Frances Advisories

[HurricaneJim]

Thanks Johnathan,

I've got a pretty extensive preparedness thread going over at UKweatherworld/tropical weather forums.

Just taught a workshop on it thursday as well.

Growing up between S. Florida and the Maine coast as a kid pretty much put me in the great outdoors frame of mind. And as we know, the great outdoors loves to throw curve balls.

Jim

PS; love your graphic of the C-130.

[James]

Frances has not strengthened and currently shows few signs of doing so, although it looks like some deep convection may be trying to develop around the eye. The latest forecast track takes it into the Bahamas as a CAT 4 hurricane.

[TS Zack]

LABreeze they better atleast tell eveyone to get there plans and kit ready. This system is looking more and more likely it will continue West to the Gulf. Most if not all the models have shifted to that track.

[Benlanka]

During the night AFWA and SAB had lowered the T-numbers for Frances by 0.5 but TAFB has continued to issue T5.5 this morning. Looks like the eyewall replacement cycle is (almost) over.

08-27-2004 2331z KGWC T5/T5
08-27-2004 2345z SAB T5/T5.5
08-27-2004 2345z TAFB T5.5/T5.5

08-28-2004 0615z SAB T5/T5.5
08-28-2004 0615z SAB T5/T5.5
08-28-2004 0615z KGWC T5/T5

08-28-2004 0645z TAFB T5.5/T5.5

Source: Dvorak Hurricane intensities.

[James]

The eye does look better than it did a few hours ago. It is more distinct, and looks like it is becoming more circular. Also note that deep convection is flaring up around the southern eyewall.

[Aquawind]

Looks like the Convection has gotten deeper in the last couple hours..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Aquawind]

More from the 3:20 am Tampa NWS


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0408280721


.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...TD#7 BEGINS TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
STATES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LONG WAVE INCORPORATES TD#7 AND
QUICKLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OUTER BANKS IN 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THE STRONGEST
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS ON THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...ESTABLISHING A 590H5
CENTER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY.

[ericinmia]

More from the 3:20 am Tampa NWS


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0408280721


.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRI)...TD#7 BEGINS TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
STATES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LONG WAVE INCORPORATES TD#7 AND
QUICKLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE OUTER BANKS IN 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THE STRONGEST
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS ON THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
WEAK BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...ESTABLISHING A 590H5
CENTER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY.

THAT IS HORRIBLE NEWS lol
I suppose its starting to become apparent that this Ridge is going to be there, and quite the pressence too.
-Eric

[Aquawind]

I imagine that is why the GFS is taking it so far south..over Cuba..Maybe the ridge will push it into the islands and keep it from blowing up into a major for Florida..wishful thinking.. no bad wishes for the Islanders..A weaker storm is better for all..Frances has already proven Major status with eyewall replacement and reorganizing at the moment..Unfortunately any island that takes a dent out of Frances will prolly take a nasty dent itself..

[WXBUFFJIM]

I definitely agree and by later today, further strengthening is a possibility.

Jim

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's holding it's own. It'll be interesting to see what happens later today into tonight as we could see some further strengthening. While we didn't see many signs of that last night into early this AM, I still think a category 4 intensity is likely in the next 24 hours and beyond. I'm betting given the early morning appearance on satellite, we'll likely see the beginnings of that huge buzzsaw appearance to the hurricane with perhaps a more vivid eye later on today into tonight.

Jim

[TampaFl]

Ineresting. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

FXUS62 KEYW 280736
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
336 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND REEFS THIS MORNING ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID-80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-70S. LIGHT MAINLY
EAST BREEZES ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE WINDS ARE MORE VARIABLE AND GUSTY. KEY WEST
DOPPLER RADAR CURRENTLY DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5KT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP-LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH A NARROW
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA
KEYS...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS PROVIDING
VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
KEYS. THE KEY WEST FRIDAY EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED WINDS OF 10 KNOTS
OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP PAST 30000FT AGL...AND THE
SFC-10000FT LAYER-MEAN WIND VECTOR WAS 060/06KT. THE SOUNDING ALSO
REVEALED A TYPICALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLY STRATIFIED ATMOSPHERE...
ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR WAS NOTED ABOVE 7000FT...AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 13F AND 21F AT 700MB AND 500MB...
RESPECTIVELY.

.FORECASTS...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE ANALYZED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL REDEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...EAST OF SLOWLY-MOVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN. THIS WILL HAPPEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF FAST-MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING EAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...THE KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS
WILL REMAIN BENEATH A DEEP LAYER OF WEAK RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS. IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WE CAN EXPECT SUBSYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING TO MODULATE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND EVOLUTION...PRIMARILY THROUGH THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING CIRCULATIONS
SUCH AS ISLAND AND OCEAN CUMULUS LINES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXHIBIT SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT...AND MAY DUMP VERY HEAVY
RAIN ON SOME ISLAND COMMUNITIES...WHERE OTHERS SEE NO RAIN AT ALL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BY EARLY TUESDAY...THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SHOULD ALLOW A MORE ORGANIZED WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...RESULTING IN
SOUTHEAST OR EAST BREEZES SETTING IN ACROSS LOCAL ISLAND COMMUNITIES
AND ADJACENT WATERS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HURRICANE FRANCES IS
FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE IS MUCH LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THESE LAST TWO DAYS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN MEDIUM-RANGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION...AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. CHECK FORECASTS AND
DISCUSSIONS REGULARLY FOR UPDATES.

&&.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER
AND BAY WATERS ROUGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. DEADLY THUNDERSTORM LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
MARINE HAZARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATER
PORTION OF THE FLIGHT ROUTE...AS WELL AS AT THE KEYW AND KMTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND PORTION OF
THE FLIGHT ROUTE...AS WELL AS ALONG THE LOWER KEYS (OVER THE KEYW
TERMINAL). ANY SHOWER WILL REDUCE FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR...AND
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CIRCUMNAVIGABLE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 90/80/90/80/90 30/30/30/30/30
MARATHON 93/80/93/80/93 30/30/30/30/30

&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.......K. KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...L. KASPER

[jabber]

Local news here in West Palm Beach states "Keep an eye on it" and the storms normally follow the gulf stream up... that was a new one to me

[snowflake]

The Houston weather discussion says that high pressure is stiil forecast to move in by next weekend. The Lake Charles weather discussion says that Frances is expected to shift to a more wnw movement at 15 mph. With that path and speed it will move toward the northeast caribean early in the week and into the bahamas by late next week. It is forecast remain a major hurricane the next five days.

[Dean4Storms]

I know it can change it's the GFS, but one thing has happened with the GFS of late, several runs have kept Frances coming through the Florida straits and into the GOM..........


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.mrfnhpcp.html

[Dean4Storms]

Sorry, didn't realize this had been posted ad-noseum!

[Guest]

yes it does some on here donot like to talk about models days out but there is one that shows this Hurricane in the gom and hitting Al, Ms The models do change. a few days ago it showed it hitting Va but the model i am looking at goes to something like 14 days out All this can change and probably will but Fl and the people in the Gom need to be watching this just as closely as i am being here on the EC

[Hyperstorm]

You should be concerned if the hurricane takes this track. If it materializes, it could be right on your doorstep as a rather intense hurricane. Watch out...

[tropicsgal]

Mets here say won't be to concerned until the middle of the week, but they are keeping an eye on Frances.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040828 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040828 1200 040829 0000 040829 1200 040830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 51.6W 18.3N 53.1W 19.0N 54.6W 19.4N 56.4W
BAMM 17.2N 51.6W 18.2N 53.2W 18.8N 54.7W 19.1N 56.5W
A98E 17.2N 51.6W 18.4N 53.1W 19.7N 54.7W 21.1N 56.6W
LBAR 17.2N 51.6W 18.4N 53.0W 19.3N 54.7W 19.8N 56.5W
SHIP 105KTS 105KTS 104KTS 102KTS
DSHP 105KTS 105KTS 104KTS 102KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040830 1200 040831 1200 040901 1200 040902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.5N 58.6W 20.3N 63.7W 21.4N 68.2W 22.5N 70.6W
BAMM 19.3N 58.9W 20.2N 64.0W 21.5N 68.5W 23.0N 71.4W
A98E 22.4N 59.0W 26.3N 64.8W 29.1N 68.5W 31.0N 68.5W
LBAR 20.1N 58.9W 21.2N 64.0W 22.0N 68.4W 22.7N 71.2W
SHIP 101KTS 99KTS 95KTS 88KTS
DSHP 101KTS 99KTS 95KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.2N LONCUR = 51.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 50.1W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 48.6W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 958MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE