Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[Brent]

It appears that the UKMET has done the best so far...or am I just imaging that?


I do think the GFS and those accompanied with it are underestimating the ridge.

Time will tell.

That ridge is holding strong, but still moving west. Isn't it forecasted to move out NE? When should this occur?

Not til Thursday/Friday... that's why it doesn't turn til then.

Oh cool.

Well that's when it's SUPPOSED to recede... doesn't mean it will. Recedes earlier, well that's bad news farther east, doesn't recede, bad news farther south.

[dwg71]

At this point I'm leaning towards a later pullout rather than a sooner one. If its Friday, its going to be south TX. If its THursday, then Mid TX coast, if its Wednesday, then its upper texas coast.

I would say brownsville to galveston is best estimate. Ridge building west leads me to believe it going to be closer to Brownsville than Houston.

[Brent]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Holy Crap!

Can someone tell me what the numbers on the right side of the loop mean?

Has to be something related to the cloud tops

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DOPPLER RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Stratosphere747]

The faster movement may mean that landfall could possibly occur earlier, thus limiting the amount of time of the northward movement.

[cjrciadt]

Steve Lyons just said on TWC recon has found a Cat1 cane. 9:15AM

[dwg71]

Where does global model consensous landfall look like. Is it stil south of NHC track?

[Anonymous]

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DOPPLER RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA


$$
NNNN

[loon]

hrm..slow 11am...maybe its a doosey?

[Brent]

*waits impatiently*

I have a bad feeling...

[Brent]

Philippe advisories aren't out yet either...

[CronkPSU]

i don't think the lateness is anything but making sure they add the latest recon stuff into the advisory and discussion

[cycloneye]

*waits impatiently*

I have a bad feeling...

What bad feeling?

[feederband]

* crickets chearping *

[Brent]

*waits impatiently*

I have a bad feeling...

What bad feeling?

Not sure... stronger than 65 kt??

[loon]

*slow creepy organ playing in the background*

[Brent]

*slow creepy organ playing in the background*

I don't think I've ever seen a package not come out til this late... intermediates yes, but not the big advisories.

[feederband]

* crickets chearping faster*

[loon]

Well, I think either A) landfall will be sooner than expected, rushing the evac times of wherever she goes. or B) its heading to Mexico or LA now..heh

[Brent]

Well, I think either A) landfall will be sooner than expected, rushing the evac times of wherever she goes. or B) its heading to Mexico or LA now..heh

That's what I'm thinking... not the Mexico thing though. Models are tightly clustered on Texas.