Frances Advisories

[jlauderdal]

Nice post, based on nothing. If that's your prediction then so be it, but this time next week we could still be guessing where she's going. My prediction is a NC grazer.

if go;ters prediction is based on nothing than what is your NC prediction based on?

[c5Camille]

[ColinD]

Everyone is in the woods and a dark wood it is.

[canegrl04]

This would be the first time millions of peple are able to track a cat 5 Atlantic hurricane headed for the US.The internet was still a new thing back in '92

[PurdueWx80]

Go Baby Go!

What do you mean Purdue? Go from the islands or go from the all the east coast.I can say that here in the northern islands we can breath a little more easy from now.

LOL, I'm showing some of my regional influences. There was a commercial a few years ago around here from Churchill Downs in Louisville. Basically the whole theme was "Go, Baby Go!" and it was referring to horses. I was just bringing it up and saying it looks like Frances is going for a "victory" as in Cat 5 status. I really hope it does, but weakens before any potential threat to land.

[Valkhorn]

Well this is just odd, because how many times have we had a Category 5 in consecutive years?

[B-Bear]

The Atlantic Basin record is 888 mb with Gilbert.

Thanks. And thanks to you too, nikolai.

Okay, Frances. Show me your stuff. Let's see how low you can go.

*plays limbo music*

[Brent]

This would be the first time millions of peple are able to track a cat 5 Atlantic hurricane headed for the US.The internet was still a new thing back in '92

Isabel last year was a Cat 5. But, it was only a Cat 2 when it made landfall.

[Steve]

Like I've been doing since yesterday, we all have to give props to Stewart. His forecasts completely rule. He doesn't pull punches and gives a real idea what he's thinking. I had to laugh at his STDS after reading Avilla's morning Tropical Weather Discussion. Bland cardboard vs. wild berry.

In thanks, I sent an e-mail in the comments/feedback section to the webmaster (Todd) @ NHC asking him to pass along that the public appreciates the job Stewart does in comparison to everyone else. Hopefully that doesn't mean they can him

Steve

[Guest]

The weather does this to me sometimes. I have been mainly off the boards due to school starting this week. I start ignoring it, and then, BOOM, we have a Cat 3, likely a Cat 4, and possibly a Cat 5 hurricane headed for the southeast coat.


With not as much homework to do, I think I will be watching this imensely, and next week, as it nears the country, I am going to get on when I can make room.

[canegrl04]

The official NHC 5 day forecast track map places Frances close to the Bahamas .This could very well be deja vu regarding Andrew

[B-Bear]

I'm not a met, so all I have to offer is my very unprofessional and unscientific opinion.

The models are moving together so nicely, and the strong ridge seems to be far more likely. So I'm starting to not like where it's pointing--I think this bad girl is going to cross southern FL and get into the Gulf.

Yeah, yeah. I know. It's a long way out. Just saying this based upon what information exists at this point.

[Weatherboy1]

Isabel last year was a Cat 5. But, it was only a Cat 2 when it made landfall.

Isabel -- like Floyd in 1999 -- were monster storms at one point. But they weakened before landfall because they were in the process of recurving. That is common in many recurving systems. The problem here is that IF Frances does indeed just truck W or WNW under a solid ridge, the influences that come into play to weaken recurving storms (trough interaction, inhibited inflow, cooler SSTs further N, etc.) won't influence her. In other words, she could MAINTAIN Cat 4 status all the way to landfall. Not saying it WILL happen, but if she gets to that level and the 120-hour forecast track of the NHC just gets extended out over the next three days in the same direction, we here in SE FL are going to be in seriously deep you know what.

Again, I am NOT saying that will happen. It is too early to say so. But by Sunday night and into Monday, the picture will be a lot clearer.

[golter]

He said it possible cat 5 will be barrelling into south Florida. He can predict that, but its just that a prediction based on speculation. This storm is nothing like Andrew. Andrew was much farther west at this tim and Andrew did not have two tropical systems to the north of it. The ridge's strength is the not a given. Bermuda Low is holding ridge to the north and allowing Frances to keep her nnw track longer. Thats what my prediciton is based on. Also, I am of the opinion that once models come into agreement they have a left biased and tend to move towards the east. This has already happend from the 12OZ run to the 18 OZ. Lets watch and hope shes a fis.

[dynamo]

the NHC tracks it at a 1 deg. latitude gain for every 5 deg. long. gain. If you look at the last estimate at 120 hours, 21.5N/65.5W and do the math at another 36 hours then you get to around 24.5N/80.5W which puts it right on top of Palm Beach County.

Just thought it was interesting

[B-Bear]

Back to back cat 5 seasons wouldn't really surprise me at all. We have gotten into a more active pattern these past few years, and conditions have been favorable for hurricane development. All it takes from that point on is an absence of road blocks and mother nature will do what she does best--wreak havoc by producing cat 5 canes.

[stormernie]

24.5 80.5 is in the upper keys near Ocean Reef and Homestead area..

[dynamo]

24.5 80.5 is in the upper keys near Ocean Reef and Homestead area..

I stand corrected.

[OtherHD]

1988 (Gilbert) and 1989 (Hugo).

[canegrl04]

Once a hurricane reaches cat 5,it creates its own environment.Meaning,nothing can hinder it

It would probably eat a TD or TS for lunch