Tropical Storm Ophelia

[artist]

some interesting models here -

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TCPR ... gloop.html

[SkeetoBite]

[skufful]

NHC 5pm has moved landfall north closer to charleston, without actual loop.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wow,

A crow just landed on the fencepost..... miss "O" is getting out east quick.


The loop looks to be in progress??

Some diffrences in the predicted loop and what we are seeing.

1. more east sooner
2. faster, more southern loop location.
3. ULL low zooming in from the southeast.

Also, the mid atlantic ridge appears to be sifting W faster and still building in. I am nort sure the SW trough has "O" or she is really getting kicked east by the ridge now over AK? The trough itself looks cut off already?

A lot of folks are saying here that once the loop happens, the storm will make westward bee line for GA. I may eat that crow on the loop, ( a loop being defined as the track crossing itself ) but I really doubt a storm in that neck of the woods in Sept. will make a due west movement for very long after any such loop. climo is not on that side. If the dang thing loops too quick, we may see it stall out again if the high pressure puts the block on.

whew...

[artist]

they are no longer predicting the loop. NHC that is...

[spinfan4eva]

I am thinking this is headed for an area between Flagler Beach FL and Brunswick, ga. It is not gaining much northward movement at all but only east movement. Then it is headed back west in a couple days. If its not a fish spinner BTW!

[BensonTCwatcher]

She's defininately pulling a trick...She's getting east and also swallowing a dose of dry air. I did not have her shooting east like that in my thinking. If the trough is really cut off, she might ping pong soonere than the NHC.


Looks she will miss the next forecast point already? WOW

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING GOOD!

[artist]

disturbing model here -

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

she appears to keep jumping on and off land there.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap! She's a Hurricane AGAIN!

[cjrciadt]

disturbing model here -

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

she appears to keep jumping on and off land there.

Uhh....... that will suck a lot.

[HurricaneGirl]

[huricanwatcher]

:eek:

[sponger]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


[url]

Looks like the ridge to her North is pressing on her big time. [/url]

[decgirl66]

Soooo.....she is now going to loop to the NORTH west, not the SOUTH west? Or am I just not understanding what they said? (that is probably the case! LOL)

[TheBurn]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Eyes2theSkies]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

you beat me to it. Looks NE to me

[txwatcher91]

Is it me or does it appear the dry air might be eating away at the western side of Ophelia?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Is it me or does it appear the dry air might be eating away at the western side of Ophelia?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Yep, you are correct. I've noticed it as well. It looks like it might be due to some shear as well, along with the dry air. It is now looking more raggedy again and appears to be barely a Category One hurricane. This is evident on infra-red imagery. It also looks slightly worse on visible imagery as well. It may no longer be a hurricane at the moment (temporarily). It has now lost nearly all deep red convection and has now mainly yellow and orange (lighter) convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

Dry air and shear really seems to be intruding on Ophelia.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

[tronbunny]

Is it me or does it appear the dry air might be eating away at the western side of Ophelia?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like a sqeezeplay to me.
If that ridge is really strong, logic would have me thinking that O will have no choice but to be swept east (but the dry air to the SE looks like it could block too), slide SW toward the path of least resistance, or be ripped up in a shear between the two highs (I wish).
That's just from a visual observation on that WV loop.
I do not know the full nature of the features I see there.
So, if someone much more knowledgeable would comment on that loop, I sure would appreciate it!