Charley Advisories

[Steve H.]

Take heed of any orders to evacuate in the path of this one. Notice the current satellite signature. Restricted on the SWquad as per NHC disco, but look at the eastern side. It has filled the envelope considerably. Once this gets west of Jamaica and the UL low down near Honduras backs SW, Charley is going to grow in size and intensity. Water temps and UL conditions are improving, if not ideal, and forward speed is good for rapid intensification and outflow. This is one that could get to Cat 3/4 without breaking a sweat

[Stratosphere747]

DT...When do you think it would have to make the turn to catch the front??

Or how much longer would it have to remain on this course before those of us in Tx and La would have to start keeping more of and eye on Charley??

[GalvestonDuck]

Houston is NOT a landfall zone. It's too far off the coast. Why do people say Houston, as if a hurricane can just hop all the way over Galveston, Tiki, Bayou Vista, Texas City, La Marque, Friendswood, League City...should I go on?

[Stormsfury]

Two runs publicly (since April) 00z and 12z runs ...

SF

Ah, thanks for the correction.

The Euros are still stingy though.

Um ... yeah ...

Just looked at the run from the ECMWF site .. I HATE those graphics ... but on Day 6, it has it off the TX coast ... and Day 7, off the TX coast ... not much movement in that 24 hour timeframe ...

I'm NOT ready to jump to that conclusion painted by the ECMWF ... and I haven't seen the model initialization on the 12z run ... I love using the EC for MR progs but I just am not sold on this depiction right now, especially since it's the MO ... the key here is to follow other model guidance and see IF the other models begin to shift westward (whether dramatically or gradually) in the tracks and we have time to find if the EC here is the Outlier or the Model onto something ...

SF

[Stormcenter]

Two runs publicly (since April) 00z and 12z runs ...

SF

Ah, thanks for the correction.

The Euros are still stingy though.

Um ... yeah ...

Just looked at the run from the ECMWF site .. I HATE those graphics ... but on Day 6, it has it off the TX coast ... and Day 7, off the TX coast ... not much movement in that 24 hour timeframe ...




I'm NOT ready to jump to that conclusion painted by the ECMWF ... and I haven't seen the model initialization on the 12z run ... I love using the EC for MR progs but I just am not sold on this depiction right now, especially since it's the MO ... the key here is to follow other model guidance and see IF the other models begin to shift westward (whether dramatically or gradually) in the tracks and we have time to find if the EC here is the Outlier or the Model onto something ...

SF

Good post.

[cycloneye]

Two runs publicly (since April) 00z and 12z runs ...

SF

Ah, thanks for the correction.

The Euros are still stingy though.

Um ... yeah ...

Just looked at the run from the ECMWF site .. I HATE those graphics ... but on Day 6, it has it off the TX coast ... and Day 7, off the TX coast ... not much movement in that 24 hour timeframe ...

I'm NOT ready to jump to that conclusion painted by the ECMWF ... and I haven't seen the model initialization on the 12z run ... I love using the EC for MR progs but I just am not sold on this depiction right now, especially since it's the MO ... the key here is to follow other model guidance and see IF the other models begin to shift westward (whether dramatically or gradually) in the tracks and we have time to find if the EC here is the Outlier or the Model onto something ...

SF

Mike I think that the key will be the gulfstream jet tonight and the data they send and then the global models can factor in at the 00z run.

[Steve Cosby]

Houston is NOT a landfall zone. It's too far off the coast. Why do people say Houston, as if a hurricane can just hop all the way over Galveston, Tiki, Bayou Vista, Texas City, La Marque, Friendswood, League City...should I go on?

Gee whiz, sorry about that! I always thought Galveston was part of the Houston metro. area anyway.

I sure didn't mean to slight Galveston.

[opera ghost]

Duck- It's because Houston is one of those silly major cities... I can't name half the cities in Florida that might get impacted by a landing near Orlando... and most people forget Galveston because it's a smaller city than Houston.

Doesn't make it any better when it's you who's in the bullseye though.

[HouTXmetro]

SAY TX ANYONE?

If you recall one of my posts from Monday I mention that it was Possible that IF and ONLY if CHARLEY slowed down he might miss the trough and then drift west into the Gulf

The last several runs the ecmwf has NOT shown charley at all... this is a common problem with the mode.... that is misses weak TC systems all the time.

However the ecmwf is an amzing model ONCE the model has the system intialized... how good? it was the ECMWF that showed Isabel from 9 days hitting eastern NC central VA when most models showed out to sea or cape cod...

it was ecmwf that showed 7 days out Floyd would not hit Fl but turned N to NC and VA.

I was the ecmwf that showed isidior hitting NO 9 days out .... and in ALL of these cases the model was VERY consisitent and never varied .


WED NIGHT EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF) show that on SAT morning the deep trpugh will have reached its furtherest SOUTH point ... 30 n Lat.

BUT charley will have stalled or slowed even more.... and be at 22 or 23 N.... this palces a 8 degree gap between the two features.

Thus according to the new ecmwf the trough only pulls at Charley but does NOT grab him.... then the trough lifts north and Charley breaks free staying in the central GULF!!!

By Monday and Tuesday Charley is a CAT 4 cane heading WNW towards HOUSTON the the central or Upper TX coast! The Model has a CAT 4 or 5 cane On Houston a week from today.

Well somebody did say be careful for what you ask cause you just might get it. But I wasn't expecting this. If indeed this does come to fruition as posted (cat 3, 4 or 5)I wonder would the city of Houston request evacuations within the city limits? I live near the northern edge of the Clear Creek water shed. I also have relatives that in Galveston.

[opera ghost]

Houston is NOT a landfall zone. It's too far off the coast. Why do people say Houston, as if a hurricane can just hop all the way over Galveston, Tiki, Bayou Vista, Texas City, La Marque, Friendswood, League City...should I go on?

Gee whiz, sorry about that! I always thought Galveston was part of the Houston metro. area anyway.

I sure didn't mean to slight Galveston.

I live in metro Houston (inside our inner loop and 10 miles from downtown) and it takes me an hour to drive to Galveston... on a good afternoon. *grins* It's a hike! However we do have the ship channel and some of the eastern parts of Houston are much much closer to the coast. We get hit- and possibly hard... but it's the city of Galveston that's out there as our barrier island getting demolished by tropical systems.

[Steve]

Still though, I wonder what the ECMWF is initializing to have a storm there with nothing prior. Perhaps it's a low borne out of the post trof environment or something.

Steve

[opera ghost]

HouTXmetro- No mandatory evacuations in the state of Texas if I remember correctly. I remember a couple of times when there have been voluntary evacuations from Galveston Island- But I got here in '91 and havn't seen something big enough to force evacuations in the city limits.

It's IMPORTANT to note that the model we're looking at- it would give us another week before landfall. Charley would have to slow down to miss the trough and take a much more leisurely approach. It's also important to not that this is a possibility- but that the NHC and many models are still stuck on a Floridal landfall.

[Stratosphere747]

Good question Hou...I would have said no way before Alicia..But now not so sure what the plans would be...But I could only imagine if we were under a threat from a Cat3 or higher how much confusion there would be if an evac was called for Galveston and any part of Houston...Just don't think it would be possible..

[GalvestonDuck]

I know, OG and Steve. It's just a major pet peeve of mine. And, seriously, how many people who really REALLY know about hurricanes don't know where Galveston is?

[Guest]

I have NO idea what the hell you are talking about....


First my point about charley never crossing 82.9 has NOTHING to do with the ecmwf. Charley is significantly further s than it it has forecasted to be on a regular bases and it is MUCH slower -- maybe under 15 MPh this afternoon.

second Only you MT would suggest -- er lie actually -- that a Post I made HERE is what I would say at TPC. are you like High?

Third The Cat 4 5 estimation is based on the historical tendency of Carib hurricanes cutting across the Gulf ..... and my experience in dealing with the ecmwf and tropical features.

that is a really EXTREME And possibly unwise forecast from TPC... they never have him crossing 82.9 W LONG

What would you have them do? Change the forecast based on 1 model initialized at 12z?

Did you actually see the 12z initialization or just the 72-168 hr maps available on the ECMWF homepage?

How do you figure a cat-4 or cat-5 from the EC sfc progs?

Even if the trough misses...unlikely...but possible...there will be plenty of shear the system will have to deal with.

Not sure what you would have done if you were on duty this afternoon at NHC.

Flashy headlines are not what the NHC is about. I can only imagine what would happen if NHC screamed with a headline everytime a respected model produced an outlier solution.

When they say something many things are impacted...most importantly the actions of EMAs.

M

[Guest]

[Steve Cosby]

OK, is the BAMD initialized off the European?

To be the cousin of the other two BAM's, it sure does stick out like a sore thumb, huh?

[LAwxrgal]

Wait a minute, isn't the BAMD for weaker systems?

[opera ghost]

Are you sure that map is labeled correctly? I thought it was the BAMM that was heading off into the void- and that the BAMD was heading towards Florida....

Because a lot of people were saying to disregard the BAMM because it dealt with developing storms rather than established storms.

[Guest]

Its bait b/c he is well lying and twsiting what I said.

The fact of the manner is that I express many idea here that I might not if I was in TPC . I think it called freedom of speech or something.

Second what is it that I said that was sooo bad about TPC? That I think its unwise? Oh no NOT that....

Third I think YOU would have to grant that I have argued a further west trend before the re-curve begins.

wxcsi attempt to tie in my argument for a further west trend as something that I am saying only NOW at 5 PM based solely ON THE ECMWF MODEL .

Clearly that is a Lie.

DT, please don't take the bait above.

I just want to express that your forecasts have been superb not just this year but last year as well.

WX, he wasn't saying that Houston was definitely getting hit by a cat 5 hurricane. It's possible based on the EURO, which did have Isabel right. But, I do agree with OHD, wait another day before jumping on it.

DT, again. Your forecasts are SUPERB.

He's more often than not right.

Why is that "bait"? He presented his argument clearly and without namecalling. He did it rather well actually. ANd I'm sure DT will rebutt in the same manner. Just because he disagrees with DT doesn't mean its "bait". He presented his opinion.