Frances Advisories

[Brent]

on Days 4 and 5? That's what some models say!


96-hour position on the left, 120-hour on the right

BAMD 15.9N 54.0W 15.1N 58.1W
BAMM 15.9N 52.0W 15.7N 55.4W
A98E 12.7N 59.5W 12.8N 64.4W
LBAR 16.4N 55.1W 16.2N 58.2W

[c5Camille]

[cycloneye]

Well caneman I hope not but as time goes by it looks more and more a threat to the islands.

[cajungal]

I know it is early, but just like to hear opinions. I think it will be a fish.

[Guest]

I think its going to hit the East Coast.

[c5Camille]

[mascpa]

Note the turn back to the west, and maybe even wsw around days 4 and 5. Not good.

[Matthew5]

First of all this storm is moving around 15 to 18 mph to the west. It has been on a track to the west or slightly north of west for the last 15 degrees. Since 25 west. It has moved very little north since then. The Gfs has shifted left every run since the 00z in now shows it skiming the northern leewards. What else is wrong with the gfs is it is moving at around 18 mph this thing is not going to slow down as much as the Gfs says. I say by tomarrow afternoon it will be around 45 maybe 46 west. This could just as easly fellow the southern hurricane models with this.

So this is my thinking it should not get pass 12 north intill 11pm tonight. Then should not pass 15 north intill nearing 60 west. I expect a cat1 hurricane with in the next 48 to 60 hours.

[cinlfla]

The is just my opinion but I think its going to go into the Gulf.
Cindy

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2004


...Tropical Depression Six becomes Tropical Storm Frances...no
immediate threat to land...

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Frances was
located near latitude 11.6 north...longitude 40.5 west or about
1420 miles...2285 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Frances is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph... 65
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...11.6 N... 40.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

[ChaserUK]

I have gone for East Coast. Mostly based on historical data.

[Guest]

And now, tropical storm Frances is officially official.

[Brent]

Track still implies that it will go well north of the islands.

[vbhoutex]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 252028
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
2100Z WED AUG 25 2004

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 40.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 40.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.0N 42.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 46.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.9N 48.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 40.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[James]

I think it will approach the East Coast.

[James]

** WTNT41 KNHC 252034 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2004

AFTER LOOKING RAGGED THIS MORNING...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A BAND WRAPPED AROUND THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
FRANCES WITH 35 KT WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15. THE CYCLONE REMAINS SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID/
UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM
48-96 HR...AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THIS VERIFIES...
IT WOULD ALLOW FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HR...AND THEN
POSSIBLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HR AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO
THE NORTH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE GFS TRACK REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO AND IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND WEST OF ALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS.

CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 72-96 HR...WITH THE ONLY SEEMING NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING THE
DRY AIR SURROUNDING FRANCES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR OR SO
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND TRENDS...THEN CALL
FOR FASTER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH.
AFTER 72-96 HR...IF THE CYCLONE TRACKS AS FAR NORTH AS
FORECAST...IT MAY ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO LIE EAST- WEST ALONG 18-19N. THAT
WOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. A
CONTINUING ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE IF THE CYCLONE STAYS SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW GREATER STRENGTHENING THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 11.6N 40.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 12.0N 42.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 13.0N 45.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 13.9N 46.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 14.9N 48.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 52.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 55.5W 80 KT


$$

[Johnny]

First guess is an East Coaster...if not then it will be fish. I don't see this getting into the Gulf. Just my worthless two cents.

[c5Camille]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

[alicia-w]

But your track is from 11am when it was still a TD. talk all afternoon has been how the models are changing. imagine that.

[mascpa]

on Days 4 and 5? That's what some models say!


96-hour position on the left, 120-hour on the right

BAMD 15.9N 54.0W 15.1N 58.1W
BAMM 15.9N 52.0W 15.7N 55.4W
A98E 12.7N 59.5W 12.8N 64.4W
LBAR 16.4N 55.1W 16.2N 58.2W

even when you compare the 72 hour to the 96 hour, some models have turned it slightly south of due west. Its that movement that reminds me of Andrew, granted Andrew was at around 25N when he started his trek west towards SE Florida.