Charley Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

as an fyi, we now have a new bonnie forecast at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl022004forecast.html

[wxcsi]

There is NO reason to jump the Gun JUST yet....

WXCSI I have NO idea if the euro is right... It is one run and not 4 or 5 .... My intention was to point out that the euro has a alternate scenario... one which I mentioned on one of Monday posts.

BTW I dont know who MT is either.... You signed your Posts M so the MT was a Typo.... :Pick:

Thx!

I am not sure what RP or SS could have done differently. You assert they made an error by not having the track west of 82.5, but I think their forecast continuity was the best course of action. As you know, the particular potential approach to the W coast of FL will mean any slight deviation will lead to a tremendous shift in the area most severely impacted. I would guess that you would probably not have done much differently if you were on duty at NHC.

The 3-4 SD trough heading and amplifying into the US should fairly easily pick the storm up. Perhaps if Charley becomes a super cane, I would be less confident, but "as you know" forecasting intensification of tropical cyclones is not very skillful.

Wrt the EC. I take a look at its 48hr position and have a hard time believing the storm will be there. I think the model is wrong at day 2. Latest Sat looks to me indicates that a more NW movement should commence soon.

However, even if the storm were not to get caught by the highly unusual early Aug trough, I think the storm would have some issues with shear thereafter.

Concerning MT? I have no idea what you are talking about. I was just a guest here and saw the post by a moderator that guests should register, so I did. If I knew asking questions would result in a moderator requesting that we move on, I would have not asked the questions in the first place.

Nonetheless, thanks for your responses.

M

[OtherHD]

BTW I dont know who MT is either.... You signed your Posts M so the MT was a Typo....

omg...roflmao

[flyingphish]

Once Charley crosses W. Cuba ...Fl straits in mid August.."The drain in the Gulf bath tub"... Very warm.. Let's see.

[Bane]

Shear could be a factor.

[Stormsfury]

Once Charley crosses W. Cuba ...Fl straits in mid August.."The drain in the Gulf bath tub"... Very warm.. Let's see.

Weak Cat 3 is a paradoxal statement ... I don't consider 115 mph sustained winds, weak ... better terms are low end Cat 3, solid Cat 3, borderline Cat 4...

[chris_fit]

Are there any reports from Jamaica yet? Winds? Rain? etc??

~Chris

[bahamaswx]

How about minimal Cat 3?

[Valkhorn]

How about 'minimal' Cat 3?

[mf_dolphin]

I guess it's a possibility but a great deal depends on where it crosses Cuba and how long it stays over water before heading on shore.

[Derecho]

Here are a couple of reason why I think NHC is not jumping on a more westward track, YET.

1. They dont want to seem like model worshipers. By catering to the models ever whim they look like whimps.

Umm, it's the overwhelming majority of the models with the current NHC track and something close to it, and only 3 into the Central/Western GOM as outliers.

A model worshipper wouldn't go with 3 models instead of 10+.

A blind worshipper of the ECMWF would, though.





.[/quote]

[flyingphish]

Point taken..How about an intense Cat 2 ? Thanks.

[chris_fit]

Well Said

[bahamaswx]

Nah. Cat 2's generally aren't 'intense'.

[rtd2]

what if it does what I've said all morning and dosent (core) touch land and enters the GOMEX between the tip of cuba and the yucatan? 1/3 rd already accomplished! he missed jamaica and will miss the isle of youth! claer shot to GOMEX with min. land interaction!= stronger storm.... its worst enemy now and earlier is is fast fwd mvt.

[Brent]

Hurricane Charley Advisory Number 11

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004

...Charley heading for the Cayman Islands...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. This watch will probably be
changed to a Hurricane Warning early Thursday.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended
northward along the west coast of Florida to Anna Maria Island.
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Dry
Tortugas to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay...and from Flamingo
northward to Anna Maria Island. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for a
portion of the Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida
early Thursday.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 17.8 north...longitude 78.7 west or about 195 miles
...310 km...east-southeast of Grand Cayman.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr.
On this track...the center of the hurricane will be passing near or
over the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Rain bands with tropical storm
force winds in squalls will continue to affect much of Jamaica
during the next several hours. These conditions will begin to
spread over the Cayman Islands early Thursday.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Charley has not
strengthen and maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. However...conditions appear to be
favorable for intensification.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Minimum central pressure just reported by a reconnaissance plane was
993 mb...29.32 inches.

Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica tonight...and the
Cayman Islands tonight and Thursday morning.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...17.8 N... 78.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Charley Advisory Number 11


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004


...Charley heading for the Cayman Islands...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. This watch will probably be
changed to a Hurricane Warning early Thursday.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended
northward along the west coast of Florida to Anna Maria Island.
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Dry
Tortugas to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay...and from Flamingo
northward to Anna Maria Island. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for a
portion of the Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida
early Thursday.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 17.8 north...longitude 78.7 west or about 195 miles
...310 km...east-southeast of Grand Cayman.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr.
On this track...the center of the hurricane will be passing near or
over the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Rain bands with tropical storm
force winds in squalls will continue to affect much of Jamaica
during the next several hours. These conditions will begin to
spread over the Cayman Islands early Thursday.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Charley has not
strengthen and maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. However...conditions appear to be
favorable for intensification.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Minimum central pressure just reported by a reconnaissance plane was
993 mb...29.32 inches.
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica tonight...and the
Cayman Islands tonight and Thursday morning.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...17.8 N... 78.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am
EDT.

Forecaster Avila


To ANNA MARIA ISLAND the hurricane watch has been extended.No change in the winds 75 mph.

[Dan]

The extention of Hurricane Watches should tell you that the NHC is changing the forecast track some...

[Brent]

The extention of Hurricane Watches should tell you that the NHC is changing the forecast track some...

No. They extended it northward since it's longer until they feel the affects. The projected path at 11pm is the same as at 5pm.

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004



data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Charley has changed
little during the past few hours. The minimum pressure has been
oscillating around 992 and 993 mb. Flight-level peak wind was 76
knots with a small closed eyewall of 8 N mi. Initial intensity
remains at 65 knots. Since the outflow has improved...the shear is
low...and the fact that the hurricane is forecast to move over an
area of high oceanic heat content...intensification is
forecast...in agreement with SHIPS models. The GFDL is more
aggressive and makes Charley a 106-knot hurricane as it crosses
western Cuba.
There has been no significant change in the track. The hurricane is
moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 15 knots. A
gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected to begin soon
as a large mid to upper level trough becomes established in the
Gulf of Mexico. This is consistent with the consensus of the global
models and very close to the GFDL.
Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/0300z 17.8n 78.7w 65 kt
12hr VT 12/1200z 19.6n 80.9w 75 kt
24hr VT 13/0000z 22.5n 82.3w 85 kt...nearing Cuba
36hr VT 13/1200z 25.5n 82.5w 90 kt...over water
48hr VT 14/0000z 29.5n 81.5w 50 kt...inland
72hr VT 15/0000z 38.0n 77.5w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 16/0000z 46.5n 68.0w 35 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 17/0000z 51.5n 53.0w 25 kt...extratropical