Charley Advisories

[OtherHD]

I know the Euro is one of the more reliable models out there, but since it's just now showing charley, I'd wait a few more runs to see if anything changes. If we're looking at the same forecast from the Euro at this time tomorrow, I'd be more concerned. I still trust the NHC at this point.

[wxcsi]

that is a really EXTREME And possibly unwise forecast from TPC... they never have him crossing 82.9 W LONG

What would you have them do? Change the forecast based on 1 model initialized at 12z?

Did you actually see the 12z initialization or just the 72-168 hr maps available on the ECMWF homepage?

How do you figure a cat-4 or cat-5 from the EC sfc progs?

Even if the trough misses...unlikely...but possible...there will be plenty of shear the system will have to deal with.

Not sure what you would have done if you were on duty this afternoon at NHC.

Flashy headlines are not what the NHC is about. I can only imagine what would happen if NHC screamed with a headline everytime a respected model produced an outlier solution.

When they say something many things are impacted...most importantly the actions of EMAs.

M

[Aquawind]

Brent - Most of Florida is already a swamp with asphalt over top.

LOL..Exactly..

[Typhoon_Willie]

How true! How True Kittcat!

[OtherHD]

Here is a link to the Euro (ECMWF) model:

http://www.ecmwf.int

And here is the 168 hr. forecast for Charley:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4081112!!/

[JTD]

DT, please don't take the bait above.

I just want to express that your forecasts have been superb not just this year but last year as well.

WX, he wasn't saying that Houston was definitely getting hit by a cat 5 hurricane. It's possible based on the EURO, which did have Isabel right. But, I do agree with OHD, wait another day before jumping on it.

DT, again. Your forecasts are SUPERB.

He's more often than not right.

[Stormsfury]

Seems like the GFDL is the model of choice for the NHC. I have only seen a couple models that show such an easterly track...

Related to that, wonder which models have the ability to digest storms in close proximity to one another as these will be??

Thanks again,

Curtis

Well, one issue with the 12z runs from Bonnie and Charley ... on the PSU site it's run individually for each system ... so (on the frames that you can see, anyway) ... when Bonnie was run, Charley doesn't even show up and vice versa ... just some food for thought ...

SF

[Pebbles]

Here is a link to the Euro (ECMWF) model:

http://www.ecmwf.int

And here is the 168 hr. forecast for Charley:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4081112!!/

Thanks!

[OtherHD]

May have to wait more than one day now that I just remembered how stingy the Europeans are with their data and models and stuff. As far as I know, the ECMWF runs are only updated and released publically every 24 hours, although I don't know if DT can get access to them more frequently as a pro met or not.

[JTD]

Here is a link to the Euro (ECMWF) model:

http://www.ecmwf.int

And here is the 168 hr. forecast for Charley:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4081112!!/

OHD, you live in Houston don't you?

I hope for you this is incorrect. The EURO model I mean.

[Steve Cosby]

What would you have them do? Change the forecast based on 1 model initialized at 12z?

It seems that a more westerly push was in order - there was very little tweak of the track.

[OtherHD]

Jason, I'm in Houston but will be moving a week from now.

[southerngale]

Surely this won't verify. I thought eastern GOM was pretty much a done deal.

[stormtrackerFDK1]

DT, please don't take the bait above.

I just want to express that your forecasts have been superb not just this year but last year as well.

WX, he wasn't saying that Houston was definitely getting hit by a cat 5 hurricane. It's possible based on the EURO, which did have Isabel right. But, I do agree with OHD, wait another day before jumping on it.

DT, again. Your forecasts are SUPERB.

He's more often than not right.

Why is that "bait"? He presented his argument clearly and without namecalling. He did it rather well actually. ANd I'm sure DT will rebutt in the same manner. Just because he disagrees with DT doesn't mean its "bait". He presented his opinion.

[opera ghost]

Here is a link to the Euro (ECMWF) model:

http://www.ecmwf.int

And here is the 168 hr. forecast for Charley:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4081112!!/

OHD, you live in Houston don't you?

I hope for you this is incorrect. The EURO model I mean.

I think all of us in Houston (there are quite a few at S2K) would hope that this is wrong. But if it's a possibility it needs to be monitored.

[Steve]

DT,

I originally thought Charley may have been on a southern track (since changed my mind). But the European doesn't seem to do anything in any of its other steps across the gulf. It can't just appear out of the blue as a major hurricane following light little L's across the area. Any shot that might be from something else that it's sniffing out?

Steve

[Stormsfury]

May have to wait more than one day now that I just remembered how stingy the Europeans are with their data and models and stuff. As far as I know, the ECMWF runs are only updated and released publically every 24 hours, although I don't know if DT can get access to them more frequently as a pro met or not.

Two runs publicly (since April) 00z and 12z runs ...

SF

[dixiebreeze]

I do value your analysis, DT. A very interesting summary. Hope it's a possibility -- though not wishing any devastation for Houston!

[wxcsi]

DT, please don't take the bait above.

I just want to express that your forecasts have been superb not just this year but last year as well.

WX, he wasn't saying that Houston was definitely getting hit by a cat 5 hurricane. It's possible based on the EURO, which did have Isabel right. But, I do agree with OHD, wait another day before jumping on it.

DT, again. Your forecasts are SUPERB.

He's more often than not right.

These are very legitimate questions!

I am not questioning his forecasting ability. I would like to know how do you get a Cat-4/Cat-5 from looking at the EC sfc depiction? Does the EC run a separate model for hurricanes?

And what would you have NHC do?

I am very interested in his opinion. This is why I posted a response to his post.

M

[OtherHD]

Two runs publicly (since April) 00z and 12z runs ...

SF

Ah, thanks for the correction.

The Euros are still stingy though.