Ivan Advisories

[BReb]

It's the last frame- 00:45 that shows northward movement, none before. Although the 1:15 will be coming out shortly- see where that takes us.

[Derecho]

seems like all the storms this season arent playing by the rules

Actually the storms this season have been MORE predictable than usual, and have been CLOSER to the model consensus than usual.

It's amusing though, each storm or each year people somehow convince themselves the storms are unusually badly-behaved..the psychological reasons for which, I'm not sure.

Thing is people really seem to WANT the storms to act crazily; people were trying to convince themselves and others during Frances that Frances was wildly deviating from the models/NHC track all the time, when in fact it wasn't.

[TLHR]

Is it just me or has the GFDL really been struggling as of lately?

<RICKY>

I was going to say the same thing. The GDFL had a great track record last year.

Seems like this is UKMET's year.

[shimmer]

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CI MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS
2 30 KTS 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

[shimmer]

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CI MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS
2 30 KTS 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

[BReb]

Okay, the 1:15 frame just came out, and it looks more or less west again.

[PurdueWx80]

Talk about symmetric...that's a freakin' perfect circle!!!!

[Guest]

Ivan is definitly heading my way. ..I have a gut feeling.

[PurdueWx80]

Yes it does...AND the storm could not be more symmetrical. The eye has also cleared out again. I can guarantee the recon will find pressures in the 920's at 2.

[marc21688]

Where is your way?

[Innotech]

theyre seeing a future weakness in that ridge and possibly that passage into Florida that Frances left conveniently behind for her big brother.

[marc21688]

Where is your way?

[ColinD]

:Bcool: Uuhhhhhhhh....... from a totally stupid blonde newbie seeking an education, could someone please explain exactly what a "T number" is and what is the significance of the number? Thanks much!

This guy, Dvorak, in the 1970s compared the measured intensity of tropical systems with their satellite pictures and derived rules for estimating the intensity from the satellite pics. The rules give a T number. The higher the T number, the more powerful the storm. Useful to get an idea of how powerful a storm is when you don't have a reconnaisance plane out there.

[shimmer]

Now I think we can safely say it is exploding ... this could be closing in on peak intensity right some time tonight.

[ColinD]

Talk about symmetric...that's a freakin' perfect circle!!!!

Amazing.

[B-Bear]

Just what they needed.

URGENT … URGENT … URGENT … URGENT … URGENT

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE


SECURITY CHALLENGES IN GRENADA
Non-essential personnel should re-consider travel at this time

Barbados, Sep 08, 2004: 6:30 pm (CDERA) – The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) has received reports of a serious security situation in Grenada. In response, members of the Regional Security System were deployed and are now on the ground to assist the authorities in maintaining law and order. A second contingent is on its way.

CDERA has also been receiving numerous requests as well as information that many institutions and agencies including commercial interests and media are planning flights into Grenada.

CDERA wishes to advise that only essential personnel can be guaranteed safety of passage at this time and strongly urge other non-essential parties to reconsider travel arrangements to the country until it can be verified that the security situation has been stabilised.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

troll land....

[dhweather]

I'd vote for just north of west, 275 or so.

[flyingphish]

Ahh..some sanity here. Thanks for the good work Air !!

[dhweather]

Yes it does...AND the storm could not be more symmetrical. The eye has also cleared out again. I can guarantee the recon will find pressures in the 920's at 2.

I really can't argue with this - the storm is as close to perfect as a hurricane can be right now.