TD 27,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[superfly]

Nothing is going to get to Florida without running into a wall of shear first.

[gatorcane]

that shear is forecasted to relax over the next couple of days...

Also please look carefully that the shear tendency is max +10 knots over South Florida, more like 5 knots...that is not that bad especially if it picks up strength over the next 48 hours with no shear.

[mike815]

It is going to reelax a bit may keep this from being a hurr maybe a strong TS. Time will tell.

[WxGuy1]

that shear is forecasted to relax over the next couple of days...

Also please look carefully that the shear tendency is max +10 knots over South Florida, more like 5 knots...that is not that bad especially if it picks up strength over the next 48 hours with no shear.

Perhaps "relax" from 40+ kts to maybe 30kts, but no dynamics model that I can find shows shear lower than 30kts at any time during the next few days north of a Yucatan to Cuba line (which is, presumably, what you'd be interested in if you are concerned with a Florida impact). 30kts is destructive.

GFS shear forecast: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

NOGAPS shear forecast: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

CMC shear forecast: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

As long as the subtropical jet remains over the Gulf of Mexico, significant shear will remain entrenched across that area. Shear south of Cuba shouldnt' be too bad, however. I do think we could see a strong TD or stronger is the system develops and remains south of Cuba. However, as for any Florida impact, if the storm does move up that way (which no dynamical model suggests), it will most likely be ripped apart unless the subtrop jet moves farther north (which no models forecast).

[gatorcane]

The problem is that even a strong T.S. with wind gusts to 70 mph + and a fast moving storm much like Wilma will really impact S. Florida since they are still recovering from Wilma....

power outages will happen again

[SouthFloridawx]

what is gfdl thinking here

[WxGuy1]

I believe that the GFDL gets it's boundary conditions from the GFS. The GFS is forecasting the development of a huge upper-level trough and massive cyclogenesis, in a semi-typical nor'easter fashion, across the eastern seaboard this weekend and next week. The initial low you see near Florida, I believe, is the initial stage of the extrapical low that the GFS bombs out as it heads up the east coast. The GFDL obviously remains focused on the current storm and moves it south of central Cuba.

[superfly]

that shear is forecasted to relax over the next couple of days...

Also please look carefully that the shear tendency is max +10 knots over South Florida, more like 5 knots...that is not that bad especially if it picks up strength over the next 48 hours with no shear.

That's only the shear tendency. The actual shear is indicated by the colors in the background showing 40+ kts of shear.

[P.K.]

I believe that the GFDL gets it's boundary conditions from the GFS.

Yes the GFDL is run off the GFS.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 181040
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

CORRECTED FOR RE-TRANSMISSION

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN... IN COMBINATION
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN HONDURAS
COAST... ARE PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
HONDURAS COAST... AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REPORTS FROM
NEARBY NOAA BUOYS 42056 AND 42057 INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM-FORCE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN BRIEF HEAVY SQUALLS. EVEN IF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR... HEAVY RAINS CAUSING
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS OF HONDURAS... BELIZE... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WESTERN
CUBA... AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
TPC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIAHSFAT2 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC.




5:30 AM TWO

[mike815]

Its getting closer.

[cycloneye]

A 1005 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W DRIFTING NW
WITH A SURFACE EXTENDING NE TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WHERE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ARE ALSO MOVING NW.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS COMBINED ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85.5W TO 18N84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM OFF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N81W
INLAND OVER HONDURAS TO NEAR 15N87W. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INTO
SAT. EVEN IF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...HEAVY
RAINS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

7 PM EST Discussion.

[mike815]

1005 mb and conditions are improving may Skip TD status i think.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 181217
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.4 84.8 290./ 7.0
6 16.2 85.1 246./ 3.4
12 16.6 86.6 283./14.4
18 16.5 86.6 166./ .8
24 16.6 87.0 282./ 3.8
30 16.9 87.6 299./ 7.0
36 17.5 88.0 327./ 6.6
42 17.7 88.1 345./ 2.7
48 17.9 87.8 54./ 3.0
54 18.8 87.4 24./ 9.5
60 20.5 86.9 18./17.3
66 21.8 85.9 36./15.8
72 23.1 84.6 45./17.7
78 24.5 83.1 47./20.3
84 25.7 80.9 61./22.5
90 27.3 78.5 56./27.0
96 29.4 75.4 56./34.0
102 32.5 72.0 48./42.7
108 36.9 68.9 36./50.7
114 41.0 67.6 18./42.9
120 43.9 66.4 22./30.0
126 47.6 65.6 12./37.4


6z GFDL

[HeatherAKC]

Well, well. Isn't this special?

Happy Thanksgiving. Brought to you by the BBQ grill and a can of Sterno?

[DESTRUCTION5]

WHXX04 KWBC 181217
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SE 27L

INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.4 84.8 290./ 7.0
6 16.2 85.1 246./ 3.4
12 16.6 86.6 283./14.4
18 16.5 86.6 166./ .8
24 16.6 87.0 282./ 3.8
30 16.9 87.6 299./ 7.0
36 17.5 88.0 327./ 6.6
42 17.7 88.1 345./ 2.7
48 17.9 87.8 54./ 3.0
54 18.8 87.4 24./ 9.5
60 20.5 86.9 18./17.3
66 21.8 85.9 36./15.8
72 23.1 84.6 45./17.7
78 24.5 83.1 47./20.3
84 25.7 80.9 61./22.5
90 27.3 78.5 56./27.0
96 29.4 75.4 56./34.0
102 32.5 72.0 48./42.7
108 36.9 68.9 36./50.7
114 41.0 67.6 18./42.9
120 43.9 66.4 22./30.0
126 47.6 65.6 12./37.4


6z GFDL

GFDL lost it too with a SFL hit...

[DESTRUCTION5]

I do Think we are looking at Gamma This morning..1st visibles show a definate LLC with low clouds streaming in...

[CHRISTY]

i agree but you post a link of that visible your looking at thanks.yep convection continues to flare up .

[mike815]

I just think the NHC is waiting on the recon plane to have a fix on it.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEV (AL272005) ON 20051118 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051118 1200 051119 0000 051119 1200 051120 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 85.5W 17.3N 87.1W 18.5N 88.2W 20.6N 88.8W
BAMM 16.5N 85.5W 16.8N 87.2W 17.2N 88.4W 17.8N 89.3W
A98E 16.5N 85.5W 16.9N 86.5W 17.4N 87.4W 18.3N 88.1W
LBAR 16.5N 85.5W 17.2N 86.7W 18.9N 87.4W 21.2N 87.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS 33KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 31KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051120 1200 051121 1200 051122 1200 051123 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.0N 87.4W 33.0N 76.1W 31.4N 52.5W 23.5N 47.8W
BAMM 18.9N 89.7W 23.6N 85.1W 32.5N 74.9W 41.6N 70.8W
A98E 19.8N 88.0W 24.4N 83.9W 32.3N 74.5W 37.3N 66.3W
LBAR 24.5N 85.3W 31.8N 73.4W 30.2N 56.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 85.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 84.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 81.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models