Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

#5021 Postby **CronkPSU** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:55 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:I've noticed that, now that Wilma's strengthening, stronger winds are being found in the northern half of the storm (e.g., the 114KT flight-level wind recently reported in the northeast quadrant). This indicates strengthening, in my opinion, and that the north part of the storm is now starting to catch up to the supposed stronger south part of the storm. Who agrees?

who has that windmap.....earlier this afternoon, showed no hurricane force winds north of the eye...would liek to see that now

#5022 Postby **ALhurricane** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:55 pm

Key West now reporting sustained winds of 43mph gusting to 53mph. It is all down hill from here.

Don't want to get too off topic, but the lacadasical and ignorant attitude that I have seen in S FL is very alarming and disturbing. I pray that we do not see more countless deaths from this hurricane.

gtalum · #5023 Postby **gtalum** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:56 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:I am in New Port Richey. When should I see worse weather and TS winds?

I don't think you will see TS winds. We're barely even going to get TS winds here in Sarasota.

6SpeedTA95 · #5024 Postby **6SpeedTA95** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:57 pm

soonertwister wrote:Latest recon had 118 mph surface winds.

Indeed

this isn't lookin good she's stacked on 13mph in the matter of about 4 hours

#5025 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:57 pm

boca_chris wrote:So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

I think 2005 happened to it!
:wink:

ronjon · #5026 Postby **ronjon** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:58 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

It was forcasted to strengthen once off the yucatan but shear and dry air would limit the strengthening and I think it is indeed effecting it but not as much as previously thought for a couple reasons. She got off the yucatan ahead of forcast, and alpha may be keeping her just a bit further south than forcasted with most of the shear just to her north the core of the storm is not being directly affected by the 20kt shear.

The storm is moving in tandem with the direction of shear - so, if there is 20kts of shear and she is moving at 15 kts, then a paltry 6 mph of actual shear that is taking place. Dry Air? Well that didn't seem to bother Katrina or Rita. The answer here I think is the Loop Current.

#5027 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:58 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Key West now reporting sustained winds of 43mph gusting to 53mph. It is all down hill from here.

Don't want to get too off topic, but the lacadasical and ignorant attitude that I have seen in S FL is very alarming and disturbing. I pray that we do not see more countless deaths from this hurricane.

Yes AL that is incredible.I saw footage at CNN of people doing partys at Key West.

jkt21787 · #5028 Postby **jkt21787** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:59 pm

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EYEWALL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED... THEN WILMA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE 11 PM ADVISORY.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

#5029 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:59 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Key West now reporting sustained winds of 43mph gusting to 53mph. It is all down hill from here.

Don't want to get too off topic, but the lacadasical and ignorant attitude that I have seen in S FL is very alarming and disturbing. I pray that we do not see more countless deaths from this hurricane.

I agree, I also saw the fools dancing and partying in the streets of Key West. This is starting to have a bad taste to it.

#5030 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:59 pm

AL - if it makes you feel any better, my hubby and I walked around our neighborhood about 20 minutes ago and the majority of the folks here are boarded up and in for the night. I was impressed to see it. It's the most I've ever seen shuttered here, that's for sure.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #5031 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:00 pm

Looks like our country holded strong through Katrina then Rita...But Wilma if it hits Miami could hurt us badly...

#5032 Postby **canetracker** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:04 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Key West now reporting sustained winds of 43mph gusting to 53mph. It is all down hill from here.

Don't want to get too off topic, but the lacadasical and ignorant attitude that I have seen in S FL is very alarming and disturbing. I pray that we do not see more countless deaths from this hurricane.

Saw that same attitude here in New Orleans. Really and am continually praying that all will be safe.

#5033 Postby **ALhurricane** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:04 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:AL - if it makes you feel any better, my hubby and I walked around our neighborhood about 20 minutes ago and the majority of the folks here are boarded up and in for the night. I was impressed to see it. It's the most I've ever seen shuttered here, that's for sure.

That does make me feel somewhat better. Your community should be commended. It can never hurt to prepare, but it can hurt a whole lot if you don't.

My big fear is for the Keys. All those people that stayed are going to soon realize they made a mistake.

vaffie · #5034 Postby **vaffie** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:05 pm

Yes, I feel so sad too, sad and helpless. They may party at Key West tonight, but tomorrow will be a day of tears for the whole country when Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Naples, Key West, West Palm Beach all experience the eyewall of an intensifying Cat 3/4 storm rampaging at 30 mph through their beautiful state. We can only pray and wait...
I read earlier in the year that Category 5 force winds hitting Miami could produce an estimated $100 billion. It could be so bad...

fasterdisaster · #5035 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:06 pm

jkt21787 wrote:HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EYEWALL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED... THEN WILMA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE 11 PM ADVISORY.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

Very near Category 3?! It is!

SWFLMom · #5036 Postby **SWFLMom** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:06 pm

DrStorm wrote:Anyone on here in Naples right now? Looks like some ugly weather approaching the area now.

I am, so far all we have is a little breeze and some sprinkles but that will change soon.

krysof · #5037 Postby **krysof** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:06 pm

TWC reported that some of the counties in south florida only had 7-8% of the people evacuated. I fear that when all said and done, deaths could be unusually high.

Praxus · #5038 Postby **Praxus** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:09 pm

Ok they just said on CNN that Key West is 18 INCHES above sea level,
is facing a likely minimum 8 foot storm surge with large waves on top of
that...and most people haven't evacuated ? Are people crazy or what ?

:eek:

#5039 Postby **wsquared77** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:09 pm

AL, unfortunately the media often finds those people who are not taking it seriously in order to have something to talk about and to use them as examples of their point. How boring would the news casts be if the reporter kept having to say "well, we're out here all alone. Everyone has followed instructions and is inside for the night." :roll:

Personally, most everyone I know has taken this seriously and is as prepared as possible.

#5040 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:10 pm

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EYEWALL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED... THEN WILMA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE 11 PM ADVISORY.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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