Charley Advisories

BonesXL · #1101 Postby **BonesXL** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:44 pm

It looks like Jamiaca is starting to affect its motion a little bit. Any thoughts? I could be wrong.

#1102 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:47 pm

Yeah I think you may be right. Usually when tropical systems begin to slow in forward speed it is an indication that the system will begin to turn more north. I guess I will wait another hour or so to see if it truly is a definitive WNW motion. I only pray that this thing does not grow rapidly in intensity.

<RICKY>

Guest · #1103 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:50 pm

Looks like windshear might be a problem. Or it could be Jam. mountains are cutting its inflow off. Not sure.

southerngale · #1104 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:51 pm

Anyone?

#1105 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:52 pm

Ricky,
My eyes might be going crazy to, but that
last frame sure did look WNW or beginning NW.
I guess we will know in a few hours.

Bane · #1106 Postby **Bane** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:52 pm

Jamaica wouldn't effect it's motion. It is steered by upper level factors. Looks to me that's it is orienting itself nw-se but that could just be an illusion.

#1107 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:58 pm

The BAMM model is designed for systems steered by a medium steering layer...such as developing tropical storms. However...once a system reaches hurricane strength the BAMM model is not so good...with errors approaching 600 nautical miles in 120 hours. The BAM suite consistently took Floyd into Vero Beach several years ago even when all of the other guidance did not.

Hope this helps...

MW

bahamaswx · #1108 Postby **bahamaswx** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:58 pm

Disregard it. Charley is much too deep--BAMD has a better handle on it.

#1109 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:59 pm

Friday the 13th. Make of it what you will :roll:

southerngale · #1110 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:59 pm

Thanks Mike!

HurricaneGirl · #1111 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:00 pm

Website · #1112 Postby **Brent** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:06 pm

I've been thinking about this for days. Watch for rapid strengthening just prior to landfall that will be sudden and unforecasted. Florida will become a swamp.

:eek:

J/K(I hope).

storm4u · #1113 Postby **storm4u** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:07 pm

Now thats a scary thought!!!! :eek:

CocoaBill · #1114 Postby **CocoaBill** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:10 pm

Yes - Thank you for answering, Mike, et al........

PTrackerLA · #1115 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:13 pm

Whether it's not a good model or what, seeing that makes me more concerned. Not sure if we're quite out of the woods with Charley yet :?:

.

PTrackerLA · #1116 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:16 pm

It looks like it took a slight jog to the WNW but in the last few frames it appeared to be edging more W again.

dougjp · #1117 Postby **dougjp** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:20 pm

MortisFL, thanks for the comprehensive forecast link. Is there a base URL to bookmark for future new models, and some way of finding the right forecast graphic when there?

Aquawind · #1118 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:26 pm

BonesXL wrote:It looks like Jamiaca is starting to affect its motion a little bit. Any thoughts? I could be wrong.

Jamaica isn't bother nuttin..heck the winds in Kingston are nuttin special and they are on the Southern portion of the island and should be feeling something if it were to be affecting Charley..
:wink:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

Guest · #1119 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:39 pm

SAY TX ANYONE?

If you recall one of my posts from Monday I mention that it was Possible that IF and ONLY if CHARLEY slowed down he might miss the trough and then drift west into the Gulf

The last several runs the ecmwf has NOT shown charley at all... this is a common problem with the mode.... that is misses weak TC systems all the time.

However the ecmwf is an amzing model ONCE the model has the system intialized... how good? it was the ECMWF that showed Isabel from 9 days hitting eastern NC central VA when most models showed out to sea or cape cod...

it was ecmwf that showed 7 days out Floyd would not hit Fl but turned N to NC and VA.

I was the ecmwf that showed isidior hitting NO 9 days out .... and in ALL of these cases the model was VERY consisitent and never varied .

WED NIGHT EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF) show that on SAT morning the deep trpugh will have reached its furtherest SOUTH point ... 30 n Lat.

BUT charley will have stalled or slowed even more.... and be at 22 or 23 N.... this palces a 8 degree gap between the two features.

Thus according to the new ecmwf the trough only pulls at Charley but does NOT grab him.... then the trough lifts north and Charley breaks free staying in the central GULF!!!

By Monday and Tuesday Charley is a CAT 4 cane heading WNW towards HOUSTON the the central or Upper TX coast! The Model has a CAT 4 or 5 cane On Houston a week from today.

Guest · #1120 Postby **Guest** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:41 pm

Normally I would NOT buy this track / scenario from the ECMWF ...
But the slowing of Charley.... the fact that he has stayed south as the ridge builds off of FL... at least gives the chance that the trough might not grab him completely...

On the other hand the FORECASTING rule is that when the trough axis is within 10 degrees of the cane it begin to turn it and by 8 degrees the trough should have captured the system completely...

so come sat morning that 8 degree gap might mean the trough could miss Charley....

Charley Advisories

WNW or NW

Charley is forecast to reach Florida on.........

MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CHARLEY TRACK?

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