Charley Advisories

[Steve Cosby]

Model hugger! (JK )

[c5Camille]

YIKES ! ! ! !

[Steve H.]

Well what do YOU think DT?

[cebers01]

Holy Schnikies! Now that's different...

Anyu thoughts from the more learned ones out here?

Why is this model so indifferent to the trough?

How much faith does the TPC/NHC have in this model considering the runs it had on these storms?

Thanks,

Curtis

[bahamaswx]

I thought most models showed Isabel trekking through the Bahamas and into Florida 9 days out?

Interesting nevertheless, but I wouldn't be too concerned ATM with no other model support.

[wayoutfront]

[wayoutfront]

I thought most models showed Isabel trekking through the Bahamas and into Florida 9 days out?

I remember DT called Isabel about 7(?) days out, and was against the grain of about every model

nope...not sucking up

[Pebbles]

do you by chance have a link of this model (that is animated) For some reason have several others but not this one. Thanks

[lookout]

SAY TX ANYONE?

If you recall one of my posts from Monday I mention that it was Possible that IF and ONLY if CHARLEY slowed down he might miss the trough and then drift west into the Gulf

The last several runs the ecmwf has NOT shown charley at all... this is a common problem with the mode.... that is misses weak TC systems all the time.

However the ecmwf is an amzing model ONCE the model has the system intialized... how good? it was the ECMWF that showed Isabel from 9 days hitting eastern NC central VA when most models showed out to sea or cape cod...

it was ecmwf that showed 7 days out Floyd would not hit Fl but turned N to NC and VA.

I was the ecmwf that showed isidior hitting NO 9 days out .... and in ALL of these cases the model was VERY consisitent and never varied .


WED NIGHT EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF) show that on SAT morning the deep trpugh will have reached its furtherest SOUTH point ... 30 n Lat.

BUT charley will have stalled or slowed even more.... and be at 22 or 23 N.... this palces a 8 degree gap between the two features.

Thus according to the new ecmwf the trough only pulls at Charley but does NOT grab him.... then the trough lifts north and Charley breaks free staying in the central GULF!!!

By Monday and Tuesday Charley is a CAT 4 cane heading WNW towards HOUSTON the the central or Upper TX coast! The Model has a CAT 4 or 5 cane On Houston a week from today.

NHC is being very stubborn in its forecast of Charley, the 5pm advisory/forecast track is very similiar to the 11am advisory, which seems odd considering the models shifting west. one would think they would at least nudge landfall further north into northwest florida.



HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH
SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED
BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...SO THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND THE OCEAN VERY
FAVORABLE...FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND...AFTER WOBBLING A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE
RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE...290/15. I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT
48 HOURS...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN...AS WELL
AS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 77.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.3N 79.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 20.5N 81.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 80 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1800Z 49.0N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Storm Man]

I don't think so.I say tampa area sat.Am.

[opera ghost]

Oh man- you're giving me shivers over here DT...

I can't decide whether I'd be excited to see lots of people proven wrong (It really is fun to watch everyone scramble)- terrified to see a cane heading in my direction... or highly amused because hurricanes *never* come within striking distance of me.

For now I'm just going to keep an eye on that potential monster.

[Stormcenter]

I don't think so.I say tampa area sat.Am.

May I ask where in FL. do you live?

[Guest]

that is a really EXTREME And possibly unwise forecast from TPC... they never have him crossing 82.9 W LONG

[Steve Cosby]

or highly amused because hurricanes *never* come within striking distance of me.

No, you just just get nasty rain pumpers (Allison).

My wife was in Conroe in a hotel waiting to go back to Huntsville and pick our daughter up from gymnastics camp. During that mess, I could have driven down from Arkansas and gotten to our daughter while the wife could not go more than a mile in any direction for the water. That was an amazing storm - for just being a "Tropical Storm".

[GalvestonDuck]

Bah humbug!

[lookout]

I don't think so.I say tampa area sat.Am.

i believe the nhc has the track too far south right now. im betting between Tampa and Tallahassee, leaning more toward the north end of that area right now based on todays movements and models.

[Steve Cosby]

that is a really EXTREME And possibly unwise forecast from TPC... they never have him crossing 82.9 W LONG

Totally agree...

You know, it seems to me that you can really see the steering currents in the Water Vapor loops right now. Just from that, it sure looks like what you are saying is right on. It is becoming pretty dog-gone clear this is not going to do a right hook any time soon.

[cebers01]

Seems like the GFDL is the model of choice for the NHC. I have only seen a couple models that show such an easterly track...

Related to that, wonder which models have the ability to digest storms in close proximity to one another as these will be??

Thanks again,

Curtis

[kittcat]

Brent - Most of Florida is already a swamp with asphalt over top.

[rainstorm]

dont know about that far west, but mobile isnt out of the woods