Hurricane Emily Advisories

[HURAKAN]

Emily's "center" is already leaving the Yucatan Peninsula through the northwestern side.

[Lowpressure]

Overall structure looks good and cdo is well intact. Look for strengthening to commence once entire core clears land- soon.

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z MON JUL 18 2005

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 40SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 125SE 50SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.8N 91.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 15SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 25SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 75SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.5N 104.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 89.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

...EMILY HEADING FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO REGAIN
STRENGTH....

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 540
MILES... 870 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 575
MILES... 925 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.8 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

Landfall now 85 miles south of Brownsville...

[Brent]

HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
EMILY IS BACK OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL
WELL-ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE REACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY. EMILY IS CURRENTLY OVER
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH NORMALLY PREVAILS NEAR THE NORTH
COAST OF YUCATAN...BUT LATER TODAY...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER-LOW IS STILL IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALL GLOBAL MODELS
GET RID OF THE LOW AND DEVELOP A WELL-DEFINED 200 MB HIGH OVER THE
CYCLONE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOW SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK.
THEREFORE...RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND EMILY IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

EMILY...AS ANTICIPATED...IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN
295 AND 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS...AROUND A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. A WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY INDUCE A
SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER...THE WEAKNESS
IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE
EMILY TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS
THE CENTER OF EMILY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

UPPER-AIR DATA FROM CANCUN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY BOTH
THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY
USEFUL IN TRACKING AND FORECASTING EMILY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 21.8N 89.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 22.8N 91.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 24.5N 96.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 25.0N 99.2W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 21/1200Z 25.5N 104.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A WEAKER EMILY...RE-STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED....

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO ROJO MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO CAMPECHE. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490
MILES...785 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 510
MILES... 820 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY WEAKENED
OVER YUCATAN AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR
75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HOWEVER...RE-STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED AND EMILY COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ON THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...22.0 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[JTD]

Wow!!! the news keeps getting better and better Anyone want to go out on a limb and say tropical storm at 5?

[jkt21787]

Wow!!! the news keeps getting better and better Anyone want to go out on a limb and say tropical storm at 5?

I think you're giving a false impression too soon. This storm will still get back together, I doubt its gets more weaker, only stronger.

[Brent]

Wow!!! the news keeps getting better and better Anyone want to go out on a limb and say tropical storm at 5?

No... 984 mb is STILL a hurricane. It's not a tropical storm. Dennis did this exact same thing and made it back to a Cat 4.

[JTD]

Dennis did indeed re-generate, very true. Well...let's wait and see what she does. It is most definitely too early to know yet.

[djtil]

i think it would be a complete fluke if intensification didnt happen, especially after about 12-24 hours.

[cycloneye]

Certainly with this update the intensity forecast will have to be reduced to a cat 2 instead a cat 3 unless it begins to bomb rapidly.

[Pebbles]

WOW I wouldn't of ever imagined minimal cat 1 after the Yucatan... but makes me happy to hear for the sake of those in Northern Mexico and southern TX! One thing Emily has against her compared to Dennis is less time over water to intensify. Will give she is going into hot hot waters though.. so can't rule out how much of a rebound she may make. Have to think above cat 3 would be tough with the timing issue...

[Brent]

WOW I wouldn't of ever imagined minimal cat 1 after the Yucatan... but makes me happy to hear for the sake of those in Northern Mexico and southern TX! One thing Emily has against her compared to Dennis is less time over water to intensify. Will give she is going into hot hot waters though.. so can't rule out how much of a rebound she may make. Have to think above cat 3 would be tough with the timing issue...

Emily has 36 hours til landfall... Dennis had about 30 hours from the time he left Cuba til he made landfall, and the waters are undisturbed. The inner core didn't collapse so there's no reason why this won't intensity.

[jkt21787]

I just hope people in TX or Mexico don't start to write this storm off now, it still has the potential to have a bombing period in the next 24 hours or so before landfall, that easily could get it back to a major hurricane.

[cycloneye]

I just hope people in TX or Mexico don't start to write this storm off now, it still has the potential to have a bombing period in the next 24 hours or so before landfall, that easily could get it back to a major hurricane.

Important statement there about the Mexican and Southern Texas people looking at this update saying it will not be as strong when it got into Yucatan.

[HURAKAN]

It's curious to see that since this morning Dvorak classification has been 4.0 or 75 mph. Which was contradicting NHC's statement of 100 mph winds.

18/1145 UTC 21.4N 89.0W T4.0/4.0 EMILY

[Pebbles]

Emily has 36 hours til landfall... Dennis had about 30 hours from the time he left Cuba til he made landfall, and the waters are undisturbed. The inner core didn't collapse so there's no reason why this won't intensity.

Well don't I feel sheepish.. she's been chuggin along at a pretty good clip so thought she wasn't going to take all that long ...what i get for talking before looking at the track timing.. I take back my timing statement...

[deltadog03]

I don't think she will even make it back to a cat 3....she looks horrible right now...thats a combo of cooler water and shear from the ULL....BTW is not moving currently....it was suppose to be gone by now...