Frances Advisories

[Hurricanehink]

Uh-oh...

[golter]

look at this loop, its moving NNW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and I said tropical systems not storms, igmo

[canegrl04]

I believe you are right about the Gilbert/Mitch analogy. This could potentially be the strongest cane to hit the US since Camille.A very scary thought

[Air Force Met]

That's not right. Even the mighty Cat 5 will not stay a 5. Eyewall cycles and shear can kill it. Dry air knocked down Isabel last year. A big old longwave trough will eat a Cat 5 for a snack....and not even burp.

Good point. The whole notion of a hurricane creating its own environment is largely overrated, IMO.

Yep. IT has to be a very large storm...which Frances is not...and it has to be in fairly weak steering flow in the abscence of any major trofs.

Hopefully a lot of the "create her own environment" people learned their lesson from Isabel last year when they thought it would go right into Florida...against all the guidance.

[B-Bear]

That is a whole lot of 86 degree water for it to feed off of. I knew there was warmer water around the islands and in the Florida channel, but I had no idea it had extended that far out to sea. Wow!

[NorthGaWeather]

look at this loop, its moving NNW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and I said tropical systems not storms, igmo

Due Northwest

[WeatherEmperor]

That could become the strongest hurricane to strike the US since Andrew if it takes full advantage of the warm SST's ahead of it.

<RICKY>

[Air Force Met]

look at this loop, its moving NNW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and I said tropical systems not storms, igmo

The direction b/w the 11am and the 5 pm is 310. If you look at a closer image...you will see there is no NNW motion. The NHC says it is moving at 305...but the bearing b/w 11 and 5 is 310. That is NW. To be NNW it has to be moving at about 335.

And...the system south of Bermuda is not truly tropical yet. Its subtropical and will probably stay thatwas as long as it gets sheared.

[B-Bear]

That could become the strongest hurricane to strike the US since Andrew if it takes full advantage of the warm SST's ahead of it.

<RICKY>

Perhaps siginifcantly stronger. Frightening and breathtaking at the same time, ain't it?

[Guest]

Nice post, based on nothing. If that's your prediction then so be it, but this time next week we could still be guessing where she's going. My prediction is a NC grazer.

if go;ters prediction is based on nothing than what is your NC prediction based on?

pwnd

[B-Bear]

Sorry golter, I just don't see it. This storm is thus far doing EXACTLY what she was expected to do. And, like AFMet said, this NW movement was expected. It is likewise expected to continue on that path for the next 24 hrs. or so before moving more westerly, and eventually due west.

At this point, I'll stick my neck out there and say there is no way in hell this storm is a FISH. Too many conditions are now falling into place to make it so. It's hitting somehwere, the question is where.

[msbee]

Luis
do you still think it will pass 18N before it starts to turn?
Happy Birthday schmita!

[Guest]

The only model that goes out far enough for landfall is the stinking GFS! CAT 5 barreling towards FLA? Please, that is based on nothing except fantasy. Sure, you can extrap the NHC and global models, but hardly any reliable model runs show a "S" FLA hit. Except maybe the gfs, again, why you trust the gfs 8 days out is beyond me. Sure its a possible scenario, but it's no more likely than Virginia at this point. Please people, it's next weekend were talkin bout here, get a grip.

[schmita]

What are you doing here? You are supposed to get ready for my party?
My concern is what Luis pointed out. The curve due west. It looks like the northern side of the island (small island though) will get grazed which I suspect will result in nasty rain and wind for a while. I don't see a direct hit here.

Now, go get ready.
irina
Thanks Luis.

[cycloneye]

http://www.el-tiempo-pr.com/PagsPrin/Hu ... ng_12.html

This is according to the 5 PM advisory.For example from Puerto Rico it would pass around 232 miles.

[kittcat]

Air Force Met - I'm one poster here and I feel sure I speak for others too that appreciate your expertise and the fact that you're very responsive to the ideas that other posters write about. And, unlike others, you don't berate them or make them feel stupid if they come up with something you know to be preposterous. I hope that you can continue to post your thoughts on this forum

Kathy

[hurrmia]

air force please let my what forecast mode say doing the weekend and mon and tue i live in miami and that high not going help south fl and bahamas

[Dean4Storms]

Check the Spaghetti run below showing all the tropical and global model runs and one thing becomes apparent to me.

The TWO Scenarios....

1) If near 57w Frances turns more due west as some of the models indicate she will be showing a strong reaction to the ridge and therefore be more of a threat to central Florida and southward.

2) If near 57w she is heading in a more NW course still, then she has poosibly bucked the ridges influence to steer her west and will be more of a threat for the Carolinas or out to sea.

Look at this to see my point........

[kittcat]

Cycloneye - How big is this storm as compared to Andrew, Floyd or Hugo? If it were to hit the US coast, do you know how big of an area the storm would affect? Thanks.

Kathy

[cycloneye]

Kathy this is a big hurricane not only in terms of the winds but in the overall size compared with Hugo.Floyd was bigger than what Frances is now but it well may grow more larger in comming days.Making a landfall if it does it will cover a big area of the coast.