC (near the I-95 corridor) NC/VA border for 15 years.

Eric

Matthew5 · #1410 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:54 pm

This is really if you went to put it that way the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. Because of Hurricane 1# in the south Atlantic plus the January 19th tropical storm. In the 9th tropical cyclone of the season. That really doe's look like Isabel wow wow wow! The recon will likely find winds of 140 or more in that.

cape_escape · #1411 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:55 pm

Skywatch_NC wrote:Moved to Raleigh in late March to an apt. and now a townhouse in late June.
Lived in Roanoke Rapids, NC (near the I-95 corridor) NC/VA border for 15 years.

Eric

Tahts a beautifu area!

#1412 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:56 pm

Shameless bump...really really hoping someone can touch on classification/ mesovortices question. Or any info reguarding Mesovortices.

Sorry about the bump but didn't want this to be shoved onto page 2.

B-Bear · #1413 Postby **B-Bear** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:57 pm

Matthew5 wrote:This is really if you went to put it that way the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. Because of Hurricane 1# in the south Atlantic plus the January 13th tropical storm. In the 9th tropical cyclone of the season. That really doe's look like Isabel wow wow wow! The recon will likely find winds of 140 or more in that.

Yeah, so much for the 10% probability she will hit cat 5. Not saying there are yet any guarantees, but it sure as hell looks a lot higher than 10% probability to me.

cape_escape · #1414 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:58 pm

She's a definate "Frankenstorm"

SouthernWx · #1415 Postby **SouthernWx** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:59 pm

snowflake wrote:Do you think that Frances will weaken before making a landfall? That is if she does make a landfall.

In all honesty, if Frances indeed approaches southern Florida (and I believe it will), the hurricane will likely intensify as it passes over the Gulf Stream just offshore.
I'm being conservative in forecasting 140-145 mph at landfall....with the heat content between SE Florida and the Bahamas, it could very well be 150 mph or higher (in the same intensity range as Floyd, Andrew, or the severe 1926 and 1928 hurricanes).

For those who are in the projected path....I have relatives in harms way also. Several first cousins live in Sarasota and Venice...and just as with hurricane Charley, I'm again very concerned about them

Skywatch_NC · #1416 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:59 pm

Yes, there's even a town called Gaston, NC and a resort area Lake Gaston in parts of NC and VA! :wink:

Eric

#1417 Postby **seahawkjd** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:00 pm

btw, I seem to be in a race with crazycajuncane for posts lol. I just noticed that our numbers have stayed identical for the past few hours

Steve H. · #1418 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:00 pm

Hopefully she'll peak and be on a down slope if (when) She Hits. However, when storms get under a ridge they tend to hold intensity or intensify. When they run out of ridge and feel trough (bagginess) they tend to weaken. Let's hope! Signed "getting concerned in Melbourne, FL."

lilbump3000 · #1419 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:00 pm

Also you have to add if it takes that track and once it gets back into the eastern gulf it will be in the warmest waters there is in the entire atlantic basin so this could be a dangerous storm at landfall.

Weatherboy1 · #1420 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:01 pm

At one point a couple days ago, Frances was very small and compact. Her CDO was relatively small and her overall coverage area was as well. That raised the possibility that even if she got stronger, she would end up like Charley -- powerful, but compact enough that a relatively small area of land would end up being impacted by her.

Unfortunately, she's really expanding now. If this trend continues, an eventual landfall COULD (not saying it will, but could) damage a much broader area of land. Let's just hope she doesn't balloon up to Floyd size. At one point, his cloud envelope was the size of FL from N to S.

Frances Advisories

expanding in coverage area as well

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