Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[x-y-no]

Key West now reporting sustained winds of 43mph gusting to 53mph. It is all down hill from here.

Don't want to get too off topic, but the lacadasical and ignorant attitude that I have seen in S FL is very alarming and disturbing. I pray that we do not see more countless deaths from this hurricane.

Yeah, some of my neighbors thought I was silly doing all the preparations I was. And when I went down to South Miami late this morning to put up my parents' shutters, barely one house in ten in that neighborhood had shutters on.

But most disturbing is how few people evacuated the Keys. Bad, bad decision, IMHO.

[canetracker]

Ok they just said on CNN that Key West is 18 INCHES above sea level,
is facing a likely minimum 8 foot storm surge with large waves on top of
that...and most people haven't evacuated ? Are people crazy or what ?

18 inches???? I am in suburbia New Orleans and 11 feet above sea level...the rim of the bowl. Wow!

[gatorcane]

CAT 3 for SE FL Metro Palm Beach/Broward/Dade.

Most local mets were calling for a CAT1 or maybe CAT 2.

I'm afraid what is going to happen tomorrow.

[CronkPSU]

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg">

[krysof]

And if Wilma wants to cause more tremendous damage she did something quite smart. She weakened a lot, stalled, caused people to stop worrying, stop evacuating, and now she's strenghtening back up to major hurricane status when people can do nothing about it and its too late to do anything.

[Rainband]

I am in New Port Richey. When should I see worse weather and TS winds?

I don't think you will see TS winds. We're barely even going to get TS winds here in Sarasota.

With all due respect!!!! Whatever you are drinking step away from it and read the NWS site!!! Don't post information like that ever again or your time here will be limited.
I trust I am clear!!


Overnight: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then periods of rain after 2am. Steady temperature around 76. Windy, with a east northeast wind 24 to 27 mph increasing to between 36 and 39 mph. Winds could gust as high as 59 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Monday: Periods of rain, mainly before 11am. Temperature falling to around 67 by 5pm. Windy, with a north northeast wind 37 to 40 mph decreasing to between 29 and 32 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 49. North northwest wind 21 to 24 mph decreasing to between 10 and 13 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high around 69. North northwest wind between 10 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

[ALhurricane]

AL, unfortunately the media often finds those people who are not taking it seriously in order to have something to talk about and to use them as examples of their point. How boring would the news casts be if the reporter kept having to say "well, we're out here all alone. Everyone has followed instructions and is inside for the night." Personally, most everyone I know has taken this seriously and is as prepared as possible.

While I agree somewhat, the truth is that during Rita it was clear that people got the heck out and it was reported as such. In this case, all outlets are showing that only 5-7% of the people down there got out. I am glad to hear that the people you know has taken it seriously.

I just have a great fear that this is going to be much worse than it really should be and I usually don't say such things. I hope I am proven wrong.

[storms in NC]

Well I know One of thoes that is not taking it seriously. That would be my Daughter. She lives in Ft Myers. I just got off the phone with her and she said it is only a 2 that is what they said on tv and that they only thing they are worried about is the(TV) storm surges. Told me not to worrie every thing was fine. Is this what they are tell people there? if it is I will make sure they will hear from me. Not a happy MOM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

She is starting to look like her old self...I think 130 mph for landfall...

[NC George]

Just heard - violent waterspout 13 miles S of Key W, moving N at 60 mph. Right off CNN.

[soonertwister]

Violent waterspout just reported 13 miles south of Key West, moving north at 60 mph.

Would put it at KW in 10 minutes, maybe less.

[johngaltfla]

So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

From Typhoon_tip on CFHC:

(yes, he's a met)

Seriously, SRS - Storm Relative Shear is exactly what it sounds like... relativity... To the hurricane, the wind that is shear impactive may have the physical presents of say 5mph, which is generally not enough to inhibit strengthening. If Wilma was translating along at say...10mph, that physical presents becomes 10mph. If she were standing still, she'd be encounter all of the environmental wind field's capacity to impinge on her vertical structure, or 20mph... (I'm not saying the envir. field is 20mph - just a facsimile)... Anyway, her storm relative shear is quite low when she's already 15 or 16mph, because all the wind barbs I've seen since 00z have been about 18kts... after conversion, she's in for what...6mph of shear... Nah, not gonna touch her.

[thermos]

Derek Ort concerned about Keys in his blog:
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/blo ... ndex.shtml

Conditions have started to deteriorate in the lower Keys. Winds are sustained at near tropical storm force already. At RSMAS, on the Rickenbacker Causeway just east of Miami, where I am riding the storm out, winds are gusting to 35 mph. Conditions will continue to deteriorate through the evening.

Tidal surges may cause a large loss of life, if the southern eye wall passes over the lower Keys. Only about 20 percent of the 78,000 residents evacuated the Florida Keys.

[Scorpion]

Wow, eye looks headed right in my direction. 110-115 kts is definitely possible before landfall. She wouldn't weaken much with her forward speed. I could get Cat 2 conditions.

[edbri871]

I'm in south fort myers. For the last day they were telling people a cat 1 or low 2. Now it looks like a cat 3. Only about 50% of homes and business's are boarded up here (well the last I drove around at 7pm). There are a lot of people staying here. The news does talk a lot about the surge which should not affect Fort myers since we'll be on the north side. But winds should be a problem.

[NC George]

Hey Storms in NC - I live about an hour and a half N of you. I bought the car I'm driving in Wallace a couple of weeks ago!

Only good news about Wilma - looks to me like it will hit the unpopulated Everglades, and all the stuff of the W coast of Florida will be on the weaker side of the storm, and the east coast will have the peninsula as a buffer. Tornados could be the biggest threat from this storm, IHMO.

Flooding reported in Key W.

[canetracker]

Well I know One of thoes that is not taking it seriously. That would be my Daughter. She lives in Ft Myers. I just got off the phone with her and she said it is only a 2 that is what they said on tv and that they only thing they are worried about is the(TV) storm surges. Told me not to worrie every thing was fine. Is this what they are tell people there? if it is I will make sure they will hear from me. Not a happy MOM

Can relate. When Rita hit, my son would not leave. Know what you are going through. Prayer, lots of worry and frequent calls to him got me through. He turned out to be okay and prayerfully your daughter will too

[Patrick99]

In Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, people usually do not leave for hurricanes the way you saw people leave in Louisiana and Texas. They never have, and they probably never will. The people right on the coast leave. For them, and whoever else wishes to evacuate, we have inland shelters in strong structures that are *not* "shelters of last resort" a la the Superdome.

The system here has worked quite well, IMO - there have been few deaths on the FL peninsula from landfalling hurricanes, even including Andrew. This system also has the added benefit of not making I-95 a parking lot.

[johngaltfla]

I am in New Port Richey. When should I see worse weather and TS winds?

I don't think you will see TS winds. We're barely even going to get TS winds here in Sarasota.

Do what?

Better re-read the forecasts. The further north this sucker tracks, the more intense our winds. We'll get 50-70 per our local mets. And that's not counting F1 to F3 tornadoes.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I am in New Port Richey. When should I see worse weather and TS winds?

I don't think you will see TS winds. We're barely even going to get TS winds here in Sarasota.

Wow your the only person I heard that from. Everyone is forecasting them deffinitely for our area?

Matt