Frances Advisories

[WXBUFFJIM]

Also 4 hurricanes in August. We only saw that happen 3 times prior to Frances, 1950, 1969, and I believe 1977. Correct me if I'm wrong
Jim

[WeatherEmperor]

And the worst part is that we arent even in September yet.....

<RICKY>

[Guest]

yeah, this season could be one for the record books. Also assuming frances and soon to be Georges landfall, thats 5/7 landfalling systems so far! amazing.

[Guest]

Charleston

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THRU FRI/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK MAY BE UNSETTLED AT TIMES WITH A RESIDUAL SFC TROF AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE N WITH DEEPER MOISTURE LIKELY BECOMING SITUATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

Jacksonville

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER S GA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH E-W RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER S FL. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EXECTED EACH DAY.

Miami

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA BACK INTO A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALLOW FOR THE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING.

A ridge should be in place while Frances arrives on the scene..Question where will she be & how strong will the ridge be & who will be affected most.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

[WeatherNole]

Nikolai -

Better update that list of names. "Georges" was retired. "Gaston" is next up.

No one hits like Gaston
Matches wits like Gaston
In a spitting match nobody spits like Gaston
I'm especially good at expectorating!
Ptoooie!
Ten points for Gaston!


Mike

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[crazycajuncane]

I was wondering about the status of that cold front. I know it's supposed to linger around here for the weekend. Not sure it'll have any impact on Frances.

[Pebbles]

*chuckles* OH GOSH...toooooo much Disney!

[B-Bear]

Hmm. I don't know what the NOGAPS model is saying. Why isn't its graphic included with the other models?

[Derek Ortt]

nogaps has it heading toward bermuda, but bending back to the nw at the end, kind of a felix 1995 track

[WeatherNole]

I have three sons at home - ages 4 1/2, 3, and 6 months. My Disney days are going to be around for a long time to come.

Mike

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[ColdFront77]

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA BACK INTO A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALLOW FOR THE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING.

It appears if the flow is east to southeast that would 'channel' Frances toward the Florida coastline.

[B-Bear]

nogaps has it heading toward bermuda, but bending back to the nw at the end, kind of a felix 1995 track

So pretty much the same as the NHC track, with a jog to the NW towards the end of the track?

[Pebbles]

I have three sons at home - ages 4 1/2, 3, and 6 months. My Disney days are going to be around for a long time to come.

Mike

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Right there with you! Though the flavor of this month is a return to watching the last 10 minutes of Shrek...over....and over.....and over...... *gags at the instant replay of Shrek's dance party that's stuck in her head*

[LowMug]

I just don't see that extreme of an intensity fall especially to Cat 1 status...I agree there are fluctuations but not that drastic with a storm this organized...

I am probably wrong...but would love to hear what anyone else has to say

[zoeyann]

My four year old actually watches shrek as it rewinds and then in play over and over and over.

[STORMSURGE]

Yeah and NC and FLA seem to be popular tourist spots for storms this season, Frances is probably already checking the rates! LOL

[Guest]

lol yea i forgot about the georges supposed to be gaston.... shrek isnt a bad movie though. And if your kids have disney channel, thats all theyll watch. My sister watches that channel all day!

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see that extreme of an intensity fall especially to Cat 1 status...I agree there are fluctuations but not that drastic with a storm this organized...

I am probably wrong...but would love to hear what anyone else has to say

I agree mug, don't see that much of a drop off. I do see a larger eye appearing but would only surmise a slight drop in winds. A storm this large and organized usually doesn't drop its wind speeds that largely unless it encounters shear or cold water from my memory of past systems this large and well organized. A 10-15mph change would be my guess.

[Derek Ortt]

floyd went from 135KT to 105KT is 6-12 hours during its replacement. These replacements really do take a lot out. These changes usually are not represented in the advisories, but only in Best Track (so dont expect to see the fluctuations represented in real time, only after the season is over