USAwx1 wrote:The GFS therafter is having some problems figuring out how much of an interaction there is between ivan and the trough coming across the county and into the NW atlantic toward the beginning of the week. In other words whether the trough catches Ivan and causes him to re-curve or there is little interaction between the two at all. But overall i dont buy the GFS solutions of the past few runs.
Furthermore, b/c most of the tropical models are run off the GFS initial conditions, we can expect further problems WRT the track which will be compounded by the fact that Ivan remains at a low latitude.
Which is why, I for the life of me cannot figure out why such a sharp turn ... when consistently Ivan has continued SOUTH of the guidance ... even the ECMWF has now depicted an Eastern FL sideswipe and barreling headlong into Lower South Carolina by Day 7 for TWO runs now, but again ... I'm NOT ready to buy into this solution ... TWO more runs from the EC like this will definitely have me reconsidering my stance ...
What's critical is to continue watching short-term trends ... by 8 am tomorrow, the 00z tropical model guidance indicates that Ivan will be at LEAST 14.5ºN OR HIGHER AT 71ºW ... When I believe it will be more in the lines of 14.0ºN at 71ºW ... or an error of 30 statute miles SOUTH of the southernmost guidance plot ... and even more so, a drastically different end result 144 hours away ...
SF
