Charley Advisories

[Stephanie]

And this current front is expected to be the strongest of the last four that we've received.

Yes it is! This whole summer has been SOOO unusual. With Charley slowing down though, I can see that he may miss it altogether - it remains to be seen, that's for sure!

[Stormcenter]

don't get too excited....it's moving west

Go west is what Charly seems to want to do.

[The Dark Knight]

-removed- is all I have. This beast is moving north into New England just like 1938. Latest satellite clearly shows a sharp, well pronounced hook due north and wild acceleration.

LOL......

[Matthew5]

This so called beast is getting its guts tooken out moving south of Jamaica.

[Stephanie]

Whew the -removed- is rampant now...... Make it stopppppppp

It seems like a good old discussion is going on here now. Questions and answers are not -removed-.

[Stormcenter]

This so called beast is getting its guts tooken out moving south of Jamaica.

Are you serious or just kidding? It looks fine to me.

[MGC]

Hurricane C is just catching up with the ULL to his west. A little shear and the mountains of Jamaica are giving the illusion of a NW track......MGC

[Steve Cosby]

This whole summer has been SOOO unusual.

And, of course, this year, with its extremely low temperatures, is the first year in seven that I am NOT coaching my son's baseball team.

[bahamaswx]

I see no shear. Outflow is beginning to look very impressive on our "Hurricane C".

[Wnghs2007]

I Agree MGC


it is under some shear.

[Three Blind Mice]

Buzz Saw building! Charley will rule the night. Watch the mb drop tonight.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 120017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0017Z
B. 17 DEG 28 MIN N
78 DEG 09 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1342 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 204 DEG 60 KT
G. 132 DEG 06 NM
H. 992 MB
I. 16 C/ 1530 M
J. 19 C/ 1511 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. AF968 0403A CHARLEY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 60 KT SE QUAD 0015Z.

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmm........ Muy Interesting....

[Stephanie]

This whole summer has been SOOO unusual.

And, of course, this year, with its extremely low temperatures, is the first year in seven that I am NOT coaching my son's baseball team.

[Matthew5]

Jamaica done its number on this because it was 80 knots now its 60 knots.

[ALhurricane]

Definitely not undergoing much intensification at this time. IR imagery looks a 'little' ragged this evening. Charley is basically holding his own at this point and may be feel some effects of the ULL to its west.

[Brent]

Jamaica done its number on this because it was 80 knots now its 60 knots.

I think they will find stronger winds in the NE eyewall.

[Weatherboy1]

Certainly isn't "explosive deepening" but Charley's pressure has been inching down all day. The key will be what happens once it clears Jamaica (which is happening right about now). The mountains there are about 4,000 - 5,000 feet high, if I remember from my honeymoon cruise a few years back, so given the track of the storm, inflow was likely disrupted. Now, he won't have that handicap. I'm glad recon's in there, that's for sure.

[Hyperstorm]

Although I would have expected the pressure to be slightly lower, it's clear that the system is holding its own. Jamaica MUST be the cause of the really slow strengthening as of right now. Tomorrow should be rapid intensification day for Charley...

[PTPatrick]

Here are a couple of reason why I think NHC is not jumping on a more westward track, YET.

1. They dont want to seem like model worshipers. By catering to the models ever whim they look like whimps.

2. (the big reason) They dont want to alarm the farther western areas of the gulf coast just yet. Flopping on the track and nudging west would not only raise Tampa's concern more, but also Tallahasee, Pensacola, Mobile, and New Orleans. With further west cities, you are then talking a bout the potential for a slower moving cane that is blowing up. Bottom line, until they have a lot of reason to concern areas on the northern gulf coast, they will not do so. If it did, they would have more time to warn anyway, so big deal. But if it hits where they have forecasted now, time is definately more of the essense.