Ivan Advisories

[NJCane]

NW turn makes sense due to the oncoming trough which means the high can only come so far west, which is what I think the GFDL and Ukmet are seeing.

[cycloneye]

Yes that NW turn will be very important where it makes it to see if here where I am Ivan pays a visit or not.

[wxman57]

They're on their way, here's the 2nd report:

URNT11 KNHC 061530
97779 15304 20146 61000 56400 06023 55//1 /4590
RMK AF977 0109A IVAN OB 02

at 14.6N / 61.0W - near St. Lucia, at 1530Z. Still a few hours away from Ivan.

[lilbump3000]

At 5 o'clock we will know all we need to know on this system.

[wxman57]

At 5 o'clock we will know all we need to know on this system.

Not, all we need to know, but more than now.. Still no more reports.

[weatherFrEaK]

Bumped and waiting...

[Thunder44]

URNT11 KNHC 061615
97779 16154 20124 58400 54900 06033 53//1 /4586
RMK AF977 0109A IVAN OB 03

12.4N 58.4W

[wxman57]

Ob 3 here:

URNT11 KNHC 061615
97779 16154 20124 58400 54900 06033 53//1 /4586
RMK AF977 0109A IVAN OB 03

12.4N/58.4W at 1615Z. FL wind 060/33kts. Should be there within the hour.

[MWatkins]

URNT11 KNHC 061645
97779 16454 20110 56400 54900 03029 55568 /4583
RMK AF977 0109A IVAN OB 04

;
Almost there...11.0 56.4

MW

[wxman57]

URNT11 KNHC 061703
97779 17034 20104 55500 30500 01015 10088 /3112 43425
RMK AF977 0109A IVAN OB 05

10.4N/55.5W at 1703Z. FL winds 010/15kts, SFC winds 340/25kts

[weatherFrEaK]

RECON bump.

[btsgmdad]

RECON bump, hope to hear something soon.

[MWatkins]

Public advisory

Winds: 115mph
Pressure: 969MB

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT4.0409061759

MW

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 061730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/1729Z
B. 11 DEG 20 MIN N
54 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2837 M
D. 35 KT
E. 224 DEG 18 NM
F. 317 DEG 53 KT
G. 223 DEG 004 NM
H. 969 MB
I. 9 C/ 3064 M
J. 18 C/ 3072 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E14/7/5
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF977 0109A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 53 KT SW QUAD 1728Z.

This storm may even be weaker than Cat 3.

[Brent]

53 kt? Is it even a hurricane?

[x-y-no]

Elliptical eye, 7NM by 5 NM -- that's pretty small.

[x-y-no]

53 kt? Is it even a hurricane?

That's just the max they've measured at flight level so far. They haven't been there long, that'll go up.

n.b. SW quadrant.

[Thunder44]

53 kt? Is it even a hurricane?

That's just the max they've measured at flight level so far. They haven't been there long, that'll go up.

n.b. SW quadrant.

Yes, but 53kts is still kind of low at first pass for a 115mph hurricane.

[Thunder44]

URNT14 KNHC 061803
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01104 10555 13112 11008 01018
02106 20553 23107 21008 01021
03106 30550 33099 31006 34021
04107 40548 43084 40908 33030
05109 50546 53059 51009 34026
06111 60545 63023 60909 33031
MF113 M0543 MF050
OBS 01 AT 1703Z
OBS 06 AT 1725Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 34025
01115 10542 13010 11009 12087
02117 20540 23059 20909 12060
03119 30538 33090 31008 12070
04120 40536 43110 40908 11049
05122 50534 53123 50807 12061
06124 60532 63125 60807 12055
07125 70531 73134 70807 12054
MF115 M0542 MF087
OBS 01 AT 1733Z
OBS 07 AT 1801Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 14050
RMK AF977 0109A IVAN OB 10

Supplementary Vortex message shows they found 87kt winds, so it's still a hurricane, but maybe not even a Cat 2.

[wxman57]

53 kt? Is it even a hurricane?

One thing you need to consider is that a hurricane isn't a ring of uniform wind speeds. A 115kt hurricane may have 115 kts only in one small part of one quadrant. Other quadrants could be much lower. With Isabel last year, during its annular stage, those 125kt winds went almost all the way around the center. Each hurricane is different. The plane makes a straight line pass into the eye. Sometimes it hits a max wind pocket, sometimes not.

With Ivan, hurricane-force winds could be confined to the right front to right rear quadrants.